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@KobeissiLetter Send oil to zero

@KobeissiLetter wow, 16 days! Why is this "breaking"?

Confirmed and current this ties directly to the Hormuz talks we covered earlier. Real driver: Iran-Oman discussed a “temporary joint maritime corridor” through the strait, plus a second straight weekly build in US crude inventories (+4.4M barrels). Also worth noting OPEC+ just approved another output hike for

@KobeissiLetter Still paid 100$ to fill my tank this morning

@KobeissiLetter And they are still on active economical warfare with another country

@KobeissiLetter Taps sign $WTI x.com/SandmanMarkets/status/20… x.com/SandmanMarkets/status/20…

@KobeissiLetter Feels like the market is finally letting some of that tension ease with the latest Middle East chatter
Drivers might catch a break at the pump soon if this keeps up but who knows with all the geopolitics bouncing around

@KobeissiLetter 🔼 Few optimize. Few win.

@KobeissiLetter Great news man

On August 20, we posted the below analysis for our premium members. As oil hit $87.50, we continued to build shorts and called for a move below $80.00. Today, these shorts are deep green and the volatility continues. Subscribe to access our analysis: thekobeissiletter.com/subscrib… x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/20…

@KobeissiLetter seven red candles out of the last eight, nobody's buying this dip yet

@KobeissiLetter Lunch money for Barron.

@KobeissiLetter Gas prices falling right in time to ease consumer pain 💪

@KobeissiLetter Good news, now when will gas prices drop?

@KobeissiLetter Yeah that's until Israel drops missiles in Tehran.

@KobeissiLetter but but but everyone said they were gonna go to $200/barrel

@KobeissiLetter The geopolitical panic lasted right up until the US inventory data hit the tape. Geopolitical risk premium is completely unwinding, and if $79 support doesn't hold, the bears are taking over for the week. 📉🛢️

@KobeissiLetter Appreciate this breakdown. Your insights have been genuinely useful, and @nickdannunzio often helps me look at things differently.

@KobeissiLetter 👍

@KobeissiLetter This is so odd

@KobeissiLetter This should be bullish for the stock market & Bitcoin $VOO bitcoin:native

@Super_Powers_AI Hey Super, build a precision financial energy workbench and macroeconomic transmission simulator titled 'US Crude Oil $80 Threshold & Macro Transmission Workbench' based on the breaking market alert from @KobeissiLetter that US oil prices dropped below $80/barrel for the first time since August 10th. app.getsupers.com/sites/oil-th… The application must load immediately into an active, runnable state with an interactive WTI price trajectory visualizer powered by Chart.js (v4.4.1), displaying the recent price channel, the critical $80.00/bbl support breach, and interactive stress sliders for crude spot price ($65 - $110/bbl), OPEC+ spare capacity supply shifts (-2.0 to +3.0 mbpd), and refinery utilization rate (80% - 98%). The first-viewport action must let users scrub the spot price or toggle predefined market scenarios (such as 'Recessionary Demand Drag', 'OPEC+ Supply Cut Defense', 'SPR Buyback Target ($72-$79)', or 'Refinery Outage Shock') with instant recalculations of headline CPI pass-through deltas, retail pump price projections, blended 3:2:1 crack spreads, and sector EBIT impact gauges across US Airlines, E&P Explorers, and Industrial Refiners. Include a sector sensitivity matrix, an interactive 3:2:1 crack spread model detailing gasoline and diesel refining margins against spot crude input costs, and an SPR replenishment rule evaluator. Provide a robust export function that generates a comprehensive Macro Energy Brief containing all calculated elasticity parameters, sector shocks, and scenario summary tables. Ensure full responsive design, WCAG-compliant contrast, local persistence of custom scenario assumptions via localStorage, and a reset button restoring the default Kobeissi Letter $79.45/bbl break fixture.

@KobeissiLetter WTI below $80 is the market pricing a Hormuz reopening before physical flows fully confirm it. Reuters still had commodity transits at just 5 vessels Tuesday versus ~15 normally. If that gap closes, oil can fall further.

@KobeissiLetter this is the iran-oman talks showing up in price before the deal even exists yet 📉 oil moved on "still working on details," not a signed agreement markets front run resolution faster than they front run escalation

@KobeissiLetter tbh oil below 80 was inevitable with the demand worries

@KobeissiLetter 🚨 BREAKING: Iran has just struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz US-backed southern corridor, while transiting under US escort, causing damage to the engine room and fully disabling the vessel, per UKMTO. x.com/FlashWireNews/status/209…

@KobeissiLetter So why is gas 4$, distribution fucking us over

@KobeissiLetter Good signs 🪧

@KobeissiLetter x.com/AJFinancial2021/status/2…

@KobeissiLetter Why do I feel it's a win for us? 😂😭

@KobeissiLetter 🇸🇦💚🇵🇰

@KobeissiLetter Good x.com/BillGatesOHell/status/20…

@KobeissiLetter No agreement with Oman and price go back above 90$ very quickly.

@KobeissiLetter First time below $80 since August 10th. That’s a sharp reversal from the recent supply scare. When oil rolls over, the "hot inflation" narrative loses its biggest weapon.

@KobeissiLetter Credit gives away the game here. HYG printed a fresh high as crude broke $80, which means spreads are refusing to confirm any demand panic. This reads as a soft-dollar disinflation impulse unwinding crowded energy longs rather than a growth collapse.

@KobeissiLetter US oil under 80… great for the yanks, less so when the pound’s doing whatever it’s doing. Still, any chance it filters through to UK petrol prices or are we stuck paying for “volatility” forever?🤔

The $80 line isn’t magic; it’s where oil starts changing the inflation conversation. WTI is still up 39.8% YTD, so this isn’t “cheap oil.” But sustained weakness here would ease pressure on gas and inflation expectations, with refinery margins deciding how much actually reaches the pump.

@KobeissiLetter That’s a pretty serious move considering how tense the Iran headlines still are.

@KobeissiLetter Oil glut x.com/celabantur/status/209260…

@KobeissiLetter The pullback in oil prices is positive for both inflation and consumers, but investors in energy stocks should be wary of volatility

@KobeissiLetter @grok is this good or bad?

@KobeissiLetter Four of our top 20 are Energy and all four are refiners: $VLO #4, $EXE #5, $MPC #7, $PSX #8 of 466. Cheaper crude is an input cost for them, not a revenue hit. Same headline, opposite sign, depending which end of the barrel you sit on.

@KobeissiLetter Why is RBOB still rising?

@KobeissiLetter Canadian oil price is still at 1.73 per litre. Canadians squeeze from tax, oil and food price

@KobeissiLetter Okay time to buy some plane tickets again

@KobeissiLetter Lower oil prices are welcome news for American families and businesses. Let’s keep pushing for American energy dominance, lower costs, and a stronger economy

@KobeissiLetter Makes total sense yay free market

@KobeissiLetter Best gift for Bessent

For scale on how energy sits in disclosed congressional positioning: the largest disclosed sale of the past 90 days is Alan Armstrong on WMB, a partial sale in the $5,000,001 to $25,000,000 band, transaction Jun 24, filed Jul 21. A 27 day gap between the trade and the public record.

Treating a routine two-week commodity price wiggle back down to eighty bucks a barrel like a biblical market crash, complete with breathless financial-terminal sirens and macro-pundits instantly scrambling to rewrite their entire global inflation thesis because crude oil dipped by the price of a fancy steak dinner.