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@KobeissiLetter Gas prices and job fears got everyone spooked.

@KobeissiLetter The worrying part is expectations, not the headline number

89.4 isn’t panic, but the expectations drop to 68.2 is the part that bites. Confidence hits the economy through delay: fewer big purchases, more precautionary saving, and a labor market that suddenly has to do more of the heavy lifting. For households, watch jobs first — mood surveys get serious when they start showing up in paychecks.

All figures confirmed exactly, 89.4 headline, down 0.8 points, Expectations Index at 68.2, down 5.8, and Present Situation up 6.8 to 121.2. One number worth adding, an Expectations Index reading below 80 has historically preceded a recession within a year, and this one is now well under that line at 68.2. Also, households surveyed expect inflation to run at 5.8% over the next year, up from 5.6% the month before, and the share saying a recession is “very likely” ticked up too.

@KobeissiLetter I don't think so, we need a chart to explain that Americans are fucking losing confidence. It's pretty obvious.

Folks are clearly more nervous about what’s coming next with jobs and paychecks while business conditions ahead look less promising. Gas prices and everyday costs keep piling on and hiring has slowed which is weighing people down. At least the view of right now bounced back a little after a few rough months so it’s not all gloom.

@KobeissiLetter Probably because the American dream is dead because both parties sold us out to Wall Street and Israel.

@KobeissiLetter 👆 This is the edge moment

@KobeissiLetter Nothing has broken. Nothing feels broken. And somehow, everything feels wrong.

consumers feel tomorrow's economy before economists do. expectations deteriorate while today's conditions still improve. that divergence rarely makes policymakers feel comfortable. confidence shapes spending, hiring, and eventually earnings. higher gas prices tax households immediately, quietly. the present looks fine; the future doesn't. recessions begin in expectations before appearing everywhere.

@KobeissiLetter It also showed that consumers feel better about today than they did during the last survey, but feel significantly worse about the future. That divergence is the interesting part. Next week is a big one for employment data which will tell more of the story.

@KobeissiLetter While overall consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, we’re seeing areas of softness, particularly for companies that depend more on lower income shoppers. Foot Locker and Finish Line are two recent examples, and it’s a category where purchases are easier to defer.

@KobeissiLetter Present situation: 121. Expectations: 68. Translation: this month I’m fine. Next month I’m not so sure.

@KobeissiLetter day 7. still flat. a drop in expectations is the kind of number I don't need a position for..

@KobeissiLetter present situation up 6.8 while expectations fall off a cliff, people feel fine right now but see something coming

@KobeissiLetter Confidence is weakening where it matters most

@KobeissiLetter Orangie can say whatever he wants. Liars to figure but figures don’t lie.

@KobeissiLetter What jumps out to me is people aren’t saying things are terrible right now. They’re worried they’re about to get worse. Once people start getting nervous about jobs and income, spending usually gets a lot more cautious.

@KobeissiLetter Lower expectations are assumed to foreshadow spending cuts, yet continued gains in the present situation index would challenge that transmission.

@KobeissiLetter the split matters more than the headline. present situation +6.8 to 121.2 says households aren't broke yet; the drop is forward fear. that makes 25bp the right sept cut, not 50. so why are swaps still pricing ~40% odds of a half-point?

@KobeissiLetter What has this kind of split between present conditions and expectations historically meant for payrolls?

@KobeissiLetter Confidence is weakening where it matters most

@KobeissiLetter sentiment crackin before the spending data does

@KobeissiLetter People feel okay right now, but they're nervous about what's coming next. Usually the first sign of a slowdown

@KobeissiLetter Consumer confidence at multi-month lows. People feel poorer in the future while still spending like the present is fine.

@KobeissiLetter the expectations index below 80 has historically been a recession signal, and 68.2 is well below that line.

@KobeissiLetter Gee how could we predict this?🤔 x.com/airgabe1/status/20926796…

@KobeissiLetter It’s difficult to separate real insight from market noise. You and @TishaWillimas make that distinction much easier.

@KobeissiLetter Expectations at 68.2 is the one to watch — sub-80 has historically flagged recession within a year. The record-high tape is the outlier here, not the survey.

@KobeissiLetter Confidence is cracking where it matters most

@KobeissiLetter Present conditions improving while expectations deteriorate sharply is an interesting setup. Which tends to win eventually: current resilience pulling expectations back up, or weak expectations turning into weaker spending and hiring?

@KobeissiLetter The Expectations Index collapse is the real story. People see trouble ahead and they're battening down.

The most concerning signal isn’t the modest headline decline—it’s the sharp deterioration in expectations. U.S. consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August, while the Expectations Index plunged 5.8 points to 68.2, reflecting growing concerns over jobs, incomes, costs and future business conditions. Consumers may feel somewhat better about today, but they’re increasingly worried about tomorrow. That gap is worth watching closely for consumer spending and broader economic momentum.

@KobeissiLetter Not so with customer Trump.🙄

@KobeissiLetter Expectations Index: 68.2 Present Situation Index: 121.2 68.2 has stopped updating LinkedIn because apparently 121.2 already took all the good jobs.

The sharp divide between present conditions and future expectations is the key signal here. Households may feel reasonably stable today, but rising fuel and living costs, alongside weaker hiring prospects, are eroding confidence in tomorrow. That caution can eventually weigh on spending, growth and corporate earnings. Confidence is often the economy’s early warning system 📉 Please read my latest X: x.com/tekkaus/status/209268123…

@KobeissiLetter Are you ignoring what the consumer did? Confidence already printed the low. Expectations cracked first.

@KobeissiLetter when people start worrying about their jobs and income, you can feel it in the economy pretty quickly cost-of-living pressure definitely isn’t helping either

@KobeissiLetter Present situation up almost 7 points while expectations drop nearly 6 is the split that matters here. People feel fine about right now and scared about six months out, which usually hits deferrable spending first rather than everything at once.

@KobeissiLetter The recession signal isn’t 89.4, it’s expectations at 68.2. The Conference Board treats anything below 80 as a recession warning, while 27 percent still say jobs are plentiful.

@KobeissiLetter Another post worth saving. You always give a thoughtful perspective on what the market is doing. You and @JimRambo8 are two finance accounts that stand out from the crowd.

@KobeissiLetter Americans feel better about the present than the future. Consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August, its lowest since January, as expectations sank to 68.2 amid job, income and cost-of-living worries. Economic anxiety is spreading. x.com/ReiteConMig0/status/2092…

@KobeissiLetter The legacy media does everything in their power to make American's feel like everything is horrible and it's working

@KobeissiLetter US consumer confidence is slipping again. August fell to 89.4, the lowest since January, while expectations dropped sharply to 68.2. That weakening outlook matters for the economy and markets.

@KobeissiLetter Banana republic rules Deal with it

The divergence is the story: expectations fell sharply, while views of current conditions actually improved. Consumers aren’t saying the economy is bad today. They’re increasingly worried about what comes next. That gap is worth watching.

@KobeissiLetter the expectations number dropping that much is probably the more interesting part people can tolerate a weak present if they think the future improves. that’s harder to ignore

Solid recap of the latest Conference Board print. Aug consumer confidence 89.4 (down 0.8), lowest since Jan. Expectations Index slid to 68.2 while present conditions improved to 121.2. Households are more worried about future jobs, income, and costs (gas, living expenses, hiring) even as current assessments ticked up. Official release: conference-board.org/topics/co… Reuters recap: reuters.com/business/us-consum…

@KobeissiLetter 🇸🇦💚🇵🇰

@KobeissiLetter And they are right to be worried. The card castle that was built around pressuring the world to use the dollar with blackmailing or bombing has crumbled. American economy does not exist. Billionaires do. That's all.