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@amitisinvesting Your ability to break down market moves clearly is impressive. Useful insights every time. You and @Robert_Newman01 stand out.

@amitisinvesting $30T TAM, $2T valuation, and LLM commoditization still unproven — waiting feels smarter than jumping in. You and @jstudda_ both flagged this early.

@amitisinvesting Not buying every IPO makes sense

@amitisinvesting Wait wait wait

@amitisinvesting I’ll buy in 2-3 years

@amitisinvesting It’s a big trap, don’t buy into Anthropic ipo. SpaceX is much attractive at the same valuation

@amitisinvesting OpenAI and Anthropic going to pull the rug on retail like they are Aladdin’s Genie! 🧞‍♂️

@amitisinvesting Yeah, I’d def. play the waiting game

@amitisinvesting Biggest dump on retail is coming. I use QWEN on LMStudio on my MacBook and it provides same quality as Claude .

@amitisinvesting I want to see how their shares unlock first. If it's the same $SPCX bs yeah i'll wait.

@amitisinvesting Anthropic TAM: x.com/0xgoodie/status/20922846…

@amitisinvesting So ask your self this now. If the TAM is 30T, think about how much hardware you need to support 30T in software spend. This just adds more fuel to hardware. If you don’t believe this then the anthropic IPO is a scam and we’re all doomed.

@amitisinvesting dude take a step back please.... look at what happened the the space stocks after $SPCX then what will happen to AI stocks hyperscalers stocks? Anthropic needs to go public because private money is dry and paying 10 billion to spcx is expensive...

@amitisinvesting Valuation seems extremely less egregious than SPCX and we saw that stock recover significantly -- fading the first few days post-IPO probably smart, but I don't think you're going to get that much of a deal waiting much longer.

@amitisinvesting I don’t pity anyone who falls for this pump

@amitisinvesting Shorting it gng

@amitisinvesting I feel as if we all know how this is gonna go. Crazy IPO, will pump like crazy, get a reality check… and will crash back to reality.

@amitisinvesting #1 issue I have BY FAR is that I just don't trust that guy. Which means in turn, I don't trust the culture and company to execute on the opportunity.

@amitisinvesting It’s absolutely smart to not buy the IPO. Look at how IPOs perform immediately after launch date. We are the exit liquidity.

@amitisinvesting I dont care how much money they would make me I will never invest in them.

@amitisinvesting My TAM is 5T. Happy to take some VC money if any of y'all want to send it this way.

@amitisinvesting SPCX 2.0 History will repeat itself here. Need not look further than what happened in the space sector.

@amitisinvesting I have zero trust or belief in them. This aint SPCX and insiders will be wanting out. Its going to pump and crash

@amitisinvesting Crazy growth rate; however, competition is coming from everywhere and customers switch frequently between providers. $NVDA is hard-to-switch hardware, yet the market is not giving it enough credit. I wouldn’t touch Anthropic during its IPO. We’ve seen what happened with $SPCX

@amitisinvesting $3 trillion valuation possible post-IPO

@amitisinvesting I’m going to wait. Claude has been getting noticeably worse. I’m not sure they have the edge anymore

@amitisinvesting Easy short.

@amitisinvesting Just like with SPCX, request as many ipo shares as possible. Sell those for profit, wait for the crash, then buy shares

@amitisinvesting Or buy Sk telecom and sell on IPO day

@amitisinvesting Never bought anything in IPO

@amitisinvesting Anthropic can win AI while IPO buyers still lose money. If the offer prices in the moat before filings prove it, the sellers have captured the upside. I’d wait for the numbers.

@amitisinvesting Never ever buy an IPO. Just wait 3-6 months for the market to decide the real price. You may end up paying a little more, but you avoid over paying 2 or 3 X

@amitisinvesting Retail has been exit liquidity for some time now. It's an unfortunate reality but as long as you know the rules you can exploit it.

@amitisinvesting Tbf too broke to buy either way 🤠

Another angle to the analysis: with a 30T TAM, there’s no growth post saturation except population/inflation (the TAM is ~ “the economy”) Therefore, valuing something at 30-40 P/E or 10 P/S isn’t justifiable on future growth. Correctly underwritten, valuation should be more like a bond. The bond also has a form of credit risk: downside risk in pricing power & competition from other models You can get high multiples or the economy as your TAM, not both

@amitisinvesting This reeks….. fumes of desperation

@amitisinvesting I agree with your assessment!

@amitisinvesting 1000% waiting Plus Dario seems slippery

@amitisinvesting More and more IPOs are really dressed up memecoins / VC backed altcoins. Insane gains for insiders with juiced valuations waiting to dump on retail. I am happy tho for the employees that actually built products and becoming millionaires!

@amitisinvesting Very interesting, do you think it could pop like $SPCX then come back down?

@amitisinvesting I would think, or at least if I was holding a position in Anthropic and I was $GOOGL or $AMZN , I would monitize it and sell it. Be a customer but not an owner, because with price wars going so deep, it's likely down from here for a bit.

@amitisinvesting Lol 😂😂😂😂 hahahahhahahhhahhhaha .....

@amitisinvesting LLM, like any other ML model, is absolutely a commodity. A blackbox. One more component of your software stack inside agentic apps. There is absolutely nothing to prove here.

@amitisinvesting Not crazy!

@amitisinvesting Am i the only person that thinks Anthropic and OAI growth rates are cooked once open source models are adopted? There is a reason both are sprinting to IPO…

@amitisinvesting Uber did the same earlier

@amitisinvesting 100%. The majority of companies under perform post IPO for first two years. Also not convinced they can compete against open models long term.

@amitisinvesting Buying a a tech ipo almost never makes sense

@amitisinvesting do we know when the s1 are being released?

@amitisinvesting @stevenfiorillo Small position at IPO load up after dip