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@buffett_taro The stock market is actually rising on expectations of interest rate cuts, but I'm worried about the gap with the real economy 📉 It's difficult to decide whether to believe in short-term supply and demand or medium- to long-term fundamentals 🤔 This is a situation where calm assessment is necessary 💡 📊Stock information 📈👉🏼lin.ee/7938BFd.

@buffett_taro It feels like we've taken a step closer, that's exactly the atmosphere. What's particularly impactful is the downward revision of over 100,000 over the past two months, which confirms that the slowdown is the underlying trend, rather than just a fluctuation in a single month. The decline in the unemployment rate is also an apparent improvement due to a decrease in the labor force participation rate, and the substance is weaker than the numbers suggest. These are signs that we should be wary of as an early sign of a setback.

The feeling of being "one step closer" is the same. However, I think the most significant factor this time is not the 23,000 decrease in the headline itself, but the downward revision of 103,000 jobs gained in May and June combined. The decrease in July is due to a seasonal bias, with 50,000 jobs lost in local government education alone, but the fact that past figures have all disappeared at once is a sign that the weakness may not end in a month. So what we will be looking at next is not the sign in the preliminary report, but the direction of the revision and how far the weakness will spread, excluding special industries.If the benchmark revision on August 28th results in another downward revision, I intend to raise my vigilance against recession even further.

@buffett_taro The fact that the number of employed people is decreasing while stock prices are rising simultaneously is a little worrying, as it seems that a large part of it is being driven up by expectations of interest rate cuts. We should be mindful of the gap between the figures and reality.