Post

@KobeissiLetter Let’s gooo

@KobeissiLetter That’s a sharp move. Oil markets are clearly reacting to something.

Crude is pricing short-term headline flows, while the physical market is absorbing higher freight and insurance risk. The market keeps treating the regional stress as a simple supply shock, ignoring the structural cost increases in routing, STS transfers, and hull war-risk premiums.

@KobeissiLetter Crude ignoring geopolitics and just following the broader risk-off mood today.

@KobeissiLetter Oil tumbling hard despite no Iran talks — markets pricing in something else entirely.

@KobeissiLetter I wonder why the price is dropping? This is an interesting development.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/alphalmanac/status/20923…

A -5% flush below $81 says the market is stripping out geopolitical premium because barrels are still moving. Iran headlines can add risk fast, but that premium decays unless supply actually gets interrupted. Watch tanker flows and war-risk insurance around Hormuz; that’s where the headline becomes a real oil shock.

@KobeissiLetter falling for this once again while U.S. oil reserves are at 40 days left....hell of a cope

@KobeissiLetter So they drop? Usually they go up.

@KobeissiLetter MCCRACKER ON SWEDICE WATCH

@KobeissiLetter ☝️ BUILD your stack.

@KobeissiLetter they said it to load up more puts shorting oil then cease fire news will come out after

@KobeissiLetter Was it the “mine-free” announcement?

@KobeissiLetter Buy the dip

@KobeissiLetter Seems like someone is big in on shorts lets see what happens when the oil reserves are running out.

@KobeissiLetter Probably because of the Oman and Iran agreement

@KobeissiLetter Oil is moving fast today. Either a broader inflation tailwind or just gives consumers some relief at the pump.

@KobeissiLetter Bloomberg yet to report

@KobeissiLetter Tick tock, wait until all finished in Venezuela, Guyana, Nigeria... Lol?

@KobeissiLetter Oil doesn’t need a peace deal to sell off. Markets are pricing in less risk around Hormuz and future supply disruptions. 🛢️📉 That’s the signal traders are watching.

@KobeissiLetter ... x.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/209…

@KobeissiLetter That’s because there are no negotiations!

@KobeissiLetter Likely a dip 👀

@KobeissiLetter Rigged

@KobeissiLetter It seems the drop wash timed with the CIA director returning from Moscow. Oil prices are currently being driven as much by Russia/Ukraine as they are Iran/US.

@KobeissiLetter Interesting. When oil goes up you write “price of oil increases “ yet when it drops, all of a sudden “losses” hit your headline. Always playing with the consumer’s emotions

@KobeissiLetter Wtf is going on here?

@KobeissiLetter Looking at the chart, I can see that the first and second waves of a downward movement have already formed. Now we are in the Y-wave, and the price should make a zigzag decline; my optimistic target includes a drop to $70... $USO x.com/TheMacroWhale/status/209…

@KobeissiLetter Oil dropping 5% even with no Iran talks is pretty telling. If this holds while yields keep falling too, that’s a very friendly setup for equities.

@KobeissiLetter Well this makes total sense doesn’t it? 🥴

@KobeissiLetter Bessent is busy shorting is on reason. The other is this hope x.com/EmilyandMe2/status/20922…

@KobeissiLetter Everything going as planned President Trump is really a 5D chess master

@KobeissiLetter It's OK to not understand things sometimes. Is just the chart doing is thing. #oott x.com/SimpleSimo44324/status/2…

@KobeissiLetter Oil dropped hard in a single session. Moves like that tend to show up at the pump eventually. x.com/BrineNShine/status/20923…

@KobeissiLetter secret negotiations maybe

@KobeissiLetter Oil is basically saying it doesn’t believe this tension stays this bad forever. Down 5% with no Iran talks happening is a pretty loud move.

@KobeissiLetter Funny timing too since the US is flat out saying zero negotiations with Iran are happening right now. Markets must be looking past the usual tension premium or just dumping on bigger supply signals.

@KobeissiLetter A 5% oil drop in one day changes the inflation conversation fast. If crude keeps sliding, that takes some pressure off consumers and gives the Fed a little more breathing room.

@KobeissiLetter Strange

@KobeissiLetter Oh I’m sorry ?! I thought 40 trillion debt , deficit , bond market breaking bs etc etc … fair or not it’s only inflation/growth expectations… $TLT

@KobeissiLetter Weird because gas went from 3.85 this morning to 4.09 now in fl

@KobeissiLetter My bet is the C17 to Russia was a deal to turn over the Iranian leadership (where they were hiding) to the US and bring them back here for imprisonment.

@KobeissiLetter @cherryPayment Bro, what do you think?

@KobeissiLetter Tell the pumps.

@KobeissiLetter The market is pricing in an increase in oil supply. The question is, from where?👀

@KobeissiLetter Clearly market manipulation. Real price of oil will come when the SPR dries up.

@KobeissiLetter Now what does that tell you

@KobeissiLetter How about diesel prices ?

@KobeissiLetter Someone always knows