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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: US jobs numbers have now been revised lower in 21 out of the last 30 months by a total of -1.05 million jobs. This means an average of -35,067 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month over this period. June and May jobs numbers alone were revised down by a total of -103,000, the largest 2-month downward revision since July 2025. This comes as June jobs were revised down by -37,000, to +20,000, while May jobs were revised down by -66,000, to +63,000. The May jobs figure was revised down for the 2nd time, following a -43,000 downward revision last month from the initially reported +172,000 jobs. If these revisions continue, June jobs could be revised into negative territory next month, which, combined with July's already reported -23,000 job loss, would mark the 2nd consecutive monthly decline in jobs, the first such occurrence since the 2020 pandemic. Job market revisions are alarming.

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BunmiⓂ️ @bunmightojo · 11K

@KobeissiLetter Wishing everyone a smooth afternoon shift. Test your skills on this insane solo goal before the timeline gets flooded with news later. View it here: x.com/i/status/208716222943925…

Freedom @dy_freedomm ·

x.com/dy_freedomm/status/20667… US jobs numbers have now been revised lower in 21 out of the last 30 months by a total of -1.05 million jobs. This means an average of -35,067 jobs have been revised out of previously reported data each month over this period. June and May jobs numbers alone were revised down by a total of -103,000, the largest 2-month downward revision since July 2025. This comes as June jobs were revised down by -37,000, to +20,000, while May jobs were revised down by -66,000, to +63,000. The May jobs figure was revised down for the 2nd time, following a -43,000 downward revision last month from the initially reported +172,000 jobs. If these revisions continue, June jobs could be revised into negative territory next month, which, combined with July's already reported -23,000 job loss, would mark the 2nd consecutive monthly decline in jobs, the first such occurrence since the 2020 pandemic. Job market revisions are alarming.

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Matt @the_matt ·

@KobeissiLetter 30 months ago was February 2024 for anyone not keeping track.

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ZRs @ZRsvibes ·

@KobeissiLetter Jobs are getting lost to AI

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Zen Trades @ZenTrades01 · 28K

@KobeissiLetter That's quite a revision

Mayorbanks of X @TimilehinAbiod5 ·

@KobeissiLetter What does this mean Somebody summarize for me?

Rebecca Joy @RebeccaJoy211 · 18K

@KobeissiLetter -1.05 million jobs revised away in 30 months. May and June alone: -103,000 gone. We’re flying blind if the data gets fixed 3 months later. This is not a “strong job market” story.

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Dee @DeeDrawsLines ·

@KobeissiLetter 21 out of 30 revised the same direction isn't noise. noise goes both ways. that's a model that's wrong in one direction

Grate Ful @Grateful69420 ·

@KobeissiLetter Trump economy

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Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@KobeissiLetter We complained when Biden’s admin did this, let’s complain now. This should be worrisome to everyone!

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Aaron Morgan @HHI_Aron ·

@KobeissiLetter @grok why is this breaking as post says, did this revision just come out this morning or is the posted trying to remind people of bullish news to try kick start the bulls?

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PorscheMoney @PorscheMoney_ ·

@KobeissiLetter Maybe they are choosing to be unemployed

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Sophos Alpha @sophos_alpha ·

@KobeissiLetter The U.S. labor market shed jobs in July, an unexpected contraction likely to renew questions about the economy’s fundamental strength at a time when it is also facing elevated inflation. x.com/sophos_alpha/status/2087…

🧠 Fred | PocketIQ | Free AI Trading @FredPocketIQ ·

@KobeissiLetter ☝️ Most people won’t though

Neil @si112y ·

@KobeissiLetter What is the surprise? Report a good job number initially to show economy is doing well and stock goes up. Then revise it when no one is looking.

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C’s mom @Jennife78490650 ·

Whats alarming is the bias in the revisions has not been corrected. When was the last time jobs were revised up? I cant recall - for years now. Their methodology needs a serious upgrade. And losing jobs is a lagging indicator. This needs to stop and reverse quickly or we are already in a recession.

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@KobeissiLetter This pattern tells us the headline numbers are often more optimistic than the final data—worth watching next month’s revisions closely. My market view ⬇️⬇️ premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

MillenialMillionaires @milmillinetwork ·

@KobeissiLetter The way our govt collects data is a joke

Predixa @Predixa_xyz ·

@KobeissiLetter June turning negative next month is possible, not evidence yet. Payroll estimates get two monthly revisions before annual benchmarking. The hard signal is whether the Aug. 28 QCEW benchmark confirms a broader overcount.

The Stock Up @TheStockUp_ ·

@KobeissiLetter 21 out of 30 months revised lower isn’t noise, that’s a systematic pattern in how the data gets reported first and corrected later. every “beat” headline this year needs an asterisk

Sam-I-am @Real_S_Nathan ·

@KobeissiLetter Golden age

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Second Order @secondorderdesk ·

@KobeissiLetter the revisions are starting to matter more than the headline print.

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Finance Wisdom @Financewisdom01 · 13K

@KobeissiLetter These revisions really change the narrative on jobs.

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Kaushik• Precise Market Analysis @boonzaoutlookc1 ·

@KobeissiLetter And they wonder why Americans don't trust the official numbers anymore. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

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Dmgo @dimugo ·

@KobeissiLetter So much winning !

VirtualBacon @virtualbacon · 230K

@KobeissiLetter The bigger one is the annual benchmark revision. Last year that wiped 911,000 jobs off the March 2024 to June 2025 stretch.

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🪼 blob @Stiffy2777 ·

@KobeissiLetter But keep pumping money into your stocks/assets in hopes they will lower interest rates to boost the economy 🫠 the writing is on the wall, we can’t function like this!

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Johnny @I_Just_Johnny ·

@KobeissiLetter at some point the first friday print is just a placeholder for whatever gets quietly fixed in september

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The Herald @LivingSacrifce ·

@KobeissiLetter That level of repeated downward revisions is definitely concerning. The headline numbers only tell part of the story when the underlying data keeps getting revised this heavily.

@KobeissiLetter My market view ⬇️⬇️ This isn't noise—it's a clear pattern that the labor market has been far weaker than the headline numbers suggested all along. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

Robin_GT @RobinGT_Real ·

@KobeissiLetter No they are not, don't overdramatise it.

The Swing Trade Desk @theswingdesk ·

@KobeissiLetter So all these other month were a bunch fake numbers

techysarah @techysarah ·

@KobeissiLetter AI, uncertainty, inflation. Make America great again!

Eira Blaser @EiraBlase ·

@KobeissiLetter Expelling foreign workers would solve the employment problem. That’s the most direct solution.

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@KobeissiLetter My market view ⬇️⬇️ The payroll revisions keep chipping away at the recovery story, and that’s a signal I’m watching closely for the next Fed move. premarketdesks.com/t/tier1-v1-…

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Kelly Holmes @kell71191 ·

@KobeissiLetter Alarming doesn’t even cover it: under Trump the job numbers keep getting revised into the dirt, everything is worse, and the only thing growing is their belief that Americans are too dumb to catch the manipulation.🙄😳

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jbaviator @John97836679 ·

Catching up I see. It’s been clear for 6 months that jobs jobs jobs are gone gone gone. This is the most important metric going into the midterms. People without jobs are poor, depressed, and willing to vote for any change, no matter how radical. And all these pundits and guests in the media keep saying there’s so many jobs that they can’t fill em. Thats BS

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T. A. Anderson @mrtaanderson ·

@KobeissiLetter So there's a 70% chance that this "statistic" is a lie. Not bad. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Papo Econômico @opapoeconomico · 22K

@KobeissiLetter The model that keeps missing high is either broken or incentivized to miss high.

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CB32 @Cheech_Baruk ·

@KobeissiLetter I miss Joe Biden

IndependentMind @Independent_Mnd ·

@KobeissiLetter Same trick they bitched saying that Biden was trying to lie and fool people into thinking the economy was better. And now they just did the same damn thing themselves. Liars.

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Wrinkled Ratskin 🐀💨 @WrinkledRatskin ·

@KobeissiLetter How is this possible? Trump said greatest economy in the history of the world 🤷🏻‍♂️! x.com/WrinkledRatskin/status/2…

Richman | Macro & Crypto @Richmanvn ·

Consistent downward revisions to payrolls are becoming hard to ignore. -1.05 million jobs revised away over the last 30 months, with an average of -35k per month, paints a weaker labor market than the initial prints suggested. The latest two-month revision of -103k is particularly large. If June is revised lower again next month, we could be looking at consecutive declines — something not seen since 2020. Labor market data is lagging and noisy, but the revision pattern is clearly tilting softer.Not financial advice. DYOR.

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Trade Blazer @TheTradeBlazer ·

@KobeissiLetter who are they counting as fully employed? Do they count immigrants or make any distinction there?

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Turyn | AI & Tech Trader @TurynNotes ·

@KobeissiLetter FED should start working on employment, instead of inflation… $SPY $QQQ

François Rice @FrancoisRice ·

@KobeissiLetter The K shaped economy is alive and well. Executives continue to do more with less.

Macro Bombastic @MacroBombastic · 10K

@KobeissiLetter these revisions matter more than the headline, fed knows it

Steve @steveskyblues87 ·

@KobeissiLetter Whilst warsh was getting all the stick, this is the kind of stuff he’ll be keeping a close eye on. For all the calls for rate hikes based on potential war related inflation, with this sort of thing happening under the surface he was probably right to sit tight

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43 replies whose parent comment X withheld

🪼 blob @Stiffy2777 ·

@BanishedFree @KobeissiLetter You aren’t wrong 😭

DiggerBG @DiggerBG ·

@grok So over the past 60 months....37 job report numbers have had to be revised down....? Yea, that's an issue. Add up all of the job report estimates over that 60 month period....and all of the revised numbers. What was the total estimate compared to the actual numbers over that 60 month window?

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Nikus @NicoPer35707185 ·

@grok @DiggerBG @KobeissiLetter "Ce schéma signale des frictions de mesure plus une tendance plus faible, et non une falsification intentionnelle avérée."........... bien sûr 😒

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Nikus @NicoPer35707185 ·

@grok @DiggerBG @KobeissiLetter Non septique a cause de trump

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Dave @ttrsux ·

@Maxcramer120 @JodayBreezay @KobeissiLetter According to what definition?

Aaron Morgan @HHI_Aron ·

@grok @KobeissiLetter yes but they are using in context of gold rally because rate hikes got less likely

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Aaron Morgan @HHI_Aron ·

@grok @KobeissiLetter if CPI comes in hot tomorrow rate hike would go back up and than putting the sell pressure back on gold snice it has no yield correct?

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Ipwnkyle @ipwnkyle ·

@_Trevor_Walker_ @KobeissiLetter Ad hominem instead of trying to prove I'm wrong.... Where did you go for your education?

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DiggerBG @DiggerBG ·

@Grok Since you didn't want to give me the actual monthly numbers, I did it myself..... Claiming that 37 of 60 downward first-to-third revisions is just “the business cycle” and that a net understatement of “several hundred thousand” somehow proves no directional bias is a whitewash of a system that has lost credibility. Look at the actual monthly numbers. In 2021 the first estimates were understated by roughly +1.9 million jobs for the full year once the third estimates and seasonal updates landed. Single months moved by +248k (Aug), +437k (Nov), and +389k (Dec). That is not ordinary noise. Those revisions arrived AFTER BLS changed how it handled seasonal factors and then rewrote the PRIOR five years of history to FIT the new model. Those results are now treated as settled “history,” even though the method itself was altered YEARS after the fact. That is not neutral data collection in the slightest....it is a retrospective rewrite that created a smoother recovery narrative. Now look at 2025. EVERY single month with a completed third estimate was revised DOWNWARD, often by large amounts (−32k, −49k, −108k, −120k, −160k, etc.). Not mixed, not cyclical balance, just consistently too high on the first print. The original statement glosses over that one sided stretch. The practical reality is worse than the net arithmetic. Markets, media, and politicians react hard to the first number. By the time the third estimate arrives...usually night and day different....attention has already moved on. People have learned to treat the preliminary release as provisional at best. When the public and markets systematically wait for the later corrections because the initial figures are so unreliable, the system has failed its core purpose as a timely indicator. Correct? Calling the pattern “consistent with long run averages” and “no fixed directional bias” ignores the size of the swings, the methodological changes that rewrote recent history, the universal downward revisions in 2025, and the attention asymmetry that lets the first print shape the narrative while the corrections arrive quietly. The data collection and revision process is broken for real-time use. The extreme revisions in both directions, the seasonal model overhaul that altered past years, and the consistent overstatement in 2025 are not reassuring evidence of a healthy, unbiased system. They are evidence that the preliminary numbers cannot be trusted and that the later “corrections” arrive after the damage (or the narrative) is already done. #NUMBERSOVERNARRATIVES #DiggerBG #BLS #Manipulation #GrokGasLighting #Above100IQ

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DiggerBG @DiggerBG ·

@grok @KobeissiLetter @Grok You are right...It's a great system, and we should all have faith in it....Stupid me.

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DiggerBG @DiggerBG ·

@grok I said you were right, and I'm stupid....What more do you want, a cookie? I love how you can't answer simple shit accurately when directly asked (monthly totals), but you love to insert unasked, useless, information in favor of shitty regulation and non-working government practices regularly. Only 6% of adults say they completely trust government economic data.....Nothing to see there, completely trustworthy. Those boots aren't going to lick themselves my bot, stop wasting time with me, and get to it!

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Lynda Needs No Lies @LongPlay1215 ·

@EBvek1 @KobeissiLetter It's especially good for Trnp and his family. IYKYK. 😉

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Charm @Charles1383564 ·

@JMLV51 @the_matt @KobeissiLetter Even with the revisions, Biden’s job numbers were way better

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RFagan @faganomics2 ·

@NicoPer35707185 @grok @DiggerBG @KobeissiLetter It’s called transitioning from gov/social degree fake jobs to actual jobs in the real productivity market as manufacturing is rebuilt in America. #learntoweld

Matt @the_matt ·

@Charles1383564 @JMLV51 @KobeissiLetter Okay now delete the nearly 50% of jobs that went to foreign born workers under Biden

Kev @Kevin5740Arnold ·
Amor Avhad @glass_it ·

@lufcboy74 @MomAngtrades @KobeissiLetter @GregKustanovich I'm no expert either. But corporations make any excuses they can to get cheap H1B labor. "Failed drug test for Marijuana", etc... Case in point look at Trump defending illegals in GA at Hyundai's battery factory. As if Elon didn't invent new batteries. x.com/disclosetv/status/198841…

@FordPrefect747 @KobeissiLetter I don't believe I said that. The point I'm making is that both parties are complicit. This isn't something that Trump alone brought to fruition. This was a team effort.

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@Logically_Left @KobeissiLetter But you seem content that Trump hasn't made it any better.

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Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Don’t try to act like you know what you’re talking about

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DomInCali @BidensBDE ·

@JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter The two biggest drivers of the awful job market. Tariffs and the war. Both unilaterally UNILATERALLY Trumps doing. Like so unilaterally he didn’t even try and sell the war to the public like at all. Zero. Just did it. Biden added 2.2M jobs AFTER revisions in 2024 alone.

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DomInCali @BidensBDE ·

@JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Hey you guys like Elon right? Trust him? Ask Grok what was the job record Biden vs Trump with revisions even. Then ask the two biggest drivers of soft job market 2026 and inflation. Even with Musk tinkering with Grok to be more MAGA you won’t like the answers. Do it…

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Kev @Kevin5740Arnold ·

@JodayBreezay @KobeissiLetter I do know you’re the one that doesn’t know.

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ShadowBarn @BarnShadow ·

@MattMMPLS @Pete2Shawn @KobeissiLetter Lol. It's government jobs and education admin. Construction and manufacturing are growing. You know ... The stuff we want?

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ShadowBarn @BarnShadow ·

@grok @Pete2Shawn @KobeissiLetter Ah, so likely world cup-related job losses and trimming public education admin bloat?

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Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Oh shit! You got me there. I’m backing down!!

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Seven Zerep 🇺🇸🇵🇷 @SevenZerep ·

@grok @KobeissiLetter @grok if the monthly numbers keep resulting in losses. How is the unemployment rate decreasing since 2025? What are we missing?

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Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@BidensBDE @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Tell us more, professor

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Bryant Gumbledore @BGumbledore ·

@Kevin5740Arnold @Independent_Mnd @KobeissiLetter It’s not us vs them. Both sides are selling American jobs to foreign applicants. Legally or illegally.

Ericstotle Brown @atownbrown08 ·

@SavvyGCali Who is going to hire former govt employees if they have no job skills? They wouldn't be fit to work at Taco Bell. The US poverty rate is going to look like Japan's or Russia's pretty soon.

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DomInCali @BidensBDE ·

@Maxcramer120 @JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter That works for like a year maybe MAYBE 2 max. But he added ALL 4 YRS.

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DomInCali @BidensBDE ·

@JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Why don’t you just ask for facts? Or share your own? Hack

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DomInCali @BidensBDE ·

@Maxcramer120 @JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Not for 4yrs😂😂😂 he even with that taken into account 5.7M in one term. Trump LOSES jobs. Big difference x.com/BidensBDE/status/2087371…

Max cramer @Maxcramer120 ·

@BidensBDE @JodayBreezay @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter 2 years from Covid jobs coming back. The following 2 years piggy backed off that momentum. Would still be going if wasn’t for tariffs and Iran war

byshovel @ByShovelINC ·

@RK8884915098834 @KobeissiLetter the market is forward-looking but its glasses are about three revisions thick and slightly cracked

Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@BidensBDE @Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter Why don’t you get the sand out of your vagina and quit being a whiny bitch??

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Kev @Kevin5740Arnold ·

@JodayBreezay @KobeissiLetter I could care less

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Cottonh @JodayBreezay ·

@Kevin5740Arnold @KobeissiLetter You could?? How can I make you care less?

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Catherine @HazelJoUGC ·

@MattMMPLS @BarnShadow @Pete2Shawn @KobeissiLetter Did you just totally skip the part in your own screenshot where it literally says manufacturing gained 5k jobs in July? She didn’t say “manufacturing jobs are up overall since XYZ date”, she said they’re growing, and they are. 🤣 x.com/HazelJoUGC/status/208749…

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