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@amitisinvesting best scenario possible for stocks

@amitisinvesting x.com/i/grok/share/695e331f628…

WHEAT JUMPS AFTER RUSSIAN PORT STRIKE Wheat futures surged 2.4% after Ukrainian drones reportedly struck two grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port. The terminals handle roughly 15 million metric tons of grain exports annually, raising concerns over disruptions to Russian wheat shipments. The extent of the damage remains unclear, but analysts warn Russia could struggle to maintain normal export volumes. Corn rose 0.6%, while soybeans gained 0.3%.

@amitisinvesting won't be a hike before midterms; MAYBE December, but still not convinced it will be needed by then

@amitisinvesting “if oil comes under control” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. hormuz traffic’s still at 14 vessels a day versus 120 before the war, oil’s not coming under control anytime soon

@amitisinvesting UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ARE EXACERBATING GLOBAL GRAIN SHORTAGE AND DRIVING UP FOOD PRICES WORLDWIDE - RUSSIAN FORMIN

@amitisinvesting You don't say... You have to have been a moron to believe a rate hike was ever on the table.

@amitisinvesting the more you look at the data, the less justification there is for another hike. My sense of the sector picture into the final hour → sessionlevels.com/t/tier1-v1-2…

@amitisinvesting x.com/i/grok/share/7dcfbd70537…

@amitisinvesting and semiconductors like $MU $INTC $ARM look really perky if could establish a few trend days 👀🐝

@amitisinvesting The numbers are misleading! The oil spike is not reflected in the new numbers. A hike probability is rising soon.

@amitisinvesting Honestly, markets are finally waking up to what the data’s been screaming for weeks. x.com/i/grok/share/149a77f42be…

@amitisinvesting Interest rates staying the course x.com/TheStockUp_/status/20875…

@amitisinvesting x.com/i/grok/share/5341417b915…

@amitisinvesting Exactly—if oil cools off too, September becomes a total no-go for the Fed. x.com/i/grok/share/df177d526d5…

@amitisinvesting Honestly, even the data is starting to whisper that September's a no-go. x.com/i/grok/share/149a77f42be…

@amitisinvesting My strategy analysis ! ⬇️as follows 👇 👇x.com/i/grok/share/c3f7fea60a9….

@amitisinvesting The market doesn't even need cuts right now, fully pricing out rate hikes provides the exact same liquidity relief.

@amitisinvesting @Citadel is shaking with glee

@amitisinvesting If oil comes back down, earnings continue to impress and now with this CPI print I could see $SPY at 800 by year end honestly x.com/StonkcastShow/status/208…

@amitisinvesting Anyone that thought for 1 second that they will hike in the current economic state is a retard

@amitisinvesting but we have another 7 wars to go with Iran

@amitisinvesting Hold thru the elections.

@amitisinvesting My market view ⬇️⬇️ If oil cools further, September becomes a no-go for hikes—data just keeps backing the pause. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

@amitisinvesting oil is not coming under control any time soon

@amitisinvesting It could set up for a hell of a run…IF they can figure out a way to sustainably open SOH

@amitisinvesting Oil will sort itself soon enough, I don’t think Trump can afford to stay at war when he literally has not accomplished a thing.

@amitisinvesting Markets are relieved there's no hike. The colder read: at 3.4% sticky, there's no cut either. Every borrower who penciled in falling rates, the AI buildout most of all, now refinances into a wall that isn't moving. That's where losses get written, not in the print.

@amitisinvesting Iran knows this. If no deal they will ramp things up in October heading into November.

@amitisinvesting Agreed

@amitisinvesting But is oil gonna be able to come under control with the current US Iran issue?

@amitisinvesting but US10YT did not decrease

@amitisinvesting I wonder if they’re massaging the numbers 😑

@amitisinvesting my god equity investors are so damn gullible... ask yourselves why #gold is up and yields are not falling. answer below. x.com/reasonus4/status/2087537…

@amitisinvesting Oh

@amitisinvesting Iran and the Houtis have no reason to stop. We have no ammo.

@amitisinvesting What would encourage you to think that “oil comes under control” as long as our government is out of control?

@amitisinvesting A September hike may be less likely, but declaring victory with CPI at 3.4% seems premature. Oil is only one piece of the inflation puzzle.

@amitisinvesting 没事的 若真加息，靴子落地，美债利率会掉的更快

@amitisinvesting The weak and selective growth of stocks on good news and favorable geopolitics indicates either a decrease in liquidity or reduced activity during the holiday period.

@amitisinvesting Rate hikes have always been at zero.

@amitisinvesting x.com/yoyoyo777yo/status/20875…

@amitisinvesting Oil is at $83 right now. Adjust that back for inflation since 2020 and it’s only worth about $64 in 2020 dollars. Still not expensive when you look at it that way.

@amitisinvesting My internal plan is as follows! ⬇️ x.com/i/grok/share/cfd4cc3fbed…

Market is very much in a wait and see mode with respect to the Fed's reaction to the CPI. Fed Funds futures moved the odds of a hike in September from 50% to 38% after the CPI release. However, the SOFR curve has only moved expected rates down 3.5-4 bps across the Sep26-Dec27 contracts. Not a huge change in expectations in the derivative markets.