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Deepak Shenoy

@deepakshenoy

RBI bought a few dollars in June, ending three months of net sales. But remember the FCNR thingy started in June, which should reflect as purchases - part of which might have reflected in forwards (forward purchases were $3.3bn) x.com/deepakshenoy/status/2092…

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3:08 PM · Aug 25, 2026 · 14K Views

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Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy · Aug 25 293K A

Still, RBI has sold a significant amount of dollars in the last three years, corresponding perhaps to FPI exits in equity markets. This financial year, so far, RBI has sold about $14 bn. x.com/deepakshenoy/status/2092…

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Alex DeWolf @TrackNetWorth · Aug 25 D

@deepakshenoy Central bankers playing accounting gymnastics with forward books while pretending it's organic flow is peak comedy, because everyone knows those swaps eventually come home to roost when liquidity tightens

AltiWealth @AltiWealth · Aug 25

@deepakshenoy Means a lot of Indian money masquerading as NRI funds went out and came in as FCNR $$?Correct me if I’m wrong. Can’t see the reason why the INR has moved?

Gladiator @EpicTradeDate · Aug 25

@deepakshenoy So the dollars are coming in from United Arab Emirates and not from US or UK. Interesting. What happens if the forwards are not rolled over ? moneycontrol.com/news/business…

Overlap by AP @ansujeet · Aug 25 D

@deepakshenoy Months of dollar selling → June dollar buying. Add the forward book to the picture, and this becomes much more interesting than a simple “RBI bought dollars” headline.

Souvik Ghosh @SouvikG1982 · Aug 25 D

@deepakshenoy My only concern is that despite the FCNR scheme being a hit, why hasn't the INR appreciated against the USD?

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Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy · Aug 25 293K A

Overall, forex reserves were still about $650bn in June (and now, about $717bn) But the forex forward "sales" number was $103bn in June, meaning effective reserves in June were probably $550bn. Of that, Gold is $100bn, and the remaining is in forex. $450bn is a very good number. Ignore the "months of imports" - it's meaningless. Our annual current account deficit is only $25 bn - we export stuff too, you know - and therefore, even $450bn = 18 years of effective net imports.

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Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy · Aug 25 293K A

RBI will show massive net purchases in July/August, when the data does come out. But most of that is FCNR inflows, which will mean our forward "sales" number will go up by the same amount. The operative number is probably $550bn as reserves, of which $100bn is gold. This is very comfortable, in my opinion, and provides ammunition for RBI to use it to reduce volatility in the USDINR market when required.

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