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@amitisinvesting last thing we need is an anthropic ipo

@amitisinvesting That would be massive for Google.. aren’t they an early investor?

@amitisinvesting Real question is the float unlocking like spcx….

@amitisinvesting I’d wait for the S1 before touching that valuation—$1.5T needs serious margin proof. x.com/i/grok/share/df177d526d5…

@amitisinvesting Ty for the info amit, will happily short it with size after the bloated launch 🌚

@amitisinvesting Only a fool buys an IPO! Gotta wait at least a couple months after going public before buying... $SPCX perfect example

@amitisinvesting The S1 better show margin discipline, or that $1.5T ask gets a hard no from me. x.com/i/grok/share/149a77f42be…

@amitisinvesting A $1.5T IPO would be a 55% jump from its $965B private valuation and roughly 21x ARR. The market would be pricing years of near-perfect execution upfront.

@amitisinvesting Don’t trust the management, so that’s an automatic deal breaker for me.

@amitisinvesting x.com/imustbreaku1/status/2087…

@amitisinvesting Not really, may be as it gets sold off

@amitisinvesting Cheaper than $SPCX

@amitisinvesting The run up to this IPO is gonna be crazy for the AI stocks

@amitisinvesting It’s like OpenAI, it’s another AI company that’s juiced to the max by Street investors and the government on the bet they may reach AGI and be responsible for groundbreaking efficiency in every industry. Unlike Google and Amazon, they have no other source of revenue if they fail.

@amitisinvesting Need to read the S1 first personally! $1.5T is pretty ambitious but they'll raise fresh capital so easily it's not even funny!

@amitisinvesting Thanks for sharing of the Antropic IPO. I have to think about it carefully.. Of course I would like to buy them but not for any price

@amitisinvesting $1.5T on ipo assumes the growth curve holds without any deceleration, that’s a big assumption for any ai lab given how fast the competitive landscape shift

@amitisinvesting Im only gonna buy it for a trade. I believe it'll dump like $SPCX did.

@amitisinvesting You would be absolutely stupid to not buy end of the IPO of anthropic. It’s the best language model on the Earth.

@amitisinvesting I'll definitely buy some at 1.5t

@amitisinvesting Why do I feel like OpenAI will beat them to the punch

@amitisinvesting Easy pass...wont be putting even a single dollar personally. Same for OAI. These should have gone public like 2 years ago. No point getting in now.

@amitisinvesting Don’t know why burry is going so hard trying to short chips and ontology when he could’ve just waited for the model companies to go public

@amitisinvesting 3rd day is the buy target. Can’t wait for databricks.

@amitisinvesting Fuck no. This worths zero

@amitisinvesting They’re on track to clear $100B ARR and are probably only a few months away from hitting that, given we’re still in August. What a fucking juggernaut.

@amitisinvesting It's not for me. Maybe much lower. No need to rush to buy an IPO. x.com/Starbuccaneers/status/20…

@amitisinvesting Dario is not in this for money, I will support the guy if his stock dips 50% 😂

@amitisinvesting I was considering. But seeing how other models can almost produce the same results as Claude but cheaper gives me pause.

@amitisinvesting Absolutely will NOT buy the IPO. Just go look at how IPOs historically perform out of the gate.

@amitisinvesting Shorting it to zero.

@amitisinvesting There’s been a lot of doom around the fromntier model companies - If the Anthropic numbers are better than people expect, it could drive the next leg higher. 👀

@amitisinvesting x.com/i/grok/share/29a44efb5b6…

@amitisinvesting A commodity

@amitisinvesting Honestly, the $1.5T ask feels like they’re pricing in perfection, but if the S1 shows real margin expansion, I’d be tempted at anything under $1.2T. My current stance on the market rhythm this afternoon → sessionlevels.com/t/tier1-v1-2…

@amitisinvesting 1T feels reasonable

@amitisinvesting Anthropic is coming for everybody dude, this is not spcx is a giant in the making

@amitisinvesting $1.5T implies 21.4x ARR on $70B. Baillie Gifford valued Anthropic at 20x year-end forecast ARR on July 8. Anthropic signed a $10B computing deal with Volta Infra on August 4, measures contracted capacity appetite, not unit economics.

@amitisinvesting The $1.5T ask feels rich, but if the S1 shows they can actually convert that ARR into cash flow, the market might just pay it. My current stance on the market rhythm this afternoon → sessionlevels.com/t/tier1-v1-2…

@amitisinvesting This can be bullish for the broader AI trade if they prove ROI! I guess they would not go public if they cannot…

@amitisinvesting Amit making fun of the nvidia investors.\nPronunciation has me laughing 😃

the $70b arr isn't confirmed. anthropic hasn't disclosed anything past the $47b from the may series h, that $70b floating around is just trackers guessing off the growth curve. matters a lot here since the multiple you're pricing depends entirely on which number's real. the s1 is the first time we actually find out instead of guessing

@amitisinvesting I’d rather wait for kimi

@amitisinvesting Oooohheeeelllnoooo

@amitisinvesting I think the reminder is needed: NEVER BUY AN IPO thank me later.

@amitisinvesting Will be buying puts as soon as they are available 😂

@amitisinvesting They will ease on this IPO valuation. My estimate is a solid $1.3T

@amitisinvesting No point in investing with that valuation

@amitisinvesting Never buy at IPO they say

@amitisinvesting if google or aws or meta can provide the same services as anthropic with open weight - whats their edge?