amit

CPI +3.4% VS 3.4% EXPECTED FED RATE HIKE PROBABILITIES NOW DOWN TO 38% IN SEPTEMBER yeah a hike is just not making sense in September at all not to mention if oil comes under control

$NBIS NEBIUS SMASHES Q2 2026 EARNINGS: - Revenue $582M, +454% YoY - EPS -$0.12, +68% YoY - ARR $3.0B at End of June, +58% QoQ - AI Cloud Adjusted EBITDA Margin 50% vs 24% in Q4 2025 - 2026 Contracted Power Guidance Raised to 5 GW - Contracted Power Guidance Has Increased 5x Since August 2025 - Capacity Footprint Expanding Across U.S. & Europe - FY2026 Guidance Reaffirmed AI infrastructure demand is just getting started.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. CoreWeave $CRWV reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.6B, slightly ahead of estimates of $2.56B, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B versus $1.43B expected and adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%. Revenue backlog reached roughly $104B, up 46% YoY, while active power more than tripled YoY to 1.5GW and contracted power increased to 4.2GW. CoreWeave raised FY26 guidance to $12.4B–$13.2B in revenue and $960M–$1.15B in adjusted operating income, while lifting its active power target to more than 1.85GW. The company now expects year-end annualized run-rate revenue of $18.5B–$19.5B, managed inference ARR above $250M exiting 2026, and long-term active power of 8GW+ by 2030. Management said customer demand is accelerating as enterprise adoption broadens and its platform deepens. 2. Gemini has become $GOOGL Google’s fastest-growing product ever, crossing 1B monthly users and becoming the company’s 14th product to reach the billion-user milestone. The scale-up underscores how quickly Google is pushing Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and its broader AI ecosystem. 3. BofA downgraded AppLovin $APP to Neutral with a $400 price target, saying risks to the company’s long-term 30% YoY revenue growth trajectory have increased. Analyst Omar Dessouky said post-Q2 growth appears to be driven more by engineer-directed improvements to Gaming models, while it is less clear whether the prior 3%–5% QoQ self-learning growth assumption still applies. BofA also noted that with AppLovin’s high relative market share, estimated at roughly 2x its next-largest competitor, long-term growth from self-learning alone may be harder to sustain than the market previously assumed. 4. President Trump is reportedly weighing a capital gains tax cut ahead of the midterms, including the idea of indexing capital gains to inflation before taxes are calculated. Under that approach, investors would only owe taxes on the inflation-adjusted “real” gain, not the full nominal gain. For example, if someone bought a business or stock position for $2M and sold it years later for $5M, the nominal gain would be $3M. But if cumulative inflation over that period was 25%, the inflation-adjusted cost basis would rise to $2.5M, leaving only $2.5M of taxable real gain instead of $3M. Trump has also floated capital gains exemptions for home sales worth $2M or less. There has not been a major U.S. capital gains tax cut since 2003. 5. Senator Bernie Sanders has reportedly called on major AI companies to pause development, sending letters to the CEOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta, according to NYT. The push adds to the growing political scrutiny around frontier AI development, safety, and whether the largest labs should slow deployment as model capabilities continue advancing. 6. Apple $AAPL is reportedly still planning a glass-centric iPhone redesign for the device’s 20th anniversary in 2027, contrary to a Jefferies report that said it had been canceled, according to Bloomberg. The new Pro models are expected to feature glass that curves into the sides, with a metal band running through the middle. 7. U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to a 4.06M annualized pace, slightly above estimates. Median existing home prices rose 2% YoY to $434,100, while inventory increased to 1.54M homes. The data points to a housing market that is still soft on transaction volume, but with prices remaining resilient as supply continues to build. 8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $SPCX with 861K contracts, $AAPL with 823K contracts, $MU with 664K contracts, $AMZN with 568K contracts, $PLTR with 559K contracts, $INTC with 555K contracts, $GOOGL with 546K contracts, and $HTZ with 518K contracts. 9. Supermicro $SMCI reported Q4’26 revenue of $11.1B, below estimates of $11.55B, but adjusted EPS came in at $1.70 versus $0.96 expected, up 315% YoY. Gross margin expanded to 17.5%, up 800 bps YoY, while net income reached $1.2B, adjusted EBITDA was $1.7B, and operating income came in at $1.5B. For Q1, Supermicro guided revenue to $14.5B–$15.5B, well above estimates of $11.68B, with adjusted EPS of $1.01–$1.10. For FY27, the company guided revenue to $65B–$72B, far ahead of the $52.5B estimate. Management said Supermicro generated more than $60B in new orders and entered fiscal 2027 with record backlog, while improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of its optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions architecture. 10. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rocket Lab $RKLB and raised its price target to $132, saying the company delivered a “beat and raise” quarter with Q2 results ahead of expectations across revenue, margins, and EBITDA. Rocket Lab signed 26 new Electron/HASTE missions, expanded total launch backlog to more than 90 missions, and grew overall backlog to roughly $2.4B, with another $800M of bookings added after quarter-end. Stifel also highlighted accelerating Space Systems revenue as SDA programs ramp, multiple defense awards, and continued progress on Neutron, which remains on schedule for pad delivery in Q4’26. The firm said Rocket Lab’s Iridium acquisition, GHOST launch system, defense exposure, backlog visibility, and limited competition create a compelling long-term risk/reward despite near-term cash burn. 11. Schwab clients were net buyers of ETFs and equities in July by a 2:1 ratio. The top stocks bought were $SPCX, $MU, $INTC, $ORCL, and $TSLA, while the top stocks sold were $AAPL, $AVGO, $ADBE, $PYPL, and $AMD. The data shows retail leaning back into high-beta AI, memory, and space-linked names while trimming exposure to some of the market’s more mature tech leaders. 12. The SEC is reportedly preparing to roll out two major crypto initiatives $BTC $ETH as the Clarity Act stalls in Congress, according to Bloomberg. The agency will hold an open meeting Friday to create a tailored offering regime for certain crypto-related investment contracts. The SEC is also expected to unveil an “innovation exemption” for trading tokenized securities, potentially paving the way for 24/7 trading of stock tokens on blockchains. Details could be released as soon as Friday, though the proposal is still being finalized and could change. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

CITADEL: WE BELIEVE SYSTEMATIC BUYERS ARE GETTING READY TO LOAD UP ON STOCKS AGAIN AFTER A MASSIVE UNWIND - scare everyone into a rate hike that wouldn't happen - crash the AI trade and pickup the best names at dirt cheap levels - pump the AI trade again to benefit ruthless

$CRWV COREWEAVE CRUSHES Q2 2026 EARNINGS: - Revenue $2.575B +112% YoY - Adjusted EBITDA $1.51B +101% YoY - Adjusted EBITDA Margin 59% - Revenue Backlog of $104B - Active Power 1.5 GW, Contracted Power 3.7 GW - Added $25B+ of New Customer Commitments in Early Q3 CEO Michael Intrator: "CoreWeave reached an important inflection point this quarter as our scale began to translate into expanding operating leverage. Customer demand is accelerating, as enterprise adoption broadens and we continue to deepen our technology platform." Pretty incredible execution with margin expansion to 59% and adding 500MW of capacity. Still down 30% from the highs but up 72% from the lows of July.

WSJ says Anthropic IPO in October… Are you a buyer? If so, what valuation? - Current run rate is $70B ARR - Raised at $965B, probably going to aim for $1.5T valuation on IPO The S1 will be really important to see the path to profitability and how much capex they are spending. A successful IPO probably setups the stage for OpenAI to go public in 2027, but public markets will have to believe in the sustainability of their growth. Worst case scenario is a pump like SPCX but nothing to sustain it and then a 50% drawdown, but in the case would likely affect other semi companies that ultimately benefit from Anthropic’s spend.

SCHWAB CLIENTS IN JULY WERE NET BUYERS BY A 2:1 RATIO IN ETFS AND EQUITIES. Top stocks bought: - $SPCX - $MU - $INTC - $ORCL - $TSLA Top stocks sold: - $AAPL - $AVGO - $ADBE - $PYPL - $AMD

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Nvidia $NVDA announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create independent AI compute financing platforms designed to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital over time. The goal is to turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class, helping fund the global buildout of AI factories while giving Nvidia customers access to large pools of capital at attractive rates. Jensen: “In AI, compute is revenue. NVIDIA compute is uniquely suited for this role. It is broadly adopted, flexible across models and workloads, fungible and transferable across customers and operators, and continuously improved through CUDA software. That is why we are bringing the world’s leading long-term capital providers together to independently underwrite AI infrastructure. These financing platforms will help customers access scarce compute at scale and build the DSX AI factories that will power every industry and country in the age of AI.” 2. Meta $META released Muse Glimmer, a new 30B-parameter dense AI model with open weights that can run locally, with weights for Muse Spark 1.2 expected to follow soon. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also said he believes everyone will eventually have a personal AI agent that understands them and what they care about. 3. Chinese humanoid robot makers accounted for more than 97% of global shipments in 1H26, with volumes more than tripling to 19,100 units. Agibot led the market with a 44% share, while industrial and commercial use cases made up over 70% of shipments. Unitree Robotics is also going public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange at a $9 billion valuation, with its IPO oversubscribed by retail investors by 8000%. 4. Microsoft $MSFT plans to unveil its next-generation Maia 300 AI chip in September, according to The Information, marking progress after a slower start for its in-house silicon program. Microsoft reportedly plans to expand internal use of Maia while also targeting major external customers. The move could give Microsoft more control over the AI infrastructure powering its services as demand for compute continues to surge. 5. Rocket Lab $RKLB reported Q2’26 revenue of $234M, slightly ahead of estimates of $231M, up 62% YoY. EPS came in at -$0.08 versus -$0.07 expected, while backlog reached a record $2.36B, up 137% YoY. For Q3, Rocket Lab guided revenue to $250M–$265M, above estimates of $239M, with non-GAAP gross margin expected at 35%–37%. Non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 was 41.5%, while net loss was $49.3M. Business highlights included the announced Iridium acquisition and the launch of GHOST, a globally deployable launch system. Management said backlog growth, combined with new Q3 deals, represents more than $1B in new contracts across launch and space systems, positioning Rocket Lab to become a self-launching, tier-1 space power. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.6M contracts, $TSLA with 1.9M contracts, $AAPL with 1.2M contracts, $SPCX with 1.2M contracts, $MSFT with 1.1M contracts, $MU with 945K contracts, $INTC with 880K contracts, $PLTR with 803K contracts, $AMZN with 778K contracts, and $META with 704K contracts. 7. Hims & Hers $HIMS reported Q2’26 revenue of $753.2M, beating estimates of $700M, up 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $60.3M versus $47.2M expected, while subscribers rose 19% YoY to 2.891M. U.S. revenue grew 16% YoY to $621.8M, while Rest of World revenue surged 1,641% YoY to $131.4M, helped by the close of the Eucalyptus acquisition in June. For Q3, Hims guided revenue to $880M–$900M, well above estimates of $793M. For FY26, the company raised revenue guidance to $3.1B–$3.3B versus $2.93B expected, while reiterating increased conviction in its 2030 targets of at least $6.5B in revenue and $1.3B in adjusted EBITDA. 8. Earnings season is nearly complete, and results have been much stronger than expected. With almost 90% of S&P 500 companies reported, Q2 EPS is now projected to rise 30% YoY excluding investment mark-ups from Alphabet and Amazon, well above the 22% consensus forecast from July 1. Including those one-time gains, EPS growth jumps to nearly 50% YoY. Meanwhile, 76% of companies have beaten EPS expectations, matching last quarter’s beat rate, which was the highest since 2021. 9. Intel $INTC announced a proposed $15B underwritten public offering of common stock, with proceeds intended for general corporate purposes, including CapEx and working capital. The company said customer demand remains strong, driven by major investment in AI compute, with growth opportunities across physical AI, purpose-built silicon, advanced packaging, and external wafers. Intel also expects to give underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional $2.25B of common stock, while emphasizing that the raise is meant to support growth opportunities, maintain balance sheet strength, and preserve its investment-grade rating. 10. Trading volume across the 7 leveraged ETFs tied to $SKHY SK Hynix has collapsed nearly 90% to less than 100M shares/day after regulators raised the minimum cash deposit required to trade the products, effective July 31. The stock decline and tighter rules have shaken out retail investors who chased the rally, with roughly 1T won ($710M) in retail accounts facing forced liquidation in June and another 993B won ($700M) in July, the two largest forced-liquidation months this year. Margin loan balances have fallen to 27.4T won ($19.3B) as of August 4, the lowest level of the year. Morgan Stanley estimates the deleveraging process is now more than halfway complete, though foreign investors remain cautious after selling $30B in June, another $6.2B in July, and $4.3B so far in August. 11. Bank of America is sticking with its call for 75 bps of Fed rate hikes this year despite weaker labor data. U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while prior months were revised down by another 103,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, wage growth slowed to 3.2%, and labor-force participation slipped. Even with hiring softening, BofA still expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September, arguing that inflation remains the central concern. 12. Micron $MU today said customers remain largely insensitive to memory pricing as data center demand continues to outstrip supply, with the company saying it cannot meet even half of current customer needs. Management also pointed to demand signals extending multiple years, though it did not provide a specific update to quarterly guidance. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$NVDA Okay, so let’s talk about what Nvidia actually announced today… I’ll present the bear and the bull case. I lean more bullish for reasons that are below, but I want to highlight both sides and what this means for the broader AI industry. So, what did Jensen do today that required 6 of the most important bankers to sit with him live on national television? Well, he just secured $500B of revenue for Nvidia. The entire press release is centered around financing supply for NVIDIA compute with a “rich ecosystem of offtakers built upon NVIDIA’S CUDA platform.” The announcement literally ends by saying “this will create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for NVIDIA customers.” This move is not to increase supply for the demand that Broadcom, AMD, Google TPUs, etc. are seeing. This move may help all those companies find ways for more buyers to potentially finance their products as more money enters the ecosystem, but this is explicitly a move that Jensen is making to secure $500B of demand that will flood into Nvidia. It’s a very, very smart move. How do I envision it playing out? Let’s say a neocloud needs $5B of capital to buy Nvidia GPUs. Now, Nvidia does $100B+ of FCF, they obviously could invest in that neocloud or just give that neocloud a loan to buy their chips. But, that ends up putting some strain on their balance sheet. Nvidia has an excellent balance sheet, just increased their dividend by 25X, and has committed $80B to buybacks. So, instead of Nvidia taking on the financial risk, they essentially vet the neocloud and tell Goldman Sachs that this company deserves a $5B loan. Goldman trusts Jensen, they give the neocloud the money, the neocloud then spends it on Nvidia chips, eventually the ROI from that compute goes back to paying Goldman with interest, which is the entire business of a bank, lending capital to customers with an attractive risk profile to make a return on that capital. The combined banks Nvidia is working with have 25T in assets. They are committing $500B of those assets for this project. Okay…the bull and bear cases. Bull: - Obviously, great for Nvidia has they remove all financial risk but get financial institutions to make a loan that directly will go back to Nvidia in the form of chip sales. - Should be good for memory, CPUs, optics, packaging, photonics, all parts of the semi stack. You can’t just buy Nvidia chips, you need to buy everything that goes into it and so all the semi names likely see their earnings continued to be sustained with hyperscaler capex and now a fresh 500B entering into the ecosystem. The market did not take those names up afterhours on this deal which likely means the market is still trying to figure out how bullish this is and if it’s sustainable. - Compute as an asset class is the main thing that was discussed today which is what the financial institutions want: they would like to build futures/derivatives products on compute like they do for oil, crypto, real estate mortgages, etc. and create a new financial asset class that allows liquidity and fees to emerge. This is, in my opinion, the number one reason the banks are interested: the more compute, the more financial applications to speculate on that compute while trusting that Jensen knows how to allocate this 500B to continue progressing AI globally. Bear: - It’s circular financing. If no ROI on all the companies these banks put money into, even with Jensen’s approval, the loans don’t get paid back and if Nvidia has to promise to backstop those loans in someway, it could create a major risk to their balance sheet. - Nvidia picks the wrong labs or clouds to invest in. Nvidia has been pretty good at allocating capital, but if they end up giving money to companies that will buy their chips but ultimately can’t execute (like having a ton of GPUs but not strong enough to set up datacenters quickly) then there will be questions around why those companies got the money which could lead the banks to not want to give out more loans, these are just MOUs, not confirmed agreements to begin allocating capital. - Too much leverage in the system. If we do start to see financial derivatives of compute as an asset class, then there may be too many people speculating and with that speculation comes for the potential to have bad underwriting and essentially create too many products around compute that don’t actually provide any value which eventually collapses. Ultimately, I lean on the bullish side because I believe there is an ROI coming from this compute. If there wasn’t, it’s just money switching hands back and forth with no real value. Ultimately, the market will have to see additional innovations in AI beyond just agentic inference which effectively has defined 2026 to see demand continuing to grow but also believe that the real value to GDP and productivity shows up in earnings growth (which we are seeing this year with S&P earnings) to make sense of this $500B entering into the ecosystem. If the ROI continues along with earnings growth, I would imagine the market feels like the fresh capital is going to only create more innovation and more growth which would be rewarded. What do you think, bullish or bearish on this announcement?

$NVDA JENSEN IS LIVE WITH THE CEOS OF GOLDMAN SACHS, BLACKROCK, BLACKSTONE KKR, BROOKFIELD, AND APOLLO TO EXPLAIN THIS NEW $500B DEAL: “Compute is becoming an asset class.” x.com/amitisinvesting/status/2…

BURRY: - I BOUGHT MORE PUTS ON $PLTR PALANTIR FOR MARCH 2027 $100 STRIKES - I THINK THE COMPANY'S SHARES ARE WORTH UNDER $1 IN THE LONG RUN i understand those Q2 earnings were so good that Burry probably couldn't sleep for a few days but doubling down might not be the right strategy bro is shorting reality at this point 💀

semis weak again photonics full on rugpull today memory flat, neoclouds flat what's green? software, hyperscalers, financials, healthcare, and defense names honestly just feels like a simple shift with the names that were stuck all year now breaking out and the names that broke out are consolidating if oil didn't spike 5% today then maybe more high beta names would have been green, but not really unhealthy price action with SPY trading at all time highs

FINANCIAL TIMES: - Nvidia is partnering with Apollo, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs and others on a massive $500B AI Financing Deal. - Deal could be announced as soon as today $NVDA $GS $APO $BX looks like some more money is getting ready to help build out these datacenters

BERKSHIRE IS BUYING STOCKS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2022: - Bought $25B of stock, sold $3.7B - Bought Taylor Morrison Home for $6.8B - Invested $10B in Alphabet $GOOGL during Q2, now a top 5 holding - Even bought $4.5B of their own stock back berkshire’s back

Woah. One of the biggest public bulls on memory just sold all his memory stocks. This is quite interesting. For the past few months, if you mentioned anything bearish on memory without having a position (short or long) the comments from people who seemingly got on the train at $700-$800 would decimate you. “You missed the run. You don’t get it. You’re jealous.” Instead of actively engaging with some basic bear cases (memory optimization, prices peaking, supply coming online) you just got pushback. Even if you’d say that buybacks aren’t really a strategy on what to do with excess cash…you’d be labeled as someone who doesn’t understand why buybacks are good. As if Apple buying back their stock with sustainable growth is the same as a commodity supplier in the greatest supply/demand imbalance we have ever seen doing buybacks as well? I personally believe $MU probably has a fair value closer to $1500, but if the broader market has external concerns that discount those future cashflows, then obviously that can hurt the potential for that price action. I am not bearish, not short, just on the sidelines because I missed the run and didn’t want to chase. The bulls not willing to even hear the bear case is one again a reminder that when a group of people ignore anything that could deter the thesis, it tends to be a red flag. Having said that, Hynix and Samsung can’t go down. If they do, Korea is done. I think this would be bad for US stocks. Would really like to not see that because I have high beta exposure and would like US memory stocks to do well because many other semi names follow those names. My biggest issue is whenever I ask people if they are in memory stocks for a trade or an investment, literally 99% say it’s a trade. No one wants to hold for 5 years. If so, then that means there is really doubt on the sustainability of those earnings which is what the market may be thinking right now. I do feel like much of the fear is priced in and hopefully a short term bounce is near but it would require momentum to come back into these names. Is anyone buying the memory dip?

so…the S&P is basically at ATHs Trump has said 7 different times this week that he wants a deal with Iran Bessent said a ceasefire could be announced over the weekend Rate hike probabilities tanked by 20% today because of the labor market data $PLTR is up 40% in a week…which means the software stocks are finally getting the respect they deserve including $MSFT $RDDT $SHOP earnings continue to compound aggressively the super high-beta semi names are consolidating like $MU $NBIS which isn’t bearish at all, especially when their growth continues to be massive hyperscalers continue to spend on capex and cloud growth rates are showing the ROI leverage also has been wiped out significantly feels like we could be setting up for an end of year run IF hikes are out of the picture and earnings continue strong the main bear case felt like oil/leverage/war/hikes my only fear is OpenAI and Anthropic’s numbers not being meaningful enough to carry out their spending commitments but those will be shown over time if those broader bear cases are not as relevant as inflation comes down…maybe we can continue with the momentum

$PLTR +40% in a week it took three quarters of flawless execution this year for the market to remember that the value from AI is being derived via Palantir’s approach to building for outcomes vs just tokens have not seen $170 since January, back to a $400B market cap LFG

street really sold off $RDDT to $135 last week on 178% earnings growth 😆

$MSFT Bill Gates sold his foundation's 7.6M shares of Microsoft...at the bottom. +30% since then

so in July we LOST 23K jobs vs expectations of adding 83K jobs for nonfarm payrolls we also revised June's numbers down by 37K jobs the chance of a rate hike in september just went from 60% to 40% and $SPX is up +0.5% in the premarket 10yr down to 4.6% anything that helps inflation come down...the market loves

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be open to a September rate hike if upcoming inflation data comes in hot and markets begin pricing in higher borrowing costs, according to people familiar with his thinking. The report adds to the renewed focus on whether the Fed may have to turn more hawkish if inflation pressure reaccelerates. 2. Michael Burry reportedly opened large short positions in Nebius $NBIS at $211.77 and Oracle $ORCL at $144.63, marking the first time he has taken a position in $NBIS. Burry framed the trade around AI infrastructure leverage and off-balance-sheet obligations, saying: “The fish have gorged themselves on off-balance sheet liabilities. Backstops. Uncommenced leases. Purchase commitments. The fish have gotten very fat, very large, easy to shoot. Also, so large that it shan’t be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen.” 3. Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI reported Q2’26 revenue of $191.9M, slightly ahead of estimates of $190M and up 86% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.06 versus $0.01 expected, while non-GAAP net income reached $5.5M, above estimates of $1.7M. For Q3, the company guided revenue to $255M–$290M versus $278M expected, with EPS of $0.11–$0.26 and non-GAAP gross margin of 29%–30.5%. Management said AAOI delivered record revenue for the 5th consecutive quarter and returned to non-GAAP profitability, while noting that demand is expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027. 4. The June JOLTS report showed job openings easing by 178,000 to 7.359M, missing estimates of 7.454M, though openings remain above the January 2020 level of 7.124M. The openings-to-unemployed ratio edged up to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. Hiring improved, with hires rising 96,000 to 5.348M and the hiring rate increasing to 3.4%, led by health care and construction. Quits, a key measure of labor market confidence, rose 79,000 to 3.232M, the highest in nearly a year, while layoffs were essentially flat at 1.766M with the layoff rate unchanged at 1.1%. 5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.9M contracts, $SPCX with 1.7M contracts, $AAPL with 1.3M contracts, $TSLA with 1.2M contracts, $MU with 820K contracts, $MSFT with 690K contracts, $INTC with 586K contracts, $HTZ with 584K contracts, $PLTR with 477K contracts, and $ET with 473K contracts. 6. Private business investment in AI-related categories jumped $300B YoY in Q2 2026, up 25% to a record $1.5T annualized rate. The increase was led by spending on computers and peripheral equipment, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. Over the last two years, AI-related business investment has surged $500B, or 50%, with investment in computers and peripherals more than doubling. Direct AI investment is now estimated to account for 25%–33% of recent U.S. GDP growth. 7. Google $GOOGL is reportedly planning to raise money through a U.S. investment-grade bond offering. The company has started marketing notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from 2 years to 40 years, according to Bloomberg. Initial price talk for the longest-dated tranche is around 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries. 8. Tether purchased 14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth roughly $18.8B. The company previously bought 53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, with its gold holdings more than doubling since Q1 2025 and their value nearly tripling over the same period. Tether is now the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and governments. In the first half of 2026, only 4 central banks bought more gold than Tether: Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan. 9. Amazon $AMZN founder Jeff Bezos filed for the sale of 1,209,649 Amazon shares at $286.41 per share. The transaction brought in roughly $346.5M before taxes. 10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers. 11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high. 12. Alibaba $BABA reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

BURRY: - SHORTED NEBIUS $NBIS IN LARGE SIZE AT $211.77 - SHORTED ORACLE $ORCL AT $144.63 first time Burry has taken a position on $NBIS

everything is so choppy i guess that’s better than what we saw in july but hard to trust literally any move right now fear and greed back to 63, highest level since late May

love you $RKLB but after 3 failed breakouts above $80 it was time to go down kinda feels like they pumped the entire space sector today to make people feel comfortable to buy before the SpaceX lockup expires side note: have been learning how to trade over the past 2 months (still have much, much more to learn) but $RKLB broke VWAP for the second time in 15 minutes and saw a pretty simple 5/9 ema crossover that made the short attractive some of these parabolic moves on zero catalysts usually need time to consolidate so my long portfolio is happy with RKLB today but my trading account also felt that rejecting $80 three times in an hour meant some downside had a chance of happening 😂

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. SanDisk $SNDK reported Q4 revenue of $8.97B, beating estimates of $8.6B, up 372% YoY and 51% QoQ. Adjusted EPS came in at $39.25 versus $34.45 expected, while adjusted gross margin reached 84.6%, above estimates of 81.5%. Datacenter revenue jumped 103% QoQ to $2.98B, Edge revenue rose 48% QoQ and 392% YoY to $5.43B, while Consumer revenue declined to $556M. For Q1’27, SanDisk guided revenue of $10.3B–$10.8B, below the $11.1B estimate, with adjusted EPS of $44.00–$46.00. The company also announced a new $14B buyback authorization, bringing total remaining repurchase capacity to $15.5B. 2. President Trump warned Iran that if it backs out again, “they’re going to get hit really hard,” adding that the U.S. has “no choice” because Iran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. He also said the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened very soon, either through an agreement or by force, saying, “the Strait is going to be open very soon — or they’re gonna hit very hard.” 3. China’s gold-backed ETFs have seen 14 straight days of inflows through Monday, their longest streak since March. Over that stretch, the funds attracted roughly $1.2B, including a largest single-day inflow of $370M. The rebound follows a sharp reversal after Chinese gold ETFs posted outflows in 38 of 44 trading sessions. The renewed demand comes as volatility in China’s equity market pushes investors, especially institutions, back toward alternative assets. Gold was up about 4% today. 4. U.S. job openings fell by 178,000 in June to 7.36M, the lowest level since March and the second straight monthly decline. Openings are now down 226,000 over the past two months, led by drops in private education and health services (-133,000), leisure and hospitality (-86,000), wholesale trade (-74,000), and professional and business services (-71,000). Even with the slowdown, there are still 265,000 more job openings than unemployed workers, the second-largest gap since January 2025. The job openings-to-unemployed ratio remains at 1.0, its highest level since January 2025. 5. Situational Awareness is reportedly back to investing with a new $400M bet in a privately held company, according to Bloomberg. The investment comes shortly after Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund nearly collapsed under a wave of margin calls from lenders last week, following a sharp unwind in its heavily levered AI bets. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 6.2M contracts, $SPCX with 2.2M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $AAPL with 1.5M contracts, $AMZN with 1.0M contracts, $AMD with 1.0M contracts, $MU with 942K contracts, $GOOGL with 941K contracts, $INTC with 801K contracts, and $MSFT with 712K contracts. 7. Microsoft $MSFT generated $24.1B in sales from OpenAI during the fiscal year ended June, representing roughly 70% of its actual AI revenue, according to disclosures cited by Bloomberg. The figure highlights how deeply Microsoft’s AI growth is tied to OpenAI usage and infrastructure demand. 8. Shopify $SHOP reported Q2’26 revenue of $3.58B, beating estimates of $3.45B, up 34% YoY. GMV rose to $115.6B versus $112.12B expected, while operating income increased 68% YoY to $488M and MRR came in at $221M. Subscription Solutions revenue grew to $802M, Merchant Solutions revenue reached $2.78B, gross profit rose to $1.71B, and free cash flow came in at $654M with an 18% FCF margin. For Q3, Shopify guided revenue growth in the low-thirties % YoY, gross profit dollar growth in the mid-to-high twenties %, and FCF margin in the high-teens to low-twenties % range. Management said Shopify delivered more than 30% growth across GMV, revenue, gross profit, and free cash flow, with GMV strength broad-based across merchant sizes, channels, and geographies. 9. Raymond James is sticking with its Strong Buy rating and $800 12-month price target on SpaceX $SPCX, despite the stock trading down after-hours. The firm said SpaceX “handily exceeded” Q2 expectations, with revenue of $7.8B, up 92% YoY, beating by roughly $1B across every modeled segment. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5B, well above the firm’s $1.99B estimate, with margins expanding to 44.9%. Backlog reached a record $47.5B, compute capacity increased to 1.4GW, and management advanced its internal $1T revenue framework by one year to 2030, reflecting accelerating AI demand. Raymond James said the near-term selloff reflects market friction and the upcoming lockup release, but believes fundamentals remain strong and forecasts are biased meaningfully higher. 10. $GOOGL Google’s AI leadership is reportedly undergoing a major reshuffle. Demis Hassabis is leaving his role as CEO of Google DeepMind to become chairman of the unit, while also adding the title of chief scientist at Alphabet and continuing to lead Isomorphic Labs. Google DeepMind CTO Koray Kavukcuoglu will become senior VP of the unit, reporting to Sundar Pichai. Meanwhile, longtime Google AI leader Jeff Dean is leaving to start Discovery Loop, an independent public benefit corporation backed by Google, alongside Sanjay Ghemawat, Oriol Vinyals, and Quoc Le. The shakeup comes as Google faces intensifying pressure to keep pace with OpenAI and Anthropic in frontier AI. 11. Zeta $ZETA closed up 12% at a 52-week high as analysts raised price targets following the company’s latest updates. KeyBanc increased its target to $27 from $22, Morgan Stanley raised to $25 from $23, and William Blair maintained a Buy rating. Analysts highlighted that the newly signed Palantir partnership is already producing results, with two agreements signed and more in the pipeline. They also pointed to early traction for Athena, especially among customers with over $1M in ARPU, driving higher usage and retention across the platform. 12. CoreWeave $CRWV signed a multi-year agreement with Solidigm, the SK hynix subsidiary, giving the company priority access to enterprise SSD capacity as AI cloud demand continues to scale. The deal helps CoreWeave secure critical storage supply for large AI workloads, reinforcing how infrastructure demand is expanding beyond GPUs into memory, networking, and high-performance storage. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.