Stocks now account for 46% of U.S. household financial assets, significantly higher than the 38.7% during the dot-com bubble and setting a new record high.
This doesn't mean a crash is imminent, but it suggests that U.S. households are more susceptible to fluctuations in the stock market than ever before.
In other words, while the benefits of high stock prices are significant, the risk of a decline in consumption due to the negative wealth effect is also likely to increase during downturns.
The July employment statistics gave the impression that we are one step closer to a recession.
July employment statistics: Number of employed people down 23,000, weakness in hiring is evident | Buffett Taro note.com/buffett_taro/n/nfe899…
The commoditization of AI continues unabated
The cheaper AI usage becomes, the less profitable hyperscalers and AI development companies will be able to justify their massive AI investments
US company Meta provides code generation AI, usage fees 80% cheaper than Anthropique: Nikkei nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOGN062…
Serves them right lol
South Korean individual investors furious over stock market crash - directing their anger at the government on social media, even comparing it to casinos bloomberg.com/jp/news/articles…
The AI semiconductor boom may be over, but the AI market itself is not yet finished. I predict the market will hold out until autumn, mainly driven by hyperscalers.
Market Outlook｜Buffett Taro note.com/buffett_taro/n/ne2898…
If you want to predict the future of stock prices, pay attention to the growth rate. SK Hynix's sales growth rate (blue) is declining, its gross profit margin (green) is stagnating, and its EPS growth rate (brown) is falling sharply.
This suggests the end of the semiconductor boom.
KOSPI is down 44% from its June high.
There may be some rebounds forming a head and shoulders pattern in the future, but the semiconductor boom is over. x.com/buffett_taro/status/2082…
Stocks account for 41% of the net worth held by US households, indicating a high dependence on stocks. This means that while rising stock prices boost consumption, falling stock prices create headwinds and increase the risk of recession. x.com/buffett_taro/status/2082…
Last month, many individual investors aggressively bought SpaceX shares, believing it was like "traveling back 16 years and investing in Tesla right after its IPO." However, the stock is now down 24% from its initial price ($150).
If the market starts to believe the IPO price was wrong, it could affect Anthropique's IPO price as well.
