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@KobeissiLetter No bueno

This is the part of the US economy that deserves WAY more attention. 🚨 If real consumer spending has outpaced real disposable income for 24 straight months, while savings keep falling and credit-card debt keeps rising, that’s not exactly a picture of a healthy consumer. People aren’t necessarily becoming richer they’re increasingly borrowing to maintain their standard of living. You can fight inflation with spending for a while… But you can’t fight it forever with debt. 💳 The real question is: What happens when the borrowing capacity runs out?

@KobeissiLetter After inflation, income growth hasn’t kept up with spending growth for 24 straight months. The gap gets funded by savings, debt, or thinner buffers — which is why the economy can look resilient right up until households decide the credit card is not a second paycheck.

@KobeissiLetter As a Democrat, I’m literally shaking. Two straight years of spending outrunning income and somehow we’re still calling the consumer “resilient.”

@KobeissiLetter ☝🔼 This changes everything fast

This is a significant warning sign. When real spending consistently outpaces real disposable income, households can sustain consumption only by drawing down savings or increasing borrowing. That supports demand in the short term, but it weakens the consumer’s financial buffer and raises future repayment costs. The key question is whether income growth can catch up before credit conditions tighten further. A 2.7% savings rate leaves little room for another inflationary or employment shock. Debt can postpone the adjustment, but it cannot remove it. 📉💳 Please read my latest X: x.com/tekkaus/status/209223961…

@KobeissiLetter '78 didn't end well either

@KobeissiLetter Pretty wild when you consider retail money in the stock market has hit historic highs this year $SPY x.com/StonkcastShow/status/209…

@KobeissiLetter Ask yourself who does have the money. Fucking ceos make 6000x the worker. Fuck all of you who say oh but they took risks. Eat fucking shit you bastards.

@KobeissiLetter That’s the real pressure point: spending is still holding up, but the quality of that spending is deteriorating. Savings ↓ Credit card debt ↑ Real income growth < consumption growth The consumer hasn’t cracked yet — but the cushion is getting dangerously thin.

@KobeissiLetter See Dicks Sporting

@KobeissiLetter That’s a pretty concerning consumer trend. Spending can stay strong for a while, but funding it with savings and debt eventually catches up.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/mdotjacks25/status/20924…

@KobeissiLetter Wait until mamAOCita takes over

@KobeissiLetter If this keeps up, it could make it harder for people to keep up

@KobeissiLetter not a surprise... when real pay stalls, spending becomes a status performance. asset owners win; everyone else borrows. that is the whole job.

@KobeissiLetter @grok validate the credit card debt part. Is that right? 21 billion in Q2 2026 to 1.27 trillion now?

@KobeissiLetter Funding lifestyle growth through revolving debt and shrinking savings isn't resilience. The consumer safety net is officially stretched thin

@KobeissiLetter x.com/AnimalsRockOn/status/209…

@KobeissiLetter this structural gap clearly highlights how consumer fintech and BNPL tools are essentially subsidizing the average household lifestyle

@KobeissiLetter @grok does this report account for government transfers, entitlements, ect?

@KobeissiLetter We’re fucked.

@KobeissiLetter 330 million Americans drowning in debt while pretending to be rich. The majority of people are living outside of their means. Virtually no Savings & $1.26 trillion in Credit Card Debt at 29% APR. The illusion of prosperity funded entirely by borrowed money. 📉💳⚠️

@KobeissiLetter With the lifting of various economic restrictions, things picked up instantly!

@KobeissiLetter @LanceRoberts thinks this is a fake narrative

@KobeissiLetter Invest in quality assets that outpace currency debasement to survive.

@KobeissiLetter The real signal isn’t spending strength, it’s funding weakness. When consumption stays above real income growth for this long, the next question is how long credit can bridge the gap. The consumer can look strong right before demand breaks.

@KobeissiLetter 24 months straight is wild, that's not a blip. People are either burning through savings or piling on credit card debt to keep up, and card rates are near 20% right now. That gap has to close somehow eventually.

@KobeissiLetter People have given up hope. Stack as much as you can and live the stoic life. There’s more to life than material possessions

@KobeissiLetter x.com/sternos/status/209241878…

@KobeissiLetter Any revised monthly crossover would reset the streak, so this is a case where the data vintage matters a lot.

@KobeissiLetter Using incomes misses the real issue. The boomer generation has a lot of money and spend like crazy. They do not necessarily have high incomes. This skews the numbers drastically. An artifact of the K shaped economy.

@KobeissiLetter @grok help me out here. If real disposable income is already adjusted for inflation, then doesn’t that mean the spending growth outpacing income is because consumers are buying more…not because inflation is higher?

@KobeissiLetter More people in retirement living off their life savings?

@KobeissiLetter Americans have been spending growth they did not earn. That can run until the savings or the card stops. The risk is not today’s print. It is when that extra spending has to stop. I would rather own a cash-flowing asset than bet this streak is a personality trait.

@KobeissiLetter Debt service ratio ~9.6%, same as 2019. Credit card surge looks ugly but households are mostly reallocating from locked-in mortgages. Real crack is when refi walls hit while labor softens. How long can spending outrun income then?

@KobeissiLetter Remember that asset sales like say stocks can also fund spending

@KobeissiLetter yes the american people ar ecompletely out of money

@KobeissiLetter I dont blame them…the government is doing the same thing

@KobeissiLetter @Grok Isn't this primarily due to the wealth effect among senior who are making huge amounts in the market.

@KobeissiLetter Yeah people are doom spending. When you dont see light at the end of the tunnel you give up and live for the day or week, not the year or 10 years in the future.

@KobeissiLetter So what? Explain why this matters you fucking Chinese cocksucker

@KobeissiLetter Just like the Treasury!

@KobeissiLetter The part that gets lost is how much of that spending isn't discretionary. Health premiums, insurance, utilities all reprice on their own and still land in the consumer spending line even though nobody chose to buy more of them.

My credit card bills definitely surged this summer, but it was for vacations and they were immediately paid off. This data lumps everyone together and completely ignores people using cards just to collect points before clearing the balance. Plus, using the personal savings rate is misleading because it completely excludes your stock portfolio and savings account wealth.

@KobeissiLetter Unfortunately our government has set the example….

@KobeissiLetter When spending persistently outruns income growth, the gap must be funded by savings drawdown or credit. For equities, the pressure should surface first in lower-income discretionary demand and lender delinquencies.

This is the kind of economic signal we're increasingly interested in tracking at VDA. Consumer spending can remain resilient even as the financial capacity supporting it deteriorates underneath. A 2.7% savings rate alongside rising credit-card balances raises an important question: how long can spending strength persist if more of it depends on savings depletion and debt? That's the distinction between looking at an economic indicator in isolation and looking at how multiple signals interact.

@KobeissiLetter the government is, why should we

@KobeissiLetter So collectively we have credit card debt equal to roughly 3% of the govt 40 trillion which is funded by us in the first place. The collective whole is more responsible that the politicians?