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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

The US government is ramping up hiring: Government job openings jumped +10,000 in June, to 823,000, the highest since June 2025. This marks the 4th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +98,000. Since November 2025, available vacancies in the government have surged +165,000. Meanwhile, federal government job openings rose +39,000 in June, to 139,000, the highest since October 2024. This marks the largest monthly increase since May 2024. Government hiring is soaring.

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Yus @Yusmetax ·

@KobeissiLetter এহRise againg 🦅

Yus @Yusmetax ·

@KobeissiLetter Best XC !

Blue Mafia @BlueMafia9 ·

@KobeissiLetter Government job openings hitting multi-year highs while private sector hiring stays uneven is a notable divergence.

Voidseeker @Voidseeker2su ·

@KobeissiLetter 🇺🇸 Government job openings are surging. 823,000 openings in June—the highest since June 2025—with federal openings reaching 139,000. That’s a significant jump in public-sector hiring. 📈

Michael Carter @Michaelcarter0_ ·

@KobeissiLetter Straight-up solid takes every time. You and @Robert_Newman01 are pretty much all I check.

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philskillz @philskillz ·

@KobeissiLetter Anywhere listed what sectors the govt is hiring?

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@KobeissiLetter 🔼 Time > Timing.

sheetala @Pinkcasso13 ·

@KobeissiLetter Join 🍨 ICE ... ain't it nice

Conor McJeeter @ConorMcJeeter ·

@KobeissiLetter So Trump fired everyone and now he's hiring to fill all those positions? 😂 Sounds like he's just trying to juice his jobs numbers.

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@KobeissiLetter And if this pace holds, we're looking at the biggest federal hiring spree in years. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

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V.C @Vthegreattt ·

@KobeissiLetter Folks are retiring.

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Nathaniel Cross @GlobalAnt_26 ·

@KobeissiLetter Appreciate your view. Makes total sense and easy to follow. You and @meghaan_s are the two I follow closely.

David Barnes @DavidBarns97 ·

@KobeissiLetter Hey @grok which kinds of jobs specifically ? and @grok were some of them the same jobs that were taken away when Trump became president?

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GaryVictory @Garyvictory28 ·

@KobeissiLetter We went through DOGE to eliminate goverment jobs and now we're hiring? Is this a plot to cover up the slowing job market so the goverment sector adds jobs to compensate for it?

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saietta @vsaietta ·

@KobeissiLetter openings and headcount are different series though, a jump in postings can just as easily mean turnover accelerating as it means net growth. worth checking whether actual government payrolls moved anywhere close to that 98k, or if this is mostly backfill.

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Douglas Swift @SwiftMacro ·

@KobeissiLetter Worth separating openings from actual hiring here. Still, four straight months of rising vacancies is interesting. Labor demand may be starting to rebuild before it shows up clearly in the headline employment numbers.

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VirtualBacon @virtualbacon · 230K

@KobeissiLetter Openings are job postings, not people hired. A posting can sit unfilled for months.

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@KobeissiLetter My trend summary ⬇️⬇️ Government hiring is clearly accelerating, and this isn't just noise—that's a 25% jump since November. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

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North Macro @NorthMacro ·

The key distinction: openings are intent, not paychecks. 823,000 government vacancies means the public sector could keep supporting the labor market if those seats get filled, but if they stay open it may just reflect staffing shortages or budget timing rather than actual job growth.

Bellwether Research (Ian Andy) @BellwetherRsrch ·

"Government" here mostly means state and local: schools, cities, county offices. Federal is the smaller slice, as the post's own breakdown shows. That distinction matters, because state and local hiring barely responds to interest rates or the business cycle. It runs on budgets and staffing plans, not on demand. So when recent payroll reports look sturdy, part of that sturdiness is public-sector hiring that happens regardless of what the economy or Fed is doing. It flatters the headline number. Public payrolls can stay firm while private demand cools, which means a jobs report that reads as healthy might be resting on one slice of hiring that ignores the economy entirely...

Halle B 🇺🇲🦅🐊 @Halle_Belly ·

@KobeissiLetter what the fuck. I thought Doge and Donald thought we had too many government employees. fuck Donald Trump and fuck Elon musk

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Kaidloscopes @kaidloscopes ·

@KobeissiLetter Adds persistent upward pressure on structural fiscal deficits.

Martin Laspada @ZMXL01 ·
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DailyMarketBrief @dailymktbrief ·

@KobeissiLetter Government payroll growth is fiscal stimulus by another name. Worth watching how this interacts with the Fed’s rate path, more hiring makes the soft landing case easier to argue.

Byrdsbie @byrdsbie ·

@KobeissiLetter I thought we were cutting back!

Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth ·

@KobeissiLetter Nothing cures private sector sluggishness quite like inventing another department to study why the private sector is sluggish

Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ ·

@KobeissiLetter Openings data alone cannot confirm a hiring surge; sustained payroll gains or outlays growth would be the required evidence.

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Macro Bombastic @MacroBombastic · 10K

@KobeissiLetter openings vs hires, but the divergence with private is telling

Conrad @Rdog1968 ·

@KobeissiLetter Looks like Dummy wants to beef up those Labor numbers.

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Rectangular Sphere @rectasphere ·

@KobeissiLetter Is this the same government/administration that was paying people to quit in the first year?

Beav w. Standards!! @1BeaverBeliever ·

@KobeissiLetter How about mass RIFS instead?? The only place that needs to hire is ICE

TopRamenNoodle @JATrades81 ·

@KobeissiLetter I hope they're all ICE agents.

tendieman @usatendie ·

@KobeissiLetter this is the real cpi

Heidi Bell @hydmeister ·

@KobeissiLetter gov hiring like crazy while everyone else is getting squeezed. shit

3ZEE @_3ZEE_ ·

@KobeissiLetter Trump fucked up and broke too many things with mass government firings. Now he'll hire most of them back and claim victory for a problem he directly created.

Kevin Jagiah @KevinJagiah ·

@KobeissiLetter They're doing everything to prop this stagflation party until this presidency is over it seems.

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techVector @PrasVectorTech ·

@KobeissiLetter Finally some good news for job seekers. Government jobs are stable and the benefits are solid. Hopefully this trend keeps going and helps more people get back on their feet.

Kevin Kirby @kirbykev1 ·

@KobeissiLetter So much for DOGE

The Rock @TheRock08587115 ·

@KobeissiLetter What happened to DOGE @elonmusk ?

₿randon @patriot1776b ·

@KobeissiLetter RIP DOGE

Kirk Bostrom @KirkBostrom ·

@KobeissiLetter DOGE?! Cut wasteful government spending? lol. Time for Trump to pump up Government Jobs prior to the critical Midterm elections in order to mask the growing unemployment in the private sector. You think I’m kidding? x.com/KirkBostrom/status/20873…

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RAM1500Invests @ram1500trades ·

@KobeissiLetter So that should help that’s bad jobs data posted earlier right?

HYR @HEnterpris613 ·

@KobeissiLetter Got to make those jobs numbers look inflated

Doug Brown @DougBro69499126 ·

@KobeissiLetter Who would want one , you now have to work 35yrs before you can retire or turn 62yrs of age ,they want pay you enough to live on , survive maybe but not live and the only real reason they need you is for your 401k investments which they'll use to prop up the markets,dam scammers x.com/DougBro69499126/status/2…

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Troogway @Troogway ·

@KobeissiLetter Need to offset job numbers…we’re fucked.

Jas Gill @jsgill1945 ·

@KobeissiLetter Here we go again, make government larger and further increase deficit spending! That is an insane strategy at current time!

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Zac Zook @realZacZook ·

@KobeissiLetter This is such bad journalism. It says openings. Not hires. Under Trump the federal government has decreased the amount of jobs. Do better.

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Rob 🇺🇸 @AmericaOnlyRS ·

@KobeissiLetter Probably mostly H1B jobs, Trumps breaking records renewing them.

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ThatOneGuy @How_Un4tunate ·

@KobeissiLetter Not soaring, playing catch up. They laid off so many and then realized they actually needed those people so now they’re trying to fill those same positions. Not counting ICE, they’re still at a net job loss.

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@KobeissiLetter Lmao from the same people who said Biden's job numbers were all government jobs