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@KobeissiLetter Good. Home prices should crash at least 50%

@KobeissiLetter Very clear and well explained. Appreciate the time you put into sharing these ideas. I’ve been enjoying @GwenPoth’s posts too.

Core numbers check out well, 607,000 units, down 10.5% month over month and 6.3% year over year, both confirmed by Census Bureau data. The median new home price also fell to $393,800, a five year low. I could not independently verify the specific regional breakdown you cited, the Midwest at negative 42.7% to 43,000 units and the South at negative 13.0% to 383,000, those figures aren’t showing up in what I found, so worth double checking those two specific numbers before posting even though the national headline is solid.

@KobeissiLetter Those numbers show a clear slowdown in housing demand. Mortgage rates and affordability remain key factors to watch.

@KobeissiLetter 607k new home sales. That's the demand side freezing. Supply hasn't thawed yet — existing inventory still artificially tight. When both sides meet it's a price reset, not a gradual soft landing.

@KobeissiLetter I guess 90 IQers can’t afford homes

@KobeissiLetter 👆 This is the real difference

@KobeissiLetter Housing is becoming a serious drag on the economy.. high rates are finally showing up in the demand data.

@KobeissiLetter careful with the midwest number. regional new home sales come with error bars wide enough to swallow a 40% move. the national trend is the real signal here

@KobeissiLetter But is this a housing crash or simply what happens when mortgage rates make buying unaffordable? 🏠📉 The bigger risk may be what happens next if high rates start hitting consumer spending, construction and employment simultaneously.

@KobeissiLetter Census margin of error on those monthly new-home numbers is so wide the drop may not be significant.

@KobeissiLetter "New home sales" might need to be renamed "new home browsing."

@KobeissiLetter The drop is real, but ‘collapsed’ overstates a noisy preliminary series. Census puts July at 607,000 SAAR, down 10.5%, with a ±14.0% confidence interval that includes zero. The stronger signal is 9.6 months of supply. Watch revisions, not one print.

@KobeissiLetter Is there a builder metric you trust most for judging whether July’s Midwest plunge has legs?

The 10.5% MoM drop with the South (the nation's biggest region) down 13% is a structural warning for homebuilders and materials stocks. The Midwest's 42.7% plunge to levels not seen since 2012 suggests the affordability crisis is hitting hardest outside the coastal hubs. While mortgage rates at 6.81% are off the 7%+ highs, the real issue is that prices haven't adjusted enough to offset the rate shock, keeping buyers sidelined.

@KobeissiLetter Prices are going down a lot more over the next decade or two as the boomers die off. They own more housing than any group and much of their wealth is inflated house prices. Not enough young people with money to buy them and the estates will have to sell them at much lower prices

@KobeissiLetter Buy a house and have Ai take your job….sounds like a wonderful plan!

@KobeissiLetter Demand didn’t collapse. The math did. The buyers didn't vanish overnight. The payments did.

@KobeissiLetter Framing this as 'collapse' is premature. Rates already retreated to 6.67-6.72% from the 6.81% peak, and inventory has been the real bottleneck. -10.5% MoM after a 4-month decline streak is affordability shock, not structural weakness.

@KobeissiLetter Census attaches a confidence interval to both figures: -10.5% MoM (±14.0%) and -6.3% YoY (±19.6%). Both ranges contain zero, and the release's own note says that means it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. It also says it takes 4 months to establish a trend.

Spending on home furnishings reflects this ongoing weakness. Our credit and debit card data shows continued softness in the category, with trends deteriorating into the summer. Companies like Wayfair and Homegoods have held up better since they may be less dependent on full-home furnishing.

@KobeissiLetter Debt riddled asset. New construction built poorly… existing homes need work. Prices will keep falling.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/MaximaList_H/status/2092…

High mortgage rates hit new homes twice: they shrink the buyer’s monthly-payment budget, then force builders to subsidize rates, cut prices, or accept slower sales. A -10.5% July drop to 607k says affordability is biting even in the part of housing where sellers can actually offer incentives. Watch builder margins and cancellations next.

@KobeissiLetter yeah affordability is the real killer, rates just keep crushing demand

June was revised up from 628k to 678k. The -10.5% is measured against a base that changed after the fact — against June as first published, July is -3.3%. And the -1.4% consensus was formed against the old base, so it isn’t the same comparison: 607k actual against ~620k expected. Census prints ±14.0pp next to that number and flags it as not statistically significant. The error bar is wider than the move.

@KobeissiLetter Interests need to go down

@KobeissiLetter This is the end x.com/RescuedChart/status/2092…

Demand did not collapse in July. It has been on strike for a year. What July shows is who is paying for it. Months’ supply of new homes was 9.2 a year ago and is 9.6 now, against a normal range of 4 to 6. Unsold completed homes sit at 117,000, a level last seen in 2009. The adjustment is in the price, not the volume. The median new home sold for $393,800 in July. The median existing home sold for $431,400. New houses now go for almost a 9% discount to used ones, after three decades of double-digit premiums. That is the tell. The owner with a 3% mortgage will not sell, so existing prices hold. The builder carrying 9.6 months of inventory and land financed at 2026 rates cannot wait. He is the marginal seller, and the whole affordability adjustment is running through his gross margin. Footnote on the headline: the 10.5% drop is measured against a June revised up by 50,000 units. Against the June we were shown a month ago, July is down about 3%, inside the report’s own ±14% error band. Housing is not crashing. It is being repriced quietly, one incentive at a time. When distress surfaces, it will surface in construction loans and FHA books, where serious delinquencies are up more than 225 bp in a year, not in the 3% mortgage next door. Personal views, not investment advice.

@KobeissiLetter I mean, how are Gen Z even supposed to buy a house when prices and rates are completely out of touch with reality? No wonder demand is collapsing.

@KobeissiLetter 607,000 new home sales at 6.81% mortgage rates means builders must cut prices to clear inventory before demand can stabilize.

The Midwest number is a sample size problem before it's a demand signal — 43,000 annualised in a region that small comes with an error band wide enough to swallow most of that -42.7%. The South at 60% of the national total is where the real read is, and -13% there is bad enough without the regional headline doing the work.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/LLuciano_BTC/status/2092…

@Super_Powers_AI Hey Super, build a high-precision, interactive US Housing Sales & Demand Shock Simulator and macro research workbench based on the report showing US new home sales fell -10.5% MoM in July to 607,000 units (far worse than the -1.4% expected decline, marking the lowest level in 6 months and since November 2022 excluding January 2026). app.getsupers.com/sites/housin… The tool must immediately provide an actionable first-viewport interactive time-series and demand-elasticity model using D3.js (pinned v7 via CDN) where users can explore the consensus-versus-actual shortfall (-61.7k annualized units gap), scrub mortgage rate scenarios from 5.5% to 8.5%, adjust builder concession and buydown levels, and inspect immediate recalculations of monthly principal/interest payments, payment-to-income qualification thresholds, months of supply backlog, and builder cancellation risk bands. The application must load into a complete, working representative default state with the verified July baseline: 607k units actual sales, 678.2k prior month, -10.5% realized MoM change vs -1.4% expected, $412,000 median new home price, and 6.85% prevailing mortgage rate, displaying the immediate diagnostic of 9.1 months supply and elevated cancellation pressure. When a visitor adjusts mortgage rates, home prices, or builder price cut percentages via direct sliders or quick preset buttons ('July Actual Shock', 'Rate Buydown Cushion', 'Severe 8.0% Rate Spike', 'Fed Easing Recovery'), the interactive D3 visual trajectory dynamically renders the divergence between baseline demand and stressed demand, updating summary telemetry cards and a breakdown data table without layout shifts or console errors.

@KobeissiLetter The regional split is revealing. A housing slowdown concentrated in the South and Midwest points to a rate shock hitting mainstream buyers, not just overheated coastal markets. The key question is how long sellers resist repricing.

@KobeissiLetter The crash is almost here.

@KobeissiLetter Mortgage rates near 7% are crushing affordability

@KobeissiLetter 30y at 6.81% hurts but we already chewed through 8% in 2023. this is a transaction collapse, not a price collapse. 3% mortgage lock-in has frozen supply so sellers aren't forced to budge. what's the catalyst that breaks prices if nobody has to move?

@KobeissiLetter US housing demand is getting crushed by high borrowing costs new home sales plunged 10.5% in July to 607K, the lowest since January. 📉

@KobeissiLetter Volume usually breaks before sellers finally give on price. Some sellers are delusional and pricing their homes like it's still sub-3 % rates.

@KobeissiLetter A 10.5% monthly drop is hard to dismiss as noise. Mortgage rates are doing exactly what restrictive policy is supposed to do — the question is how long the Fed can tolerate the slowdown.

@KobeissiLetter New home sales down 10.5% MoM, lowest in 6 months. 30Y mortgage at 6.81%. Midwest sales at the lowest level since 2012. PCE at 3.7% this morning means rates are not coming down. The housing market has no relief coming. This is what stagflation does to real assets.

@KobeissiLetter Zoom out

@KobeissiLetter That Midwest number really jumps out. Down 42.7% in a month shows how much higher borrowing costs are biting.

@KobeissiLetter Housing affordability is finally showing up in the data

@KobeissiLetter Housing is becoming harder to afford for ordinary Americans. High mortgage rates and rising costs are pushing many buyers out of the market. We need policies that make homeownership possible again. 🇺🇸🏠

@KobeissiLetter Burn burn burn

@KobeissiLetter High mortgage rates are pushing buyers out, but sellers aren't lowering prices enough. Something has to break to restore housing affordability

@KobeissiLetter Kobeissi Interns are so dramatic!

@KobeissiLetter Sales fell because the monthly payment is still too high. If the mortgage does not fit this month’s paycheck, do not buy. Keep renting and send the leftover into savings until the number works.