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无意中刷到这篇视频,我觉得挺好的,起码这位主播没有闭着眼胡说,还是问到了一些关键性的问题,尤其是提到数据根据的时候,我尝试回答一下啊: 1.虽然从8月初开始 Bitcoin 的长期持有者有些缩水了,但目前超过 155 天没有移动过的 bitcoin:native 有 1,476.2 万枚,也就是目前全部流通量的 73.52% 的 BTC 是处于长期持有的,这部分的 BTC 已经超过 半年 没有移动过了。 2. 持仓超过 10 枚 Bitcoin 的投资者,一共持有 1,663.3 万枚 BTC ,也就是目前流通总理的 82.86% 的 BTC 都在高净值投资者手中,结合数据 1 能明显知道,大多数的高净值投资者就是长期投资者。 3. 美国 Bitcoin 现货 ETF 从 2024年1月11日 到今天一共持有 1,242,260 枚 BTC ,其中持仓量最大的机构叫贝莱德,持仓 762,287 枚 BTC ,而贝莱德是全球最大的资金管理公司,美国机构投资者长期都处于增持状态。 4. 仅美国上市公司,目前就有大约 69 家公司合计持有 116 万枚 BTC。Strategy 一家公司目前就持有 840,447 枚 BTC。而且从 13F 的数据来看,上市企业持仓 BTC 的数据也是在一路增加的(包括 IBIT)。 5. 俄罗斯已经正式允许出口商和进口商使用 bitcoin:native 进行跨境结算,俄罗斯财政部长也已经确认俄罗斯企业使用国内挖出的 BTC 进行国际贸易。伊朗现在甚至已经开始在霍尔木兹相关海事服务中直接接受 Bitcoin 和其他数字资产。 对于这些国家来说,买 BTC 的理由根本不需要是Bitcoin 明年能不能涨到 15 万美元。而是只要美元账户可能被冻结、银行可能拒绝那么,那么用 BTC 结算仍然不会受到阻碍。

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看到Web2的老师这么评价比特币,我就知道比特币还有大幅的上涨空间。 有生之年,比特币绝对会是第一增长体,大胆一点,你在有生之年甚至会看到1000万美金一个比特币。 https://x.com/jiamibtc/status/2091861698265366810/video/1

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20 Reposts 2 Quotes 83 Likes 33 Bookmarks
replies reposts likes
31 replies collected of 40 X reports
王老登 @walledboss1 ·

@PhyrexNi Ni's analysis is very insightful.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 倪大分析的水平很高

老实人|美股·AI投资 @LaoshirenBTC · D

@PhyrexNi The value of Bitcoin is gradually being discovered and accepted by traditional finance.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi btc的价值逐渐被传统金融开始发现并接受

CoolNoodle @bul1ish ·

His surname is Shen, and he started out selling sea cucumbers on Taobao and Tmall, hence the nickname "Brother Shen." He initially frequented Zhihu (a Chinese Q&A website), and while he was involved in the cryptocurrency market early on, he realized it wasn't for him. Later, while maintaining a stable sea cucumber business, he transitioned to building a Douyin (TikTok) account, running private board meetings to earn membership fees from business owners, and connecting with various businesses and networks. Riding the wave of Douyin's popularity, he built a successful and successful business. He's a talented and intelligent person. Back in 2020, I had just entered the cryptocurrency world and didn't even have 30,000 yuan. I followed him on Zhihu. At the time, I was constantly looking for ways to make money, and I almost signed up for his training camp on selling sea cucumbers on Tmall, but I didn't go and focused on cryptocurrency trading instead.

original · zh

他姓沈,是淘宝天猫卖海参起家的,所以叫他参哥。 他最早混迹于初代知乎,早期他也参与过币圈,不过他发现自己不适合搞这个,后来在后方稳固卖海参的前提下,转型搞抖音账号,做私董会赚老板入会费,链接各种生意和人脉,趁着抖音的东风一路做大做强。 这人是个人才,很聪明。 20年那会儿我也刚入币圈不久,身上连3万块都没有,在知乎就关注过他,我当时一直在找赚钱的路子,当时差点想报名学习他的天猫店铺卖海参的培训营,不过后来没去,还是专心炒币了。

1
小币.eth @Amanda0xEth ·

@PhyrexNi Continue to add spot positions after a sharp drop

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 等暴跌继续加现货

交易沉思录 | 返佣专家 @g_tsydwqlc ·

@PhyrexNi It can go up or down, stronger than Myanmar A-shares. Buy when it falls, sell when it rises, it's that simple.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 能涨能跌,强过缅A。跌了买,涨了卖,就这么简单。

1
BNB🔶蛙蛙 @jiamibtc · 84K

@PhyrexNi Ni's sharing is full of valuable information, much better than what Brother Can shared!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 倪大分享的全是干货,比参哥强多了!

梭哈割 @suohage_ ·

@PhyrexNi I have a question: if Iran can use Bitcoin for settlement, will the US also short Bitcoin to sanction Iran?

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 有个疑问,如果伊朗可以用比特币结算,那美国会不会也会做空比特币来制裁伊朗呢

书瑶🌸 @SerenityDrcdog ·

@PhyrexNi I'm so horny 🎸🏃 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 我果然太涩了🎸🏃有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

fnvkpo dzhwm @dpbcbc131 ·

@PhyrexNi paper I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🎵 I'm incredibly lucky, you'll see!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi paper 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🎵我福不黑不信你看/

evgjhm elijj @evgjhmelijudsf ·

@PhyrexNi street Playing around is fine 😆I'm showing you something good ✨I'm not kidding /

original · zh

@PhyrexNi street 玩归玩闹归闹😆给你看福✨我不开玩笑 /

BBX @bbx_official · 32K D

@PhyrexNi Data provenance is the real dividing line. On-chain issuance and settlement are auditable, but adoption, liquidity, security risk, and valuation still need separate datasets—one chart cannot answer every claim.

马莹🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @MerryPerchxu ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🤮🎁 I'm not shameless, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🤮🎁我福不黑不信你看

币安交易所高返佣注册 @PRGYop · D

@PhyrexNi thinks it's pretty good.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 觉得挺好的

1

@PhyrexNi This data perspective is quite solid; the high percentage of long-term holders indicates that the holdings are relatively stable.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 这个数据角度挺扎实的,长期持有者占比高说明筹码还是比较稳的。

1
静月🌸 @SiennaColepok ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's having more fun than me 😝🧋 I'm not being shady, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的更开了吧😝🧋我福不黑不信你看

币圈及时雨 @qB9Ml6aFlowk36 ·

@PhyrexNi The data is solid and really powerful! I've already recommended it to all my friends.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 数据硬核真给力! 已推荐给所有朋友

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🍩😹 I'm not shady, you'll see.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🍩😹我福不黑不信你看

从南🌸 @SamaraFeatowm ·

@PhyrexNi I'm so horny 🍟🥊 Anyone want to give a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 我果然太涩了🍟🥊有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

Lily @fragrant_bower ·

@PhyrexNi More and more people are starting to support Bitcoin.

白梦🌸 @ScarlettPadm ·

@PhyrexNi Those prettier than me aren't as sexy as me 💃♟️ Those sexier than me aren't as pretty.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 比我好看的没我骚💃♟️比我骚的没我好看

milktea @pearllmmelt ·

@PhyrexNi High illiquid supply, institutional ETF accumulation, and nation-state cross-border adoption create a solid fundamental floor for Bitcoin. It’s no longer just speculation; it’s global financial infrastructure.

方娜🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @UsefulHawkwzdg ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🥵🥭 I'm not shady, you'll see.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🥵🥭我福不黑不信你看

樊晴🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @CuddlyIgua7p ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 💚🤟 I'm not shameless, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧💚🤟我福不黑不信你看

白晶🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @SamuelEdwanmwn ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🧐🪗 I'm not shameless, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🧐🪗我福不黑不信你看

kennygao2046 @kennygao2046 ·

First Layer: Demand Dollar fiscal issues ↓ Debasement trade AI abundance ↓ Scarcity premium Mature ETF channels ↓ Traditional financial funds entering Second Layer: Supply Large amounts of BTC remain stagnant for a long time ↓ Small free-floating supply ETFs continuously absorb ↓ Institutional holdings increase Corporate Treasury absorption ↓ Circulating supply further tightens Third Layer: Price Verification BTC/USD ↑ Gold/USD ↑ BTC/Gold ↑ ↓ Not only is the dollar falling, but Bitcoin is also starting to outperform another monetary scarce asset again. The simultaneous appearance of all three layers is a signal that truly deserves high attention.

original · zh

第一层:需求 美元财政问题 ↓ debasement trade AI abundance ↓ scarcity premium ETF渠道成熟 ↓ 传统金融资金进入 第二层:供给 大量BTC长期不动 ↓ 自由流通筹码小 ETF不断吸收 ↓ 机构持仓增加 企业Treasury吸收 ↓ 流通供给进一步变紧 第三层:价格验证 BTC/USD ↑ Gold/USD ↑ BTC/Gold ↑ ↓ 不仅是美元跌, 而且Bitcoin开始重新跑赢另一种货币性稀缺资产。 三层同时出现,才是真正值得高度重视的信号。

Peace @samho27506 ·

@PhyrexNi 倪大,長期揸住,但如何產生現金流? just like 黄金是没有現金流的。 好多 defi 是草台班子。你放心將BTc 交給他去做defi .

吴曼🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @MadisonMil0pw ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🥁🍷 I'm not shady, you'll see.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🥁🍷我福不黑不信你看

田甜🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @VioletRodrtbsi ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🗺️😍 I'm not shady, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🗺️😍我福不黑不信你看

韦佩🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @RoyRogersclm ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me ☠️🐶 I'm not being shady, you'll see.

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧☠️🐶我福不黑不信你看

云享掌门·观澜 @btcSHUANG · C

Solid data, and even includes caveats—rare indeed. Three points to add: ① The supply structure data indicates resilience against price drops, not necessarily price increases—the title is misleading; long-term resilience ≠ short-term price increases, and prices depend on marginal liquidity, not stock structure; ② The notion that "large addresses = long-term investors" is a misinterpretation. Many of these are exchange/ETF/institutional custody addresses (BlackRock's 760,000 tokens are among them), representing liquidity, not a diamond hand; ③ The settlement volume between Russia and Iran is extremely small relative to trading volume, a narrative, not buying pressure. These explain "why it won't drop drastically," not "why it will rise."

original · zh

数据扎实、还带caveat,难得。补三点:①供应结构是"跌不死"的数据,不是"会涨"的数据——标题问错了,长期韧性≠短期上涨,价格靠的是边际流动性不是存量结构;②"大额地址=长期投资者"是误读,里面一大堆是交易所/ETF/机构托管地址(贝莱德76万枚就在其中),是流动性筹码不是钻石手;③俄伊结算量相对交易量极小,是叙事不是买盘。这些解释的是"为什么跌不死",不是"为什么会涨"。

梁晴🌸同城上门♥线下选妃 @BrightYakmz ·

@PhyrexNi I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🎏🌘 I'm not as lucky as you think, just look!

original · zh

@PhyrexNi 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🎏🌘我福不黑不信你看