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@Barchart Oh oh…

@Barchart Diesel at record seasonal lows keeps freight and input costs sticky across the board. If heating demand spikes, $SPX energy names catch a bid while the rest of the tape fights margin compression.

@Barchart I know what is coming

@Barchart Diesel supplies are getting tight as demand season approaches

@Barchart If demand stays firm, tighter supply can quickly turn into higher transport costs and broader inflation pressure.

@Barchart That is the kind of chart nobody trades until it turns up in an inflation print three months later.

@Barchart Diesel is becoming an inflation risk, not just an energy story.

Distillate is the fuel that moves everything else — trucks, rail, farm equipment, and heating oil all draw from the same barrel, and harvest plus heating season land in the same quarter. Thin inventories going into that window means diesel cracks do the rationing, and that cost shows up in freight rates months before anyone calls it inflation.

@Barchart $XLE U.S. diesel supply is at a record low for this time of year while refineries run 97.4% and the SPR, the government’s emergency oil tank, sits at 289.7M bbl, barely half full. Yet XLE is only 3% off its 64.7 high and traders act calm. I’d lean BUY on pullbacks.

Diesel just hit 103.4 million barrels, the weakest August ever recorded, and guess where that pain lands? At the checkout. Almost every truck, train and tractor burns it, so $5.60 a gallon gets baked into what you pay for food. Distillate supplies are the leanest going into winter since 2014, just as heating oil demand spikes. Drivers absorb the hit before you do.

@Barchart The US is a net exporter of diesel. Has nothing to do wirh Iran. We are being rug pulled

@Barchart And yet oil price still low. I guess they want them empty

@Barchart Brent upp

@Barchart Diesel inventories hitting a historic seasonal low is a significant supply signal. @DigiMaaya expects energy markets to keep this firmly on watch.