The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen below 300 million barrels, and time for US-Iran negotiations is shrinking. The SPR has dropped to 298.7 million barrels, with over 110 million barrels depleted since the start of the conflict. Over the past few months, the US has been simultaneously blocking Iranian ports and oil exports while releasing SPR to buffer supply gaps caused by transportation restrictions in the Hormuz region, essentially trading its strategic reserves for military and negotiation time. Now, with the SPR alarmingly low, this time is becoming increasingly valuable. As the SPR continues to decline, the US's ability to maintain the current situation will shrink. Continuing to drag on requires sustained depletion of strategic reserves, while reducing releases will increase domestic inflationary pressures. Therefore, the lower the SPR, the more urgently the US needs to resolve the Hormuz issue. This leads to two possible directions for the US: One is to accelerate an agreement with Iran, accepting more of Iran's demands on port blockades, asset unfreezing, sanctions, and Hormuz administration in exchange for the resumption of most commercial shipping. Another possibility is that negotiations remain stalled, and the US further escalates military pressure, hoping to force Iran to make concessions through stronger strikes. These two directions can actually coexist. The US can increase military threats while simultaneously making more concessions at the negotiating table, with the ultimate goal of restoring passage through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. For Iran, the lower the SPR (Special Purpose Ratio), the more valuable the Hormuz card becomes in the short term. The more eager the US is to resolve the issue, the more conditions Iran can negotiate. However, this card also carries risks. If Iran continues to raise its demands, pushing the US to the point where further negotiations are no longer feasible, the probability of military escalation will increase rapidly. Therefore, from my personal perspective, shorting oil remains a very correct choice (at least in my opinion), because facing Iran's lack of cooperation and the short-term depletion of strategic oil reserves, coupled with US inflation and the midterm elections, these factors indicate that the US can no longer afford to delay and needs to end the stalemate with Iran as soon as possible, whether through negotiations or force. @Gate Crypto, US Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks, Korean Stocks, Gold, CFDs, Prediction Markets - One-stop Trading
original · zh
美国战略石油储备跌破 3 亿桶,美伊谈判的时间正在被压缩 美国战略石油储备 SPR 已经降到 2.987 亿桶,战争开始以后累计消耗超过 1.1 亿桶。过去几个月,美国一边封锁伊朗的港口和石油出口,一边通过释放 SPR 缓冲霍尔木兹运输受限造成的供应缺口,相当于用自己的战略储备换取军事和谈判时间。 现在随着 SPR 的报警,这种时间越来越贵。SPR 继续下降,美国能够长期维持现在这种状态的空间就会越来越小。继续拖下去,需要持续消耗战略储备。而减少释放,又会增加国内通胀压力。所以 SPR 越低,美国越需要尽快解决霍尔木兹的问题。 这也会让美国接下来出现两个可能的方向。 一个是加快和伊朗达成协议,在港口封锁、资产解冻、制裁以及霍尔木兹管理权等问题上接受更多伊朗提出的条件,换取大部分商业航运恢复。 另一个是谈判继续没有进展,美国进一步提高军事压力,希望通过更强的打击迫使伊朗让步。 这两个方向其实可以同时存在。美国可以一边提高军事威胁,一边在谈判桌上做更多交换,最终目的都是尽快让霍尔木兹恢复通行。 对于伊朗来说,SPR 越低,霍尔木兹这张牌短期就越值钱。美国越急着解决问题,伊朗能够争取的条件越多。但这张牌同样存在风险,如果伊朗一直抬高条件,把美国逼到认为继续谈判已经无法解决问题的位置,军事升级的概率也会快速增加。 所以从我个人的观点来看,做空石油仍然是非常正确(起码我自己是这么认为的)选择,因为面对伊朗的不配合以及战略储备石油的短期,叠加美国通胀和中期大选,这些因素代表美国越来越不能继续拖延,需要尽快的结束和伊朗的僵局,不论是谈判还是武力。 @Gate Crypto、美股、港股、韩股、黄金、CFD、预测市场一站交易
所以川普的回答仍然是在“条件”上,讨价还价。并没有说完全放弃谈判。 https://x.com/PhyrexNi/status/2086863739480133667/photo/1