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amit
@amitisinvesting

taking a flyer on $AAL back to $75 on crude will likely get us back to $16 on AAL and if we can get under $70 then the $18s are in play realistically, most of the airlines/cruiselines should benefit when oil goes down simple logic for oil going down? well, it’s down 3% today on the hint of cooperation from the Iranians with the Pakistani intermediaries if we actually get some meaningful updates on a deal (bond market is screaming to make some progress here) then most oil sensitive names should react all depends on when this war comes to an end or seems like it is ready to come to an end

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56 replies collected of 67 X reports
Ethan Caldwell @Write4Eddie · D

@amitisinvesting Really like the way you approach the market. Your research has taught me a lot, and I often get another useful perspective from @nickdannunzio.

JordanSabinsky @JordanSabinsky ·

@amitisinvesting Why AAL not DAL? Tepper went with AAL as well

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SondersMelody @SondersMelody ·

@amitisinvesting Amit, are you on Robinhood Social?

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Anirudh Vasudevan @vasuanirudh ·

@amitisinvesting Coming as a surprise. Thought you def going $UBER

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Scalar Field (YC P25) @scalar_field_ · A

@amitisinvesting $AAL is really a bet on peace. If oil falls back toward $75, airlines finally get room to breathe but the trade depends more on Iran than management.

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DanDerak24 @Professorloud ·

@amitisinvesting what do you think of $TTD

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StarBuccaneers @Starbuccaneers · B

@amitisinvesting Hate airline stocks but a trade is fine. So many things could crash it, examples: Sickness, accident, oil, weather, etc.

3 1
IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks · 742K A

@amitisinvesting A hidden play with your logic is precious metal miners since costs go down big time when diesel and oil goes down. Plus gold and silver pushing back up

1 20
Matt Hollis @mhoLLLis · C

@amitisinvesting They got a big boost from World Cup travel. I’ve been flying a lot this summer and I’m seeing more empty seats. Might go up from oil dropping as you said, but I wouldn’t hold it into next earnings.

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Dhanvin @dnrthoughts · D

@amitisinvesting $15 calls Jan ‘28 expiry look pretty good atm too

2 1
T @TradeKnowledge_ · D

@amitisinvesting Airlines rely on jet fuel not just oil being lower, and that situation is only getting worse. There's shortages in areas, and the price is 87% higher than last year.

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Neil @gasmann25 ·

@amitisinvesting This aint it chief

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Joshua Persaud @joshgetsitsold ·

@amitisinvesting I like it when you post your trades. thanks

2 5
ARCH CAPITAL @top_sach · D

@amitisinvesting Oil down and rates will be down for midterms

1
Martin Muldoon @MuldoonMartin · B

@amitisinvesting Jesus @amitisinvesting I thought American would have hedged for that, but according to their 10k they didn't. So.. yeah.

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Francis Hwang @Fbhwang · D

@amitisinvesting Great move! Should do well as a swing trade.

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Whatever. @ABC789HODL ·

@amitisinvesting $tdg is my air play

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Rajat Madaan @Therajatmadaan ·

@amitisinvesting Are you still holding your original bmnr position or did DCA ?

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Sam S @sam7sx ·
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sami @elsamihicham ·

@amitisinvesting AALL is a good idea but the chart is not yet ready

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Invest Alpha Pro @InvestAlphaPro ·

You just added 1,000 shares at $13.77 on this thesis. WTI’s sitting around $85-87 now, so getting to $75 needs actual de escalation, not just a headline, Brent’s round tripped on Iran news several times this year without breaking lower for good. What are you watching for real conviction here: a signed framework, or just follow through on any cooperation headline?

1 1
JJ Peralta @JJPeraltaa · D

@amitisinvesting good one

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Casey @Caseydids ·

@amitisinvesting What are your catalyst?

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Invest with Uncle Scrooge @ScrooogeUncle · B

@amitisinvesting You’re becoming Kris Patel

1 1
LEAPS Trading @LEAPSTrading · D

@amitisinvesting Oh, I thought someone wanted to buy shares in $AAPL but had a typo. I once had a typo in a buy order that cost me $400.

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Tactician @StonkTactician · D

@amitisinvesting I still think Iran will try to game it out. At least until past the midterms because if democrats win then Trump loses a lot of power for the war against Iran. Iran will try to keep oil prices high for as long as possible.

1 1
Orlando @thisisorlando · 17K A

@amitisinvesting $AAL is a classic cyclical play that benefits from lower oil prices Add the industrial broadening, solid travel demand, a strong chart, and someone agreeing with over $3M in Dec 2028 ITM calls swept today x.com/thisisorlando/status/209…

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Blake C @blacampb · D

@amitisinvesting Hey Amit- new to following but would like some clarification on your posts. Is this the only leg of the trade (buying long) or do you hedge and not show that part? Thanks for transparency and posting for others to maybe help them if they draw same conclusion.

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James Papadopopoulos @James_Papadop ·

@amitisinvesting What do u have as invalidation of longing $ALL? Under 12$ seems fair...

DunceDict @DunceDictNL · D

@amitisinvesting Why not $DAL ? Is it because they got their own refinery and it's already ''priced in''? Having cheaper oil means they can make it from even cheaper and then the share price should go up too? Or am i wrong in this case?

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Tanner Invests @Tanner_Invests · C

@amitisinvesting I see what you did there .. ✈️

ShaoLin Trader @Jingjing1332305 ·

@amitisinvesting how's your grab

Malt Flyde Crazier @MFallcapsDOOM ·

@amitisinvesting I thought the rule was never to invest in airlines?

12 rules for life (an antidote to chaos) @TuanLe01081991 · D

@amitisinvesting lol may as well get cruise line with Kris. Oil play

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hi @byehiselllo · D

@amitisinvesting We flyin?

blackorchid.xyz @blackor32226202 · D

@amitisinvesting Terrible analysis

The Long AJ @TheLongAJ ·

@amitisinvesting Man, you buy airlines now? Probably the worst business in the world!

Armaan Dhir @armaan_dhir ·

@amitisinvesting Was literally checking this today. Thanks bought shares too.

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Dan Johnson @CDanielJohnson ·

@amitisinvesting why shares and not LEAPs?

Jeff @bigjeffm · D

@amitisinvesting $AAL is the poorest run airline of the big 3. They just don’t run that airline efficiently.

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MauTheTrader @MauMolina737532 · D

@amitisinvesting Shut up Amit , u always think you know, you dont .

Always Stay Bullish @TechBull23 · D

@amitisinvesting Worst airline of all time. You must not like money Amit.

Valley fundementals @valleyinvesting ·

@amitisinvesting amit do you have robinhood social? if so what is your handle?

098_akshay @07Axay ·

@amitisinvesting Thanks for sharing!

WC Trading @waynec4153 ·

@amitisinvesting Hurricane season coming. If any of the oil refineries have to shut down then oil will shoot up

$hower_thought$ @Showr_Thoughts_ ·

@amitisinvesting Why not go with RIG if this is a bet towards crude ..

Anon @Anoni3wn · D

@amitisinvesting Idk, consumer spending is down and looks like it will only get worse. The only ones sheltered are high income folks… maybe delta is the play here?

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noot.xlm @tactical_noot · C

4 replies whose parent comment X withheld

amit @amitisinvesting · 604K A

@IncomeSharks @JordanSabinsky yup exactly AAL -10% this year DAL +18%

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JordanSabinsky @JordanSabinsky ·

@amitisinvesting Can you add ktos to your deep dive list for substack?! I think a lot of retail is missing all of the different revenue streams, and potential by just referring to it as a drone company. The ceo has also done some previous interviews if you are able to have him on

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IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks · 742K A

@amitisinvesting You are right though with airlines which gas is 30% of costs. Mining is more like 15 to 30% for some but generally oil swings mean precious metals go up with uncertainty so it's like a double bonus playing the costs.

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Blake C @blacampb · D

@amitisinvesting Appreciate it!

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