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@KobeissiLetter My market view ⬇️⬇️ Lower skew tells me investors are getting complacent—watch for a volatility snapback soon. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

Nobody buys insurance when the sun is out. Skew this flat means downside protection is basically on sale, and everyone’s paying up for lottery calls instead. Fine until it isn’t. Thin hedges mean any shock gets amplified, because there’s nothing to unwind into. Cheapest time to hedge is always the moment it feels dumbest.

@KobeissiLetter Feels like the market’s getting complacent again—usually right before it bites. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

@KobeissiLetter PUTS PUTS PUTs PUTS!!!!!!!!! BUY PROTECTION YOU IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/grok/share/6fc792d03d3…

@KobeissiLetter complacency is peaking right when everyone thinks they're being clever, so we're basically one bad headline away from discovering why those puts were cheap

@KobeissiLetter The market is getting cheaper to insure just as investors are feeling safer. That’s usually when protection gets interesting.

@KobeissiLetter Investor confidence is running hot. 📈

@KobeissiLetter Risk appetite is strong but crowded bullish positioning can flip fast

@KobeissiLetter Investors are getting reckless. That's troubling.

The market isn’t just becoming less fearful,it’s becoming aggressively bullish. Put protection is fading while demand for far OTM calls is surging. That’s a powerful risk-on signal, but also a warning: when positioning gets this euphoric, the next shock can hit harder. Fear is being replaced by FOMO.

@KobeissiLetter Investors dropping downside hedges right now feels a lot like taking off your seatbelt mid-flight because you haven't hit turbulence in 20 minutes.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/grok/share/04523c967a3…

@KobeissiLetter They don’t feel like hedging no more?

@KobeissiLetter Nobody hedging into September is the real story here. Protection's cheap while everyone's comfortable. Wouldn't be selling it.

@KobeissiLetter Market update x.com/cryptonect_ar/status/208…

@KobeissiLetter We're ready for the bullrun All signs point up. We'll see what the last half of the year holds.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/i/grok/share/2dc5d24dc3b…

@KobeissiLetter Hedge when you can, not when you have to.

@KobeissiLetter This Is what happens during tops.

@KobeissiLetter @JTheretohelp1 what could go wrong! No need to hedge, no downside insight

@KobeissiLetter Feels like the market’s gotten comfortable—too comfortable, maybe. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

@KobeissiLetter When investors stop paying as much for downside protection, it suggests fear is fading. But historically, low hedging can also mean complacency is building.

@KobeissiLetter Seems like people are feeling good about the market.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/IPOAnalysis_/status/2087…

@KobeissiLetter Risk appetite read seems right. Though I wonder how much of the skew compression is hedges coming off versus just calls getting bid, given you've got 3m call skew at a 12-month high in the same post. Put open interest would probably settle which one it is.

@KobeissiLetter x.com/IPOAnalysis_/status/2087…

@KobeissiLetter Interesting shift in sentiment. When investors stop paying up for downside protection, it can be a sign confidence is getting pretty high. Worth watching whether that confidence is justified.

@KobeissiLetter Dump it

@KobeissiLetter Investors aren't hedging because they think the Fed has their back. The real hedge isn't a put option. It's owning the compute that runs the economy. NVDA isn't a stock. It's insurance.

Most people treat skew like a fear index. The real signal is who’s left to sell protection-not price. In 2008 the same drop signaled exhausted counterparties, then a liquidity squeeze; today liquidity is the fragile thing. What changes if you read skew as a capacity, not sentiment?

@KobeissiLetter The timing is what strikes me: hedging at its lowest right before tomorrow's CPI, with September still a coin flip. What do you make of investors dropping protection right before a binary date?

@KobeissiLetter Complacency is creeping in. When hedges disappear, markets often remind investors why protection matters most.

@KobeissiLetter Extreme risk appetite or extreme complacency ? History shows that when the cost of downside protection hits absolute lows, the market is usually priced for perfection. The 3-month far-OTM call skew suggests everyone is chasing the tail-risk to the upside instead.

@KobeissiLetter Paging @nntaleb and Spitznagel.

@KobeissiLetter Skew this low? Investors are out here raw-dogging the market like the Fed’s their personal bodyguard. Risk appetite off the charts… until gravity remembers it exists. 😂📉

Worth pairing this with who's funding the AI buildout. Hyperscalers guided $720-745B of combined capex, increasingly with borrowed money - Oracle burned near $24B in free cash flow and got cut to one notch above junk getting there. Risk appetite peaks while the marginal buyer is levering up.

@KobeissiLetter investors are betting on upside, not protection. that's bullish, but complacency can get expensive

The SPX put/call ratio just hit its lowest level in nearly a decade, and skew went from the 90th percentile in March to the 36th percentile now. That's not just fewer hedges, that's outright euphoria pricing. History says when everyone's leaning the same direction, it doesn't take much to tip the boat.

@KobeissiLetter @grok what are the implications of this ?

@KobeissiLetter The moment everyone stops buying insurance is usually the moment they need it most. The Gorillas are chasing calls, not hedging. The Jungle rarely rings a bell before it shifts!!!

@KobeissiLetter Its crazy how quickly fear disappears once prices keep going up long enough

This is a clear shift in the market's risk distribution. Investors are paying less for downside protection while demand for upside convexity is rising. In other words, positioning is increasingly built around the assumption that the next major move is higher. That matters for $SPX because low hedging can amplify the rally while volatility remains suppressed — but it also leaves portfolios more exposed to a macro shock. With $UST yields, inflation and central-bank expectations still capable of moving sharply, the complacency itself is becoming part of the risk.

@KobeissiLetter Investors cancel their insurance policies and collect lottery tickets (very long-term and low-time buying options) in the market with this money. The option market is currently moving with a FOMO rather than a rational growth. x.com/liqwhale/status/20872536…

@KobeissiLetter Worth noting the timing. Protection is getting cheaper the day before a CPI print. July inflation lands tomorrow at 8:30 am.

@KobeissiLetter Less demand for downside protection can mean greater complacency. Low hedging costs do not eliminate risk, they can make the market more vulnerable when positioning shifts.

@KobeissiLetter Ditching insurance during a market rally is pure overconfidence. Bad sign

@KobeissiLetter Cheap puts and expensive calls are the same crowd making the same bet twice. Last time this skew move followed a selloff that already happened. This time nobody's tested it yet.

@KobeissiLetter The market isn’t just bullish — investors are increasingly paying less for protection against being wrong. That’s when risk management matters most. Strong momentum can keep running, but falling demand for downside protection is also a sign that complacency is building.

@KobeissiLetter Insurance is cheapest right before everyone remembers why they buy it.