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@KobeissiLetter এহRise againg 🦅

@KobeissiLetter Best XC !

@KobeissiLetter Wiggas really thought we were getting a rate hike LOL

@KobeissiLetter the bull cycle never ends

@KobeissiLetter Still 70% above target of 2% devaluation

@KobeissiLetter CPI cooling to 3.4% is dragging September hike odds down to 34%, half of where they were late July. That pricing shift is real, but the next 6 weeks of inflation data will decide if the market stays dovish or gets surprised. Watch the core prints, not the headline.

@KobeissiLetter 3.4% CPI is insane. Those using the terms "cooled" or "expected" are lying to you. This is absolute theft of your purchasing power. This demands a rate hike.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/grok/share/78399dfa515…

@KobeissiLetter What you call a “decline” is actually just a slightly slower rise than before. Inflation is rising as long as the rate isn’t negative. You should know that.

This is the Fed reaction-function story. A softer CPI print reduces the immediate need for tighter policy, pushing September hike expectations down to 34% and easing the pressure on the front end of the $UST curve. The bigger question is whether inflation is genuinely moving back toward target or simply cooling enough to give the Fed breathing room. For FX, softer US rate expectations can weigh on $USD, while lower yields can support duration-sensitive assets and EM currencies. The next battle is inflation vs growth and the Fed now has more room to watch the labor market.

The drop to 34% pricing reflects markets reading this CPI as "good enough" to keep the Fed on hold, not necessarily cutting soon: terminal rate expectations are being repriced lower. But the odds are still above zero because services inflation remains sticky; the Fed will need more than one soft print to shift their language. The real takeaway is that bonds are now pricing a pause, while equities are pricing a pivot: that disconnect will eventually resolve with volatility.

@KobeissiLetter So the Fed's next move is getting less certain by the day—markets are clearly betting on patience now. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

@KobeissiLetter there will not be any rate hikes this year.

In unadjusted terms inflation has been near 0% for the last three months. Clearly this was an energy price spike and with a weak labor market it would have been utterly stupid to raise rates. So if you advocated for that count yourself among the stupid. Also, average weekly income in real terms has started to grow and inflation adjusted. For a short period it had turned negative since Trump got into office again but now it is back up to a net 0.5% gain in real spending power.

@KobeissiLetter I’d rather buy the Fed repricing than chase today's CPI headline. The first is a trend; the second is already in the price x.com/CoinPostMedia/status/208…

@KobeissiLetter So much for the "higher for longer" narrative—markets are repricing fast. My angle on where things stand near-term → caplevels.com/t/tier1-v1-20260…

@KobeissiLetter More fake news from the Trump administration

@KobeissiLetter Bad inflation number

@KobeissiLetter Honestly where are you getting this wrong info. We just got an update on Bloomberg that market expectation has been 45%, your posts are so misleading!!

@KobeissiLetter odds cut in half in two weeks is a fast repricing. between this and the weak jobs revisions from earlier this week, the fed’s got a much clearer case to stay patient into september

@KobeissiLetter #undisclosedad

@KobeissiLetter My market view ⬇️⬇️ Lower odds don’t mean no hike—just a slower path, so I’m watching wage data closely for the next pivot. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

@KobeissiLetter Markets just got a lot more comfortable with the Fed staying put in September📉

@KobeissiLetter x.com/Dj317930123/status/20875…

@KobeissiLetter Bullish.

@KobeissiLetter Fake numbers for a fake President

@KobeissiLetter Shorters are crying 🤣

@KobeissiLetter Because 3.4% is low 😂

3.4% year over year inflation driven price increases are still a dreadful burden on American households and businesses, especially since they are, sadly, routine. Rates should be hiked, theoretically, to fight this inflation. Enormous leverage throughout the system and a refusal to curtail our endless deficit spending make rate hikes extremely difficult to execute in practice.

@KobeissiLetter The cpi print is a lie lol

@KobeissiLetter As you are aware, these " market expectations" are typically wrong!

@KobeissiLetter An increase in interest rates wont build a new factory, find more oil or grow more beef. Stop printing money and curtail fraudulent govt spending. Decrease M2.

@KobeissiLetter Yes 👍

@KobeissiLetter Now imagine what will happen, when the Fed is actually going to hike rates.

@KobeissiLetter But we know from all data releases so far, that they just get revised in the wrong direction after they push out 'good' data on the day. That has been the playbook since Trump took over. Just look at the employment figures. 20/22 have been revised down after the fact.

@KobeissiLetter Well well well

@KobeissiLetter The odds halved. The curve behind them moved one basis point. July 27 to Aug 10: the 1-month forward went 3.80% to 3.79%. The 6-month, 4.10% to 4.00%. Both still price rates higher six months out. Single-meeting odds sit on a threshold. Small move in price, big move in percent. x.com/TrinityInsIO/status/2087…

@KobeissiLetter Not sure how they managed that with the Japanese bailout.

@KobeissiLetter 34% and falling fast is the real story — Fed rate path, not the CPI print itself. 3.4% still leaves room for a hike. Recession Tracker score's at 20 (Low-Mod); rate effects run 12-18mo and we're deep in that window. @RecessionTrackr

@KobeissiLetter 🔥

@KobeissiLetter A calm and rational approach is the attitude of a long term winner

@KobeissiLetter I like the fact I saw a paid partnership underneath the post..

@KobeissiLetter Polymarket is crypto, how does that reflect the market when only a small percentage use crypto?

@KobeissiLetter Rate cuts coming !

@KobeissiLetter Energy fell 1.5% and helped the print, but oil has risen since amid the Iran conflict. This will pressure CPI next time out

@KobeissiLetter All the numbers magically match expectation while consumer confidence is at 74 yr low. They're cooking the damn books people. How is it even statistically possible to have ZERO variations from expectations?

@KobeissiLetter The 34% probability assumes this CPI print overrides labor data; a hot payrolls release next week would quickly restore those odds.

@KobeissiLetter 34%? The market is practically screaming 'pause!

@KobeissiLetter The odds were 0% and always have been

@KobeissiLetter Odds moved on a print that eased because energy fell. Core went from flat in June to +0.2% in July. Still looks like a hold to me in September.