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@amitisinvesting Earnings still look good enough to keep the bull case alive, but 4.7% on the 10-year is the one thing I really don’t love. Hard to ignore that if it keeps climbing.

@amitisinvesting Stay invested. Do not panic sell/exit the market waiting for an ideal entry-point.

@amitisinvesting Noise fades, but cost of capital sets the multiple. EPS growth keeps the bull market alive. 📊 $SPY

@amitisinvesting rate of change on earnings growth slowing, would be viewed as incrementally negative for the market. slower growth = lower multiple.

@amitisinvesting Nice Summary. It's like Trump is trying to crash the Economy.

@amitisinvesting Anthropic IPO will probably act like SpaceX but fall harder

@amitisinvesting Trump needs to take a chill pill and focus on midterms. Let things cool down with other nations

@amitisinvesting You forgot to add ‘h1b’ noise too, to the mighty untouchable, 30 trillion gdp Goliath 😂.

@amitisinvesting By growth you mean circular financing

@amitisinvesting We are getting to the end of the summer time, away from low volume soon. I don't know why but it always picks up around November. x.com/Starbuccaneers/status/20…

@amitisinvesting Ehh, im starting to believe this growth is merely the inflation caused by inflation reduction act just trickling into earnings reports

@amitisinvesting I agree Earnings can carry a market for a while, but stack an inflation fight, a live war, 4.7% yield and a trade war on top x.com/TheStockUp_/status/20920…

@amitisinvesting I’d be mind blown if feds hike, I’m a realtor and contractor in NJ. Buying a house here is nearly impossible for young families and very few can afford an addition.

not to be the guy replying to bond tweets, but the noise isnt a bessent problem anymore. 30yr at 5.3%, highest since 2007, while japan, germany and france all hit multi-decade highs at the same time. thats the whole world repricing, not just us fiscal credibility. anyway, back to my 3am bug

@amitisinvesting “- bond market screaming AFTER Bessent tried to calm it down, 10-yr still at 4.7%” No. The sovereign bond market has been screaming for months - long before Bessent performed his little stunt. Very concerning. 👍

@amitisinvesting Waves are receding from the shoreline at an alarming rate and nothing is making sense. What does your gut tell you when you see it? It's pretty clear what's coming. x.com/ThatsrightCT/status/2092…

@amitisinvesting DJT’s incompetence is front and center in all of this. This is a transformative period, (AI transition) even greater than the dot com ERA and we have an absolute farce of a government that is damaging the entire world. The U.S. has lost all credibility because of the GOP.

@amitisinvesting It’s why this has t collapsed. But it’s on a tight rope

@amitisinvesting Consumers are pulling back pretty hard on BNPL, which was hot and growing for 5-6 years now. Personal saving rate is also at record low. Hawkish members comments are fine, but they would make a mistake if they raise rate here. x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/2092…

@amitisinvesting no，trump can destroy America， not just noise

@amitisinvesting On point, this hits hard - American wages as a % at their lowest point since 1929 x.com/BullTheoryio/status/2091…

@amitisinvesting If AI is as transformative as predicted If the US wants to to retain the lead If it is both a national and economic security issue Then capital has to come from somewhere Hence, US Treasuries vs corporates And the tension is healthy - the competition will refine both…

@amitisinvesting The leadership of a great nation matters. Values matter. Wisdom. And decency. The simple things.- God bless y’all.

I think earnings growth vs cost of capital is the more useful way to frame this. Most headlines only matter to me if they change one of two things: The cash flows I’m underwriting The return investors require to own those cash flows Strong earnings can support valuations, but if the risk-free rate keeps moving higher, the hurdle those earnings need to clear rises with it.

@amitisinvesting earnings growth is legit, but that bond "noise" stops being just noise real quick if 10s keep grinding higher. can’t outrun discount rates forever.

When yields rise globally and the dollar still falls, that is not noise, that is the tell. The 30-year near 5.3%, Japan at a three-decade high, Germany firmest since 2011, and the dollar sits at a two-month low. Earnings justify the rally, but not a currency that refuses to confirm it.

@amitisinvesting ngl the “noise” is loud af right now. The one thing markets don’t like more than anything is uncertainty and there is plenty of that shit right now. Let’s just hope Nvidia throws another barnburner earnings report. In Jensen we trust

@amitisinvesting Strong earnings can carry sentiment, but they can't outrun the math of a 4.7% 10-year yield compressing long-duration valuations indefinitely

@amitisinvesting Earnings growth is the only fundamental that actually compounds. Everything else is just the market doing its usual panic theater. Stay long the real story.

@amitisinvesting Oil: hello what about me? - perfect storm for a deep, unnecessary recession.

@amitisinvesting u forgot to mention VIX near low of the year heading into peak seasonality

@amitisinvesting What I am hearing is the market is fearful so it means its a good time to buy?

@amitisinvesting Looks like most of them are caused by Trump. There could be a better world without him. 🥲

@amitisinvesting Lol noise. AI capex spending will be a footnote on what's to come here on the bonds. Feds don't have anymore levers as the markets are realizing this and shrugging any interventions to control the 10-year Treasury rates from continuing to rise.

@amitisinvesting Most names are actually holding up pretty well despite all of the crazy headwinds we have right now

@amitisinvesting We’re still in a bull market? Where’s the bull?

And I'm going to want something of the Anthropic IPO. - Not a lot of dry powder, and I'm hesitant to sell high-beta AI stocks; I may dip into some traditional funds. - My movements won't move any needle, but I can't be alone in this equation, and that's where there's unclear volatility.

@amitisinvesting Prior to both the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis, corporate earnings growth appeared robust and healthy on the surface, though it was driven by very different underlying dynamics and speculative excesses

@amitisinvesting The earnings growth is not real or sustainable. Nvidia and Amazon are funding OpenAI who is not a profitable company, in fact as their revenue increases their expenses increase faster. It’s all circular and will come to an end in the near future.

@amitisinvesting the best consistent updates on what is going on. appreciate this very much - periods and caps are not necessary

@amitisinvesting All I'm thinking about is how you came up with... "ear canull"

@amitisinvesting People who brag about SnP earnings should know that AI pulling that way forward and if you need proof , just look back 25 years ago

@amitisinvesting Anthropic ipo getting ready to dump on retail…. 😂😂😂😂

@amitisinvesting This chief with no planning, no ammo, no drones, and a ripped nuclear deal has a big problem.

@amitisinvesting Hard to ignore the bond market shouting over the earnings growth when yields are moving like this.

@amitisinvesting You call this a bull market!?

@amitisinvesting Earnings growth is still pretty good. Silver lining in the clouds ⛅

@amitisinvesting How are they going to dump on retail? Who’s buying that? Not retail

@amitisinvesting Even if the war ceases the damage has been done.

@amitisinvesting The bond market has been telling Trump that he needs to find a solution to the Iran war. This was evidenced when there was the ceasefire and negotiations were progressing towards an end. Since talks collapsed yields have continued to rise but trumps struggling to get deal done