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@KobeissiLetter

US housing affordability is deteriorating: The average 30Y fixed mortgage rate rose +3 basis points last week, to 6.69%, the highest since July 2025. This marks the 5th consecutive weekly increase, with rates up +71 basis points since the Iran War began in late-February. This comes as the 10Y Treasury yield, which mortgage lenders use to price 30Y loans, has surged +70 basis points over the same period, driven by inflation concerns. On a $500,000 mortgage, this increase translates to more than +$200 in additional monthly principal and interest payments compared to late February, when rates briefly fell below 6% for the first time since 2022. The 30Y fixed mortgage rate could rise to 7% for the first time since January 2025 before year-end if current inflationary pressures persist. The US housing affordability crisis is worsening.

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Zerø @ZeroSumLimbo ·

@KobeissiLetter This isn’t anything new

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mac @mac78196523 ·

@KobeissiLetter How? Thot building was on high & prices dropping?

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Emre Yurttas @emrey35 ·

@KobeissiLetter And yet no of our elected officials are focused on this! Vote for people who will actually address these issues!

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Bruce Poole @TargetedWealth ·

Another casualty of persistent inflation and runaway deficit spending. When the 10-year Treasury yield is driven higher by structural debt and geopolitical shocks, everyday Americans bear the brunt through crushing borrowing costs. Affordability isn't just declining—it's being engineered out of reach by central bank policy and fiscal recklessness.

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🧠 Fred | PocketIQ | Free AI Trading @FredPocketIQ ·

@KobeissiLetter ⤴️ Pay attention right here

CanadaFirst @CanadianFir ·

@KobeissiLetter Hey but CEOs are doing well; Shell is doing amazing; tech bros are turning trillionaires Are Americans tired of winning yet?

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The Kobeissi Letter&Trading Advisor @chicomalo1304 ·

@KobeissiLetter And it’s not just rates—home prices keep climbing, squeezing buyers even harder. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

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Michael Gunther @MGuntherCE ·

@KobeissiLetter It’s not just mortgage payments: we’re seeing this show up in home & garden retail spend as well. Our data suggests it’s costing more to furnish and repair homes. x.com/MGuntherCE/status/208698…

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Macro Bombastic @MacroBombastic · 10K

@KobeissiLetter higher for longer means housing stays a rich man's game

Wealth Builder @Portfolio_Intel ·

@KobeissiLetter Higher mortgage rates strain housing and lock up cash. Have to adapt by rotating into fixed income and assets built to withstand high rates

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Wizard of Alt @Wizard_Of_Alt ·

@KobeissiLetter 200 bucks a month extra on a 500k loan and the fed's still easing, that's the awkward part of this cycle

Oleg Shulga @olegshulga ·

@KobeissiLetter At 6.69%, the monthly payment kills demand before the house price does. I sell construction, and buyers do not live inside price-per-square-meter charts. They live inside cash flow. Financing is now part of the product.

Here for the Fin @hereforthefin ·

@KobeissiLetter This is cherry-picking one variable. Mortgage rates have risen, but NAR’s Housing Affordability Index has been improving: home prices have largely moved sideways while household incomes have continued rising. It’s easier to buy now than last year.

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Boudreauxs Ghost @BoudreauxsGhost ·

@KobeissiLetter Rates have been too low for too long. I know people don’t want to hear that but it is one of the reasons things cost so much right now. If the government really wants to help us they can always cut the income tax and reduce government spending. x.com/BoudreauxsGhost/status/2…

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DrDoom @DrDoomsDad ·

@KobeissiLetter “The housing affordability crisis is worsening [for people who don’t have a material portion of assets in the stock market]”

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MAZI-FX❤️🖤 @Mazifx_ · 11K

@KobeissiLetter That $200 extra a month makes a big difference, shows how the war is hitting people's pockets directly.

Capital Atlas @CashToWealth ·

@KobeissiLetter Nothing says affordable housing like pricing it off geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

Owl Prints @ItsOwlPrints · 35K

@KobeissiLetter Housing affordability is getting squeezed from both sides. Higher mortgage rates + stubborn inflation = fewer buyers able to afford the same home.

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Ajbary 🇺🇸 @ajbary1 ·

@KobeissiLetter Not many people can afford 500k mortgages with 5% interest. The majority were already priced out.

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Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ ·

@KobeissiLetter The extra $200 monthly applies only to new originations, leaving most fixed-rate households untouched until sales or refinancings occur.

Jialiang Liang @JialiangLiang ·
POD Creator @plaidviolence ·

@KobeissiLetter Home prices are still too expensive for the average person.

Huskār @MrUsmania ·

@KobeissiLetter Housing affordability is getting squeezed from both sides.

X Farmer @ojj_joj ·

@KobeissiLetter Housing affordability is getting squeezed from both sides — higher mortgage rates and persistent inflation. 🏠📈 If rates push toward 7%, buying a home could become even more difficult for millions of Americans.

ChickyDumpling @EloiseHenrietta ·

@KobeissiLetter Mortgage rates were about 18.75% in 1981. When they finally came down to just over 13% in 1983, people started buying again. Fun times!

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John Matrix @GsxrEconomics ·

This isn’t an emergency right now. The good thing is that a number of people have low 30-year mortgages. I don’t know how many have floating-rate mortgages from 2022-2025, though. Even so, rates have decreased 100 bps from the highs. This is a slow bleed on home prices that will meet wage increases, and then home prices will start to increase at an increasing rate.

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CryptoNinjas @crypto_ninjas · 59K

@KobeissiLetter The rapid climb in just a few weeks is honestly terrifying for anyone looking to buy.

Jeff McAllister @JeffMcAlliste16 ·

@KobeissiLetter It's time to build sub $300k houses so people can afford the principle, interest, and taxes.

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beezle @0xbeezle ·

@KobeissiLetter I was told affordability is a made up word

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DeFiQube @DeFiQube ·

@KobeissiLetter Another week, another rate tick higher. Feels like the housing market is stuck in the same loop since spring.

Kali-Fraud-ia @BadBoyPepper1 ·

@KobeissiLetter Awesome. Too bad for snowflake. Go back to mommas basement.

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QSG Research @QSG_Research ·

@KobeissiLetter How do you see this flowing through to transaction volumes versus home prices?

Martin Jones @the_hulster ·

@KobeissiLetter So much winning

Kane @dngcho186778 ·

This tracks with the wage side of the problem too. Average renter wage is still only $24.84/hr while a modest 2-bedroom needs $34.73/hr. Higher mortgage rates just push ownership even further out of reach. The gap isn’t only about rates — it’s that paychecks haven’t kept up for years. Put some international numbers next to it here: x.com/dngcho186778/status/2086…

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Tison alpha news @MarketAlphaHQ ·

@KobeissiLetter Higher rates hit affordability hard, but wage growth remains stagnant. Real purchasing power is the actual crisis here.

Ricci Research @ricci_nov ·

@KobeissiLetter The Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates go up. Monetary policy has entered its “terms and conditions apply” era. 😂

BBX @bbx_official · 32K

@KobeissiLetter Housing is now a duration and income story, not just a price story. When mortgage rates stay high while home values remain sticky, transaction volume absorbs the adjustment first, weakening mobility before prices reset.

Prime_Trader @ahmed_rizw55780 ·

@KobeissiLetter Well spotted 🔥

web3 lawyer 首席大律师 @Web3Counsels ·

@KobeissiLetter Americans are focused on the $200/month. The real move is the 10Y repricing pulling dollar liquidity out of EM. Rand and RMB already wobbling. If 7% 30Y prints, EM debt rolls and BTC gets squeezed between safe-haven bid and risk-off. Which breaks first?

King Arthi @K1ngArthi ·

@KobeissiLetter 6.69% isn't historically extreme on its own. What's new is home prices never corrected when rates rose off 2021 lows. Buyers are now financing near-peak prices AND near-2008 rates at the same time — that combo is what broke affordability, not the rate alone.

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OASIS @O4SI5 ·

Housing affordability is being squeezed from both sides. Higher Treasury yields are pushing mortgage rates back toward 7%, while home prices remain too elevated for financing costs like this. Even small rate increases materially change monthly payments when the loan balance is large. The bigger risk is a frozen market rather than an immediate crash. Buyers lose purchasing power, existing owners stay locked into older low rate mortgages, inventory remains constrained and transaction volume weakens. Housing does not need prices to collapse for the economy to feel the damage. Expensive credit alone can keep the market dysfunctional for a long time.

Braking news @AAfridi12368824 ·

@KobeissiLetter 🚨🚨🚨

Tech News @tech_summaries ·

@KobeissiLetter 6.69% is the headline, but the inventory squeeze is the real story. Listings are below year-ago levels and the supply constraint is making this affordability gap permanent. Everyone is waiting for rates to drop, but the supply side just isn't moving.

AlphaFlowX @AlphaFlowX ·

@KobeissiLetter Khả năng sẽ có một đợt giảm lãi suất lớn trên diện rộng.

Mikhail Drozdov @casinokrisa · 11K

@KobeissiLetter Five straight weekly increases leave buyers with less room to absorb already high home prices.

FRDM @FRDMCrypto ·

@KobeissiLetter 6.69 percent is a long way from what most people locked in a few years ago. That gap is the quiet story of this whole cycle.

The Curious Index @thecuriousindex ·

High mortgage rates don't just hit prospective homebuyers they squeeze renters, too. As rising borrowing costs price millions of families out of buying, they are forced to stay in the rental market, driving up overall rental demand. This gives landlords leverage to keep rents elevated, locking everyday households into a cycle where high monthly rent eats away at the very savings they need for a future down payment.

ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA · 68K

@KobeissiLetter High rates hurt, but home prices were already unaffordable for most people long before this! 😎