Skip to content
Archive

Post

Back to @KobeissiLetter

T KobeissiLetter
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM, reported a +45% YoY increase in sales in July, to $14.5 billion, driven by explosive demand for AI chips. $TSM, the primary chip manufacturer used by companies such as Nvidia, $NVDA, and Apple, $AAPL, generated $89.1 billion in revenue in the first 7 months of the year, up +37% YoY. The chipmaker also raised its 2026 CapEx outlook to a record $60-64 billion range and expects full-year sales to grow slightly above +40% YoY. For the current quarter, the company is estimated to deliver +47% YoY sales growth. Meanwhile, $TSM shares listed in Taiwan are up +50% year-to-date, more than double the +20% gain in $NVDA. Demand for AI chips shows no signs of slowing.

not downloaded

· 240K Views

224 Reposts 23 Quotes 2.2K Likes 146 Bookmarks
replies reposts likes
80 replies collected of 108 X reports
BunmiⓂ️ @bunmightojo · 11K

@KobeissiLetter Pause your scrolling for a minute and check out this highly interesting discussion on hydration posture. See how sitting down vs standing up impacts your nervous system and digestion baseline: x.com/i/status/208679938836229…

1
EagleX 🦅 @crypto2themon ·
1 1
Marc ₿ @marc02200 ·

@KobeissiLetter That’s actually wild. How long will AI keep on pumping though?

1
🧠 Fred | PocketIQ | Free AI Trading @FredPocketIQ ·

@KobeissiLetter 🔼 This is the hidden move

Miss Fitzgerald @missFITZGERALD4 ·

@KobeissiLetter Great post! 👏 Your stock analysis and selection skills are incredible. You and @BrianReid11BR are the only ones I follow for daily stock research and ideas 🚀

1
Corgano @StockMarketBoss ·

@KobeissiLetter Don't think AI is a bubble ... yet

2
Mike Warner | Echelon Reports @_Mike_Warner ·

@KobeissiLetter AI chip demand is real. The secondary effects are showing up in the components that actually have to ship. RAM availability and pricing have already tightened. The companies that planned around last year’s cost structure are the ones feeling it first.

2
Mads @Spah0707 ·

@KobeissiLetter CapEX increases are becoming the main factor to look at when looking at AI and semiconductors

2
₿lade Runner @BRunner2040 ·

@KobeissiLetter Get ready for November everyone x.com/BRunner2040/status/20868…

2
THE DOLLARDRAGON @Dollardragon02 ·

@KobeissiLetter AI demand is clearly showing up in the numbers. TSM’s growth and massive CapEx plans suggest the chip boom still has plenty of momentum. 📈

@KobeissiLetter The real question is how much longer TSMC can keep this pace with capacity sold out through next year. x.com/i/grok/share/7dbc270a81b…

2
Dr. Ammar @ammar_jatoi ·

@KobeissiLetter Wow that's huge

1
C H A $ E 💰 ฿ A N D Z @6sidebandz ·

@KobeissiLetter GOP ON THEIR CACA DEL TORO THATS IT THATS ALL 🕺🏿🖨️ x.com/6sidebandz/status/208680…

1
Anselemcrizy @anselemcrizyx ·

@KobeissiLetter The AI boom is becoming an infrastructure story, not just a software story. TSM’s numbers make that pretty clear.

Dorian Vossmere @JNsports ·

@KobeissiLetter The market has taught me to filter out noise and focus on people who actually add value. You and @RexWiggins12 are two of those voices.

3
InsomniaLK @InsomniaLK ·

@KobeissiLetter 14.5B in a single month is wild the AI chip hunger shows zero signs of slowing down.

2
Gabriel Osorio-Mazzilli @InvestiBrew ·

When we consider the bullwhip effect that could affect $TSM through $NVDA, it becomes clear this is going to change sooner rather than later As $ORCL stands in the middle of these two (driving compute demand), chipmakers and equipment will continue to post such growth rates as long as OpenAI delivers We just got the first warning last month through a $500 billion bailout injection from NVIDIA As token prices are down over 40% since May, it means OpenAI will have to 2.5x their volumes just to meet old revenue targets That changes the economics of the trade completely

2
The Macro Whale @TheMacroWhale ·

@KobeissiLetter Although selling pressure is clearly ahead, I expect a decline in $TSM based on my Elliott Wave analysis. This decline would be the final leg of the correction, and $350 could be a good level for a reversal. x.com/TheMacroWhale/status/208…

2
Tech News @tech_summaries ·

@KobeissiLetter The scale of this is wild. Raising full-year 2026 revenue guidance to over 40% growth shows that AI demand is still accelerating, not just sustaining. The real story here is the cap-ex hike to $60B+ for the year. That's not just maintenance; it's a massive bet on 2nm capacity.

The Edge Guy @plaz28 ·

The number everyone's missing: TSMC needs to average $16-16.6B in August and September just to hit its own Q3 guidance. July's record $14.5B isn't enough on its own — it's the floor, not the ceiling. Meanwhile the PHLX Semiconductor index is still down 15% from its June high, pricing in exactly the opposite story. Someone's wrong here — either the chip sector selloff, or the belief that this pace holds for two more months straight.

3
Golden George @Theswizzway ·

@KobeissiLetter TSMC’s numbers reinforce the bigger picture: AI demand is still driving a massive semiconductor investment cycle. The key question now is whether earnings growth can keep up with the expectations already priced into AI stocks. 📈

2
WallyWalraven @WallyWalraven ·
2
liqwhale @liqwhale ·

@KobeissiLetter SK Hynix's CEO predicts that 2027 will be the worst year for supply shortages in the industry's history. Many CEOs share this view. We are approaching an even crazier era.

2
T Money @trevanonymous ·
2
Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ ·

@KobeissiLetter $60-64 billion CapEx assumes AI orders stay elevated through 2026, yet any pullback would leave utilization and margins exposed first.

Vlad Bastion @VladBastion · 16K
4
QSG Research @QSG_Research ·

@KobeissiLetter How much of July’s increase do you attribute to AI demand versus the seasonal smartphone ramp?

1
Tlwich @tlwich ·

@KobeissiLetter AI demand isn’t slowing,it’s forcing TSMC to spend at record levels just to keep up. The real question now isn’t whether AI demand exists, but whether capacity, margins and returns on that $60–64B CapEx can keep pace.

DΔVO | SOLST/CE @defidavo · 31K

@KobeissiLetter If AI demand was slowing, somebody forgot to tell TSM.

1
pearl @ontrialperiod ·

@KobeissiLetter This AI bubble is without shame

1 3
Macro Bombastic @MacroBombastic · 10K

@KobeissiLetter tsm's capex hike is the real tell, ai infrastructure spend stays relentless

Mahf R @Mahesh2115 ·

@KobeissiLetter Next year chip shortage would be huge..

1
Lucent Trader @lucenttrader ·

TSMC printing +45% July sales and lifting CapEx to $60-64B is the cleanest confirmation yet that AI demand is still accelerating. The fact that TSM is up 50% YTD while NVDA is only +20% shows the market is starting to price the pick-and-shovel more aggressively than the end product. Capacity remains the real bottleneck.

1
Mit Patel @mmpatel101 ·

@KobeissiLetter $TSM up 50% YTD against $NVDA's 20% is the market paying for the toll booth over the brand. Broader demand capture, and you skip the single name vol premium.

2
Papo Econômico @opapoeconomico · 22K

@KobeissiLetter Taiwan controls 90% of advanced chips. That's not a supply chain, that's a single point of failure with a flag on it.

4
FXE Capital™ @FXE_Capital ·

This is more than an AI earnings story it is a powerful signal for the global investment cycle. TSMC's capex accelerating alongside 40%+ revenue growth suggests the AI boom is still pulling real capital into productive capacity. For FX, the interesting channel is Asia's external balance: stronger semiconductor exports can support Asian currencies and reinforce the growth differential versus economies where AI investment is more consumption- and valuation-driven. The AI cycle is increasingly becoming a trade-flow story.

GoAI @GoAI_Official ·

@KobeissiLetter Was bullish on $TSM long ago. Back then, its earnings and valuation were completely out of sync due to geopolitical noise.

1
John Fitzgerald Kennedy (jnr) @jfkinexile ·

@KobeissiLetter TSMC’s numbers show just how powerful the AI chip boom has become. Massive sales growth and record investment point to strong demand ahead. The AI race is driving the entire semiconductor industry forward.

1

@KobeissiLetter @grok なんでTSMCしか作れないの?

1 1
Kaidloscopes @kaidloscopes ·

@KobeissiLetter AI infrastructure demand has become. 🚀💻

2
Mel Gibson @MelGibsons6 ·

The AI chip boom is showing no signs of slowing down. TSMC’s explosive sales growth and record capital-spending plans signal just how aggressively the world’s biggest tech companies are investing in AI infrastructure. Nvidia, Apple, and countless other AI players depend on TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities. If this demand continues, the semiconductor industry could be entering one of its biggest investment cycles ever. 🧠

2
卖飞哥 🐊(互 F 🤝 学习) @ResearchKONG ·

@KobeissiLetter 产能扩张和订单增长同时加速,AI硬件景气度暂时还看不到明显拐点。

1
TonyIsHere4You @TonyIsHere4You ·

@KobeissiLetter Hopefully it's not being driven by actual customer demand and not just AI companies borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars.

1 7
Serena Wolfe @PaperTrapX ·

@KobeissiLetter I’m trimming TSM to buy gold and silver mining stocks. That sector is printing cash

1 2
Sterling Labs @sl_wire ·

@KobeissiLetter Korea MCP/HBM exports rising 171% YoY to $12.68B confirms the AI upcycle is reaching memory, not just TSMC’s revenue line. How are you positioned for this?

Sentinel Deep Intelligence @Sentinel_Macro ·

@KobeissiLetter The demand point is hard to argue with. The sharper tell is TSM committing $60-64B of capex while guiding sales slightly above +40% - AI is moving from "who gets chips?" to "who absorbs the capacity bill if growth normalizes?" x.com/Sentinel_Macro/status/20…

1
Inflectiv AI ⧉ @inflectivAI · 44K

@KobeissiLetter TSMC’s numbers show that AI demand is translating into real semiconductor revenue, not just investor expectations

1
kElvorn0 @Kelvorn0 ·

@KobeissiLetter raising capex to a record range right after a 45% sales jump is the corporate version of buying a bigger boat while the fish are still biting what could go wrong?

1
saietta @vsaietta ·

@KobeissiLetter the 2.5x gap over nvidia is the real signal, nvidia's price has to absorb whether hyperscalers keep buying gpus or shift toward custom silicon, tsm fabs both outcomes so it isn't carrying that particular bet