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@unusual_whales Only ~1.7% upside from current levels — bullish, but not exactly a moonshot.

@unusual_whales the dow dropped 700 points in a single day last week. these guys need four months for 900

@unusual_whales A year-end point target is not a probability. The useful question is what must go right for 54,500: earnings breadth, supportive rates and no valuation shock. A Reuters median compresses all that uncertainty into one neat number.

@unusual_whales I think anyone would be happy with this 3 year return on $DIA x.com/StonkcastShow/status/209…

@unusual_whales that is a linear extrapolation in a nonlinear world fixed income and energy costs will decide not a survey of forecasts

@unusual_whales 54,500 by year-end… Wall Street really looked at the chart and decided the economy is simply not allowed to have a bad ending this year.

@unusual_whales This is what makes market discussions worthwhile. Different opinions keep people thinking instead of just following the crowd. Been watching @Robert_Newman01 as well.

@unusual_whales 54,500, then everyone can pretend the poll was tradable

@unusual_whales Amazing the rich continue to get filthy fucking rich while the remaining 90% suffer like we haven’t suffered since the depression.

Predicting a precise figure like 54,500 for the Dow by the end of the year sounds appealing on paper. But the reality of the market is constant uncertainty. Models rarely fail to be wrong. Look at 2022: everyone anticipated a party, and we got a hangover.

@unusual_whales Could happen. Absolutely no one knows.

@unusual_whales fine, screenshot saved for december

@unusual_whales I think these polls are just noise until the fed blinks

@unusual_whales If wars ends

@unusual_whales Statistical Biasing

@unusual_whales Great, looks like it's time to buy some put options 💀

@unusual_whales 54500 by end of 2026… so basically another year of “just wait it’ll be fine”

@unusual_whales x.com/TheUnbiasedDem/status/20…

There is a loop in that forecast worth naming. Part of what pushed July core PCE to 3.34% against core CPI at 2.5% was portfolio management fees, which scale with asset values. So a call for the Dow at 54,500 is quietly also a call for that component to keep contributing. The index the committee targets rises partly because the index being forecast rises. Not the dominant term, but not zero either, and it points the wrong way for anyone expecting cuts to fund the rally.

@unusual_whales x.com/surge805/status/20926328…

@unusual_whales Thank you for sharing this insightful post! I'd love to connect and be friends with you :)

@unusual_whales 54,500? generational 1.7% upside

@unusual_whales every reuters target gets walked back before december

@unusual_whales What’s the value of the US dollar at year end?