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@amitisinvesting Seriously I don't think the wall its going to end anytime eventho they initiate the economic war with Iran

@amitisinvesting Big Tech CapEx is funding the growth that keeps the debt from spiraling. That's the new economic reality.

@amitisinvesting The game he is playing weakens the dollar and causes inflation which will lead to higher rates. Total moron.

@amitisinvesting Good explanation. How does U.S. get out of Iran war when Iran is making a half dozen demands?

@amitisinvesting Big Tech bonds and Treasuries are now competing for the same buyers. Every dollar chasing a 6-8% corporate yield is a dollar not buying the 30Y, which is exactly why Bessent had to step in with buybacks.

@amitisinvesting AI might drive the growth America needs, but funding that boom is making borrowing more expensive right now. Ending the war would help oil and inflation, but it won’t make the $40 trillion debt problem disappear.

@amitisinvesting The paradox is real, but I’d challenge one point: corporate issuance alone doesn’t explain higher Treasury yields. Inflation expectations, term premium, fiscal supply and oil are likely bigger drivers. AI capex may amplify the pressure, but it isn’t the whole story. 📊🇺🇸

@amitisinvesting Sounds like pyramid scheme

@amitisinvesting Growth from debt-funded CapEx paid for by more debt the loop closes when Big Tech's AI ROI doesn't scale fast enough.

@amitisinvesting The credit market is basically telling the US government: ‘We like your companies more than we like you.’

@amitisinvesting Capex = GDP = Growth. We might be in a pickle

@amitisinvesting Not only getting out of Iran War, this is not enough

Demand for AI Capital is so high right now, even if we get out of this conflict, would still put pressure on longer end bond yield. The quickest way to reduce the pressure is to bring down inflation as quick as possible. We may be in high interest rate environment for 2027 as well.

@amitisinvesting Right that nobody is cutting spending. But growth alone doesn't fix it either. What matters is whether the economy grows faster than the interest owed on the debt. Beat that and the pile shrinks with no cuts at all.

@amitisinvesting You all just couldn't vote for the mediocre, status quo black lady.

@amitisinvesting Helluva perspective 👌👏👏

@amitisinvesting Hey did the Afghanistan war finish? Yes sir. Good let's start another war in the Middle East.

@amitisinvesting My internal plan is as follows ⬇️ chatgpt.com/s/t_6a86f45de8e481…

@amitisinvesting My market view 🔻🔻 The real question isn't whether AI capex grows, but whether markets can stomach the interest-rate math behind that $40T debt when the bill comes due. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

@amitisinvesting Thank you for the clarification

@amitisinvesting Amit is my goat fr

Hell yeah. Now we are going to see a fight for the competition for capital. Atm Washington needs money to finance $40T of debt and big tech needs money to finance AI infrastructure. So if corporate bonds keep offering materially higher yields than treasuries, the capital will get more expensive for everyone. But AI CapEx won't stop. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT and $ORCL these days are seeing compute as strategic infrastructure. It will stop rewarding who spends the most on AI and will start rewarding who generates enough cash flow to justify the cost of that capital. If oil falls and inflation expectations cool, treasury yields can ease and the pressure valve will open. Until then, the bond market decides the price and eventually the weakest balance sheet will pay for it.

@amitisinvesting Ai capex or bust

@amitisinvesting oil cant drop as much .. dont forget Ukraine are droning the shit out of russia and dmg oil refinery cannot go back online straight away ..

@amitisinvesting Excellent summary!

@amitisinvesting Good info. Amit is the smartest analyst on this app.

More accurately, Alphabet's operating cash generation actually grew ($84.9B vs. $63.9B), but capex nearly consumed it, turning debt and equity into supplements for a vanishing spending cushion rather than replacements for cash flow that disappeared. The century tranche in particular was a £1B slice with a 6.125% coupon within a $31.5B global offering that drew demand of nearly 10×. Hyperscaler issuance is projected at about $250B against $750B of capex, so debt is roughly one-third of the bill.

@amitisinvesting It’s insane isn’t it? The solution is in front of us but pride and ego are the only things getting in the way.

@amitisinvesting 📈

@amitisinvesting If ending the war lowers the inflation expectations, going by your logic ppl should sell more treasuries to buy better yielding Hyperscaler bonds ryt? ...I think for incremental capital there will more equity dilution rather than raising the it from the bond market.

@amitisinvesting Massive AI infrastructure spending requires continuous, multi-billion-dollar debt issuances that push market yields up across the board.

@amitisinvesting Love these summaries! please keep doing these

@amitisinvesting In a sense it’s the same position we’ve been in for over a millennium. People will continue to borrow and borrow money that doesn’t exist.

@amitisinvesting well summarized Amit!

@amitisinvesting Well explained brother. With all these problems, Market is still ATH - the best show on earth. lol 😆

@amitisinvesting Or rather, just print $$$

@amitisinvesting Big tech bonds are not the reason U.S. treasuries are falling. The treasury market is $30 trillion...the mag7 bonds are what? half a trillion?

@amitisinvesting Good job, Amit.

@amitisinvesting Fiscal dominance is the only way out

@amitisinvesting And you’re missing the entire point of the war. IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. Fuck the economy. Who cares. There wouldn’t be an economy if Iran gets a nuke and bombs America. It’s quite simple. The market will always bounce back. A nuclear bomb going off? NawZ

@amitisinvesting The problem is US can't end the war because Iran knows this weakness as well. They are on social media all the time looking for tips like this. x.com/Starbuccaneers/status/20…

@amitisinvesting Easier just for the entire Trump administration to resign.

@amitisinvesting @KTInvesting007 This war is directly driving inflation further up, however, inflation I think hit prior to the beginning of the Iran war.

@amitisinvesting Yet another informative, concise, interesting post. You are one of the best writers on X. Thanks for sharing.

@amitisinvesting With Iran war, the longer we wait to capitulate, the worse the deal we be for the U.S. As oil, inflation, and yields go higher, we lose more and more leverage. Just take the L and spin it as a win somehow to the MAGA tards who won't know the difference.

@amitisinvesting Trump is a winner. Winner winner Chicken weiner

@amitisinvesting Great analysis. The war cannot be stopped by just the US - the escalation crossed a line after Khomeni was killed. There is no going back

@amitisinvesting And if this economy has to be held up by AI capex spend by 5 companies then we are in a long trouble

@amitisinvesting There is no solution that doesn’t require a big shakeup, which no one wants. So this will continue until some domino falls

@amitisinvesting You have a very simplistic view of how easy it is to “end” a war.