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@KobeissiLetter Thanks for the helpful breakdown. Your stock analysis is clear and easy to follow without unnecessary noise. You and @JimRambo8 are the two accounts I watch most.

@KobeissiLetter Yield chasing matters less when duration risk starts dominating decisions

This is a clear example of investors prioritising duration management over headline yield. With the 30 year Treasury yield back near 2007 levels, the mark to market risk of long dated bonds can easily outweigh their additional income. Treasury Bills may offer less yield, but they provide liquidity, capital stability and flexibility while the rate outlook remains uncertain. In this environment, patience is not inactivity. It is risk management. 📊💵 Please read my latest X: x.com/tekkaus/status/209223961…

@KobeissiLetter The flow split is real, but “moving away” misses the bigger trade: intermediate-term bond ETFs took $60 billion in H1, ahead of both bills and long duration. This is duration selectivity.

BREAKING 🚨: TURKEY PRESIDENT ERDOGAN ON ISRAEL & SYRIA: “We are not going to stop supporting our neighbors in getting back on their feet just because criminal networks with the blood of innocent people on their hands are disturbed by it. The foreign policy of this country is determined solely and exclusively by the Turkish nation. No actor other than the nation can dictate the course or set the limits of Turkey’s foreign policy.”

@KobeissiLetter $51B into T-bill ETFs versus $7B into long bonds tells you everything. Investors are paying for safety, not yield.

@KobeissiLetter treasury bills: $51b. long bonds: $7b and a participation trophy

T-bills are winning because investors are choosing optionality over extra yield. A long-bond ETF may pay more, but it also moves a lot more when rates move; that “duration” risk is the price volatility people are avoiding. +$51B into bill ETFs versus +$7B into long bonds says the market still wants income with an exit door nearby.

@KobeissiLetter Makes sense when the extra yield comes with that much more duration risk. Sometimes the lower return is worth the flexibility.

#BREAKING: China directly rejects the idea that China would change its behaviors and interactions with Iran to comply with Trump's demands in Bessent's new "Operation Economic Outcast" campaign, saying "China's cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law, thus should not be disrupted. China is closely following the developments, and will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests," per China’s MFA spokesperson Lin Jian. China declares it "has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law. Economic warfare and maximum pressure provide no solution. China will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests."

@KobeissiLetter Investors are choosing safety over yield. Treasury bill ETFs have pulled in $51B vs. just $7B for long-term bond ETFs—even with long bonds yielding more. When rates can rise, duration risk matters. 📈🇺🇸

@KobeissiLetter The inflation ETF demand jumps out here. What kind of buyer has been behind those inflows?

@KobeissiLetter 🔼 You’re underusing your biggest asset.

@KobeissiLetter running from duration risk because math finally bit back and left everyone opting for safety over yield

#BREAKING: China directly rejects the idea that China would change its behaviors and interactions with Iran to comply with Trump's demands in Bessent's new "Operation Economic Outcast" campaign, saying "China's cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law, thus should not be disrupted. China is closely following the developments, and will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests," per China’s MFA spokesperson Lin Jian. China declares it "has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law. Economic warfare and maximum pressure provide no solution. China will do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests."

@KobeissiLetter This is less a rejection of bonds than a refusal to take duration risk without better compensation. The key trigger is the long end: if yields keep rising while bills attract cash, 4.7% still is not the clearing yield.

@KobeissiLetter In other words..unsurprisingly, no one wants to lock up their principal for thirty or even ten years to get a good percentage yield in their favourite fiat currency because they're worried that it still won't be good value..!

@KobeissiLetter Who in their right mind would buy long dated govt bonds.

@KobeissiLetter Thanks for another valuable post. Your insights are always clear and easy to follow. You and @RexWiggins12 are my daily finance reads.

t-bills at 3.7% beating the 30y at 4.7% is such a "thanks, but i'll pass" trade. nobody wants to eat that extra 70bp just to take on a mountain of duration risk, especially with the 30y sitting around 2007 levels. apparently 30 years of commitment isn't worth the extra yield anymore lol

@KobeissiLetter The market is basically saying: “I’ll take 3.7% and sleep at night over 4.7% with duration risk.” When yields are this volatile, capital preservation is becoming the priority.

@KobeissiLetter Money will follow this pattern when markets don't feel confident. To regian confidence, the market needs reliable signals. When they receive something different, confidence decreases further. That's the crux.

@KobeissiLetter $51 billion went into T-bill ETFs since February. long bonds got $7 billion. the 30-year is 5.18 after a 70 basis point jump and nobody is getting paid enough to sit in it.

@KobeissiLetter nobody wants 20yr duration risk when you can clip 5% on the front end with zero volatility. the real test comes when roll risk forces everyone back out on the curve

@KobeissiLetter It's safe to choose lower yields in exchange for lower risk, but its smart to choose risk/reward ratios while investing.

@KobeissiLetter Hard to blame investors for preferring short-term paper when they can get paid without taking much duration risk.

@KobeissiLetter Investors are buying convexity

@KobeissiLetter So, are they saying “money markets” when they say t-bill ETFs? As in, ultra short etf

@KobeissiLetter The safe half of most retirement plans is long government debt. That definition was set decades ago. Professional money is now backing out of the long end while glide paths keep moving ordinary savers into it as they age. Worth asking who that default still protects.

+$7 billion is an inflow, not a move away. Every category on the chart is positive — long-term bonds got less, not less than zero. Strategas titles it "flows remain on short-end," which describes distribution rather than rotation out of duration. Worth noting what the window covers too: it starts 2/27/26, the day before the strikes on Iran. The entire sample is the risk-off period since the war began.

@KobeissiLetter t-bills: when you want the thrill of saving

@KobeissiLetter capital preservation is winning the allocation battle

@KobeissiLetter $51B into 3.7% bills vs $7B into 4.7% long bonds. The market isn't greedy; it's scared. When 30Y yields are at 2007 highs and climbing, that extra 100bps is a trap, not a premium. Smart rotation.

@KobeissiLetter Only 100 bps more yield for enormous duration, inflation and fiscal risk. The rush into bills looks rational.

@KobeissiLetter Count Elevate in that group!

@KobeissiLetter By rotating into T-bills, investors have shortened aggregate duration, which may require long-end yields to rise further to clear remaining supply.

@KobeissiLetter Yield chasing loses appeal when duration risk overwhelms the extra income

The duration signal is showing up in our cross-asset risk model as well. Treasury duration remains one of the larger headwinds, while liquidity/rates and credit are still weak. What’s interesting is that crypto risk appetite is improving at the same time. So the broader regime is still balanced, but the internals are diverging.

The mistake is thinking investors accept lower yields because they fear risk. They accept them because they understand duration math. A 4.7% yield means little if rising rates erase years of coupons through capital losses. They’re not running to safety. They’re refusing to risk the house for a slightly bigger coupon.

Investors aren't running from Treasuries yet. They're running from time. +$51B into Treasury Bill ETFs. Just +$7B into long-term bond ETFs. They're accepting lower yields just to avoid duration risk. The interesting question is: Where do they run when cash itself becomes the risk?

@KobeissiLetter Higher long-term yields raise the hurdle for capital-intensive AI expansion. For ORCL, the market will demand faster OCI growth and clearer cash returns from every dollar of capex.

@KobeissiLetter Sell bonds, wear diamonds

Rational duration positioning given the 30Y at 2007 levels — investors are pricing in continued upward pressure on long yields rather than betting on a rally. Worth noting: this is the opposite of what you’d see if the market expected imminent Fed cuts to flow through the curve. The $51B into T-Bills is basically a bet that “safe carry now” beats “duration risk for 100bps of extra yield.”

@KobeissiLetter This is what happens when the curve does not pay you to extend. Why take 30Y duration risk for 1% extra yield?

@KobeissiLetter Heavy flows into short-term bills over long bonds reveal investors still prioritising safety over yield.

@KobeissiLetter Investors would rather protect their money than chase a little extra yield. With rate risk this high, safety matters more.

@KobeissiLetter Investors are paying a premium for optionality. A lower yield is easier to accept than watching duration turn a bond allocation into a capital-loss headline. #Bonds #Treasuries

@KobeissiLetter Right now, many investors would rather leave money on the table than leave it exposed to a rate shock.

@KobeissiLetter Honestly people are paying up for safety. +$51B into T-bill ETFs since Feb 27 and only +$7B into long bonds, even though longs yield more. 30Y is +70bps back to 2007 levels. Duration is the thing they dont want. How do we actually fund long projects if everyone sits in bills?

This is a lot of capital sitting in the waiting room. As long as bills pay ~3.7%, investors can earn a decent return without taking duration risk. The interesting part comes when short rates fall enough that holding all of that capital on the front end becomes considerably less attractive. Where does it move next?