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@buffett_taro NFP is unexpectedly in the negative... The market will have to decide whether to price in a slowdown in the economy or expectations of interest rate cuts more strongly.

Long-term interest rates fell as expectations of interest rate hikes receded, and stocks and gold rose.

@buffett_taro Hmm 😅 I'm hoping for an interest rate cut! I'm looking forward to seeing what happens in the US market after this.

While the negative NFP figures are certainly eye-catching, we shouldn't overlook the slowdown in average hourly earnings. A month-on-month increase of +0.1% is a clear slowdown, suggesting that wage inflationary pressures are easing. With both employment and wages weak, it's natural that expectations of a Fed interest rate hike are receding. The market's reaction to lower interest rates and a weaker dollar likely reflects this wage weakness.

What's most striking about this lineup is that while employment decreased, the unemployment rate was lower than expected. Looking at the details, the number of employed people decreased by 87,000, while the labor force decreased by 264,000, and the number of unemployed people decreased by 178,000. I believe the 4.1% figure is not so much due to "strong employment," but rather reflects the impact of a shrinking total number of people working or looking for work. This time, it seems more accurate to look at the labor force, employed people, and participation rate together, rather than just the fluctuations in the unemployment rate, to get a better picture of the reality.

@buffett_taro I was surprised because I thought they wouldn't release bad statistics until the midterm elections. I guess they were actually down around -200,000 and tried really hard to make it positive Well, I haven't really trusted employment statistics since the Biden administration anyway