The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: Josh Kushner and Bob Iger are buying the Los Angeles Lakers for a record $12 billion. This marks the highest price ever paid for a professional sports franchise.

BREAKING: Gold future surge above $4,500/oz for the first time since June 5th. This puts gold futures up +14% since July 17. The gold market knows exactly what is coming next. x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…

BREAKING: Market expectations for a September rate hike fall to 34% after US CPI inflation declines to 3.4%. This marks the lowest chance of a September rate hike since July 17th. Odds of a September rate hike are now HALF of what they were on July 27th. x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…

BREAKING: July CPI inflation falls to 3.4%, in-line with expectations of 3.4% Core CPI inflation falls to 2.5%, also in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Month-over-month CPI inflation rose +0.1%, up from -0.4% in June. US stock market futures are rising on the news.

BREAKING: President Trump's capital gains tax cut discussions include "indexing" capital gains for inflation BEFORE taxes are calculated. This would mean that taxes would be applied on gains adjusted for inflation. For example, if you purchased a stock for $100,000 and sold it 5 years later for $200,000. Under the current system, you would owe capital gains taxes on the full $100,000 gain. But, if cumulative inflation over those 5 years was 20%, your inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $120,000. This means you would only owe capital gains taxes on the $80,000 REAL gain, rather than the $100,000 nominal gain. Trump has also suggested exemptions for sales of homes worth $2 million or less from capital gains taxes. We expect more details soon.

BREAKING: President Trump is weighing a cut to capital gains taxes ahead of midterm elections, per Bloomberg. There has not been a major cut to capital gains tax rates in the US since 2003. This would have massive implications if implemented.

The US government is ramping up hiring: Government job openings jumped +10,000 in June, to 823,000, the highest since June 2025. This marks the 4th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +98,000. Since November 2025, available vacancies in the government have surged +165,000. Meanwhile, federal government job openings rose +39,000 in June, to 139,000, the highest since October 2024. This marks the largest monthly increase since May 2024. Government hiring is soaring.

A handful of stocks now dominate US market trading: Nvidia, $NVDA, is the most actively traded stock in the US market, accounting for 3.0% of total market notional volume year-to-date. This is followed by Micron, $MU, at 2.8%, Tesla, $TSLA, at 2.1%, and SanDisk, $SNDK, at 1.5%. Together, the 10 most-traded stocks have accounted for an average of 16.4% of total market notional volume YTD. Meanwhile, some of these names have worse liquidity than the average S&P 500 stock, with SanDisk posting an average bid-ask spread of 12.4 basis points, more than double the S&P 500's 5.9 basis point average. Tesla, Microsoft, $MSFT, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, also have smaller average order sizes available at the best bid and offer than the typical S&P 500 stock, suggesting thinner liquidity despite their enormous trading volumes. A few stocks a driving a massive amount of market volume.

Investors are hedging less. The 1-month put-to-call skew is down to 1.15 points, the lowest since April 2025. This metric measures how much more investors are paying for downside protection against a stock market drop compared with bets on further gains. Skew has fallen -0.13 points over the last 4 weeks, a similar decline to the one seen in April 2025 following the "Liberation Day" selloff and subsequent tariff pause relief rally. Furthermore, the 3-month call skew is up to 0.9 points, the highest in at least 12 months. This metric measures how much more investors are paying for far-out-of-the-money call options, which only pay off in a large market rally, compared to at-the-money calls. Investor risk appetite is off the charts.

BREAKING: Monthly stablecoin card spending volumes surged another +16% in July, to a record $1.03 billion. This marks +200% year-over-year volume growth with over 10 million purchases made during July. The growth has comes amid surging demand for instant settlement and global access, which stablecoin cards provide. Jupiter, the world's largest onchain platform has also driven adoption through localized integrations, like QR-based payments and accessibility across 60+ countries, with 68% of volume coming from non-US users. To put this into perspective, just 3 years ago, monthly crypto payment card volume was at just $1 million. We expect to see $1.5+ billion in monthly volume by year-end.

BREAKING: Trump Media says more than 10 customers have signed up for "Truth API" which provides faster access to President Trump's Truth Social posts. The earliest customers are mostly high-frequency trading firms who are being charged between $60,000 and $100,000 per month.

BREAKING: US jobs numbers have now been revised lower in 21 out of the last 30 months by a total of -1.05 million jobs. This means an average of -35,067 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month over this period. June and May jobs numbers alone were revised down by a total of -103,000, the largest 2-month downward revision since July 2025. This comes as June jobs were revised down by -37,000, to +20,000, while May jobs were revised down by -66,000, to +63,000. The May jobs figure was revised down for the 2nd time, following a -43,000 downward revision last month from the initially reported +172,000 jobs. If these revisions continue, June jobs could be revised into negative territory next month, which, combined with July's already reported -23,000 job loss, would mark the 2nd consecutive monthly decline in jobs, the first such occurrence since the 2020 pandemic. Job market revisions are alarming.

Retail investors are rushing back into gold: The largest US physical-gold backed ETF, $GLD, attracted +$50 million in retail inflows on Wednesday, the largest daily inflow since March. This was also twice the previous largest daily inflow recorded since early April. Overall, $GLD attracted +$637 million in inflows on Wednesday, the largest daily inflow since June 18th. Subsequently, the fund posted +$77 million and +$431 million in inflows on Thursday and Friday, respectively. So far in August, investors have added +$1.4 billion to $GLD, putting the ETF on track for its first monthly inflow since February. Investor appetite for gold is back.

We are witnessing the largest CapEx spending spree in history. Hyperscalers have committed a record $2.6 trillion in future spending across data center leases and equipment purchases. This includes leases for data centers and power infrastructure that have not yet commenced, and existing purchase contracts for equipment and services. These obligations do not appear on company balance sheets and are disclosed only in limited accounting footnotes, despite their enormous size and duration. Alphabet, $GOOGL, has the largest total, with $811 billion in purchase commitments and $85 billion in leases not yet commenced, bringing its combined obligations to ~$896 billion. By contrast, Oracle, $ORCL, has committed $32 billion to purchases, but $260 billion to leases that have not yet commenced, the largest lease obligation among the group, bringing its total to ~$292 billion. The AI buildout has become one of the largest long-term capital commitments in corporate history.

US housing affordability is deteriorating: The average 30Y fixed mortgage rate rose +3 basis points last week, to 6.69%, the highest since July 2025. This marks the 5th consecutive weekly increase, with rates up +71 basis points since the Iran War began in late-February. This comes as the 10Y Treasury yield, which mortgage lenders use to price 30Y loans, has surged +70 basis points over the same period, driven by inflation concerns. On a $500,000 mortgage, this increase translates to more than +$200 in additional monthly principal and interest payments compared to late February, when rates briefly fell below 6% for the first time since 2022. The 30Y fixed mortgage rate could rise to 7% for the first time since January 2025 before year-end if current inflationary pressures persist. The US housing affordability crisis is worsening.

BREAKING: Intel, $INTC, is seeking to increase the amount it is raising in a share sale from $15 billion to $20 billion, per Bloomberg. The share sale has reportedly drawn more than $100 billion in demand.

Global record highs have arrived. The number of countries in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) making new 52-week highs is up to 28, the highest since February. This figure has more than quadrupled since April. Over this period, the MSCI ACWI has surged +20% to a fresh all-time high. The index has also remained above its 80-week moving average for 16 consecutive months, highlighting strong momentum across global equities. Furthermore, none of the 70 countries in the index are making new 52-week lows. By comparison, 47 countries were making new 52-week highs in January, the highest number on record, suggesting the current breadth still has significant room to expand. Global equity momentum is showing remarkable strength.

Big Tech's AI spending is rising to levels rarely seen in modern history: Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT, and Oracle, $ORCL, are estimated to increase CapEx by +1.0 percentage point of US GDP in 2026, to a record 2.4%. That compares with 1.0% of GDP spent on CapEx by broadcasting and telecommunications companies in 1999. By 2027, Big Tech CapEx is projected to more than double to 3.1% of GDP, from 1.4% in 2025. By comparison, broadcasting and telecom CapEx peaked at 1.2% of GDP in 2000. To put this into perspective, Big Tech CapEx stood at 0.8% of GDP in 2024, the same level telecom CapEx recorded in 1997. The AI investment boom is materially exceeding the capital spending surge of the Dot-Com era.

BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is set to announce a $500 billion AI financing effort in partnership with Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR, and Brookfield, per CNBC. Details include: 1. The move comes as tech companies are increasingly looking to raise debt to finance AI projects 2. For Nvidia, the effort could help its biggest customers secure the financing needed to buy its GPUs, build data centers, and lock in long-term electricity capacity 3. The deal could be announced as soon as today, sources say The AI buildout is prompting a historic wave of debt issuance.

BREAKING: US oil prices surge over +5% to $82/barrel after President Trump says the US is now demanding compensation from Iran. x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…

BREAKING: President Trump says the U.S. is now demanding compensation from Iran. x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…

BREAKING: Crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve officially fall below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Inventories declined by another 6.1 million barrels last week, to 298.7 million barrels. US oil reserves are at a 40+ year low.

BREAKING: Global technology funds have attracted a record +$131 billion in inflows year-to-date. This is already ~$50 billion above the full-year all-time high set in 2025. Tech fund inflows are also on track for their 4th consecutive annual increase. If this pace continues, tech fund inflows are set to rise to a record +$216 billion for the full year. Meanwhile, US equity funds attracted +$9.6 billion last week, putting them on track for +$652 billion in inflows in 2026, the largest annual total on record. Technology funds are seeing unprecedented demand.

BREAKING: Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM, reported a +45% YoY increase in sales in July, to $14.5 billion, driven by explosive demand for AI chips. $TSM, the primary chip manufacturer used by companies such as Nvidia, $NVDA, and Apple, $AAPL, generated $89.1 billion in revenue in the first 7 months of the year, up +37% YoY. The chipmaker also raised its 2026 CapEx outlook to a record $60-64 billion range and expects full-year sales to grow slightly above +40% YoY. For the current quarter, the company is estimated to deliver +47% YoY sales growth. Meanwhile, $TSM shares listed in Taiwan are up +50% year-to-date, more than double the +20% gain in $NVDA. Demand for AI chips shows no signs of slowing.

BREAKING: Intel stock, $INTC, falls -5% after announcing a $15 billion in common stock issuance to help fund its AI buildout and "growth opportunities." x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…