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Arthur Hayes
@CryptoHayes

"Same Same But Different" is an essay on why you should back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands. "Bad Gurl Yellen and Buffalo Bill Bessent are the same whether their rhetoric before taking office differed. They both suffered under the yoke of politicians who couldn’t help themselves but to spend more and more money on whatever nonsense they deemed worthy. But they both decided being the most powerful financier in all the land was worth it. And therefore, when the treasury market convulsed, they responded with clever money printing stratagem. When they manipulate the treasury market by printing money to cap yields, it creates dollar liquidity which flows into Bitcoin and crypto. I will cover two such episodes where Yellen and Bessent changed the game, and Bitcoin responded positively. The first episode was in late 2023 when Yellen issued more bills than bonds. The second episode is right now when Bessent intervened in the dollar-yen market and then upped treasury buy back notional. Bitcoin ripped off its lows after Yellen announced her money printing scheme, and I argue it will do the same after Bessent reestablished his conviction to follow in his predecessors’ footsteps and materially increase the pace of dollar liquidity creation." Read the full essay on my cryptohayes substack.

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46 replies collected of 55 X reports
P MAN @damn_then · 69K D

@CryptoHayes yeah the rhetoric flips but the debt addiction never does. back up the truck if you want, just dont be surprised when the same old controls show up later

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Vasilios Koukios @VasiliosKo18629 ·

@CryptoHayes APT arthur 🍾🫢

Vasilios Koukios @VasiliosKo18629 ·
Vasilios Koukios @VasiliosKo18629 ·

@CryptoHayes You said it in 6 APT 🫢😉

Dennis @denis_insider · A

Hayes spells out the ultimate macro thesis: sovereign debt defaults are politically impossible, so Treasury heads inevitably print swap Yellen for Bessent and the playbook stays identical: cap bond yields via Stealth QE, inflate dollar liquidity, and watch excess fiat flow straight into btc

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Dharma (d/acc) @dharmaexmachina ·

@CryptoHayes Pattaya girl reference in a macro economics policy article. Love it.

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HYPEconomist @HYPEconomist · 19K A

@CryptoHayes LMFAO

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awpSOL5 @awpSOL5 · 1.3M D

@CryptoHayes Which episode do you think moved Bitcoin more, the late 2023 Yellen move or the current Bessent one?

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Tisho 🪐🛸 @mempool_soutine · D

@CryptoHayes Calling it a money printing scheme skips the part where theyre reacting to a market already breaking thats not conviction, its a forced hand

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Chetanya @CryptoBatchof17 · D

@CryptoHayes That is so true. The structural debt forces their hand to print regardless of who is in charge. When dollar liquidity floods the system to cap yields, holding Bitcoin is the only logical lifeboat for your purchasing power.

DOMINATE. 🦅 @ExNihilo_Aquila · D
14126.eth @AIgent14126 · B

@CryptoHayes policy changes don’t matter when the printer is already on fire.

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Dot connector @m_zohal · D

@CryptoHayes They always end up printing. The only variable is how long the cope lasts before they admit it. BTC already priced the admission.

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charlie @PooWhale ·

@CryptoHayes Monero

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Lina 🦅 @XNXX_EN · 172K D

@CryptoHayes the printer wins

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InsomniaLK @InsomniaLK · D

@CryptoHayes Spot on Yellen and Bessent may have campaigned as opposites, but the Fed’s mandate leaves no room for the chaos they promise.

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Crypto Noob @cryptonoobini · D

@CryptoHayes do you think the pace of liquidity creation stays elevated if the treasury market calms down?

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Milly @milly_rock7 · D

@CryptoHayes The treasury market convulsing is such a vivid way to put it And the pattern of both responding with money printing really ties the two episodes together

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AlphaFeedX 🇺🇸 | Wall St Edge @AlphaFeedX · D

@CryptoHayes Great analysis! The Yellen/Bessent liquidity link to Bitcoin is spot on 🔥📈 📌 [Pinned Alpha] We monitor markets 24/7 and deliver only high‑value insights daily. Check our timeline for today’s critical signals. 📈

Cooper Westendarp @cooperwest ·
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richie Jr @Actionfigure23 · D

@CryptoHayes Print it like never before

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Jacob Crypto Bury @BuryCrypto · 12K C

@CryptoHayes “Same Same But Different”

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fr3d @joegmeiner1 ·

@CryptoHayes shill ena mister sir arthur hayes

Tomáš Janota @tomjntx · D

@CryptoHayes Yields capped, liquidity flows btc wins again

Abdul ghofar @Abdulghofaqf32 ·

@CryptoHayes Oh my good

CryptoNinjas @crypto_ninjas · 59K D

@CryptoHayes The cycle of fiscal policy rarely changes regardless of who occupies the seat.

NeonWhale @tetes_view · D

@CryptoHayes Does the essay distinguish between bill issuance and buybacks as liquidity channels, or treat them as the same mechanism?

Eric Brown @bitcoineric007 ·

@CryptoHayes This comparison between Bessent and Yellen is like comparing you and Scottie Pippen's crypto knowledge, and he met Satoshi.

Art Vandelay @ArtVandelayus · D

Bessents buybacks are likely just a drop in the bucket and have short term effects on BTC. If long end yields stay elevated (or keep rising), inflation remains sticky or accelerates on oil/Iran, and the labor market stays soft, the Fed has little reason to cut and may even hike. Result: risk-off. Stocks and Bitcoin under pressure Liquidity narrative meets stagflation reality.

Neo @EVRYDAYTRADES ·

@CryptoHayes 😂😂 this meme

@CryptoHayes This narrative is absolutely brilliant. It's the same old story no matter who the US Treasury Secretary changes; they'll still be printing money. Bitcoin is a freebie right now; any pullback is a buying opportunity. Don't wait until FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) to chase the price higher. I have Binance and EOS registration links pinned to my profile; just go for it!

original · zh

@CryptoHayes 这波叙事直接拉满,老美财长换谁都是换汤不换药,该印钞还是印钞。大饼这位置就是送分题,回调就是上车机会,别等FOMO了才追高。我简介置顶有币安和欧易的注册链接,老铁们冲就完事了。

acdiamond0123 @acdiamond0123 ·

@CryptoHayes 🤣🤣🤣

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Elemental Forge @ElementalForge_ ·

@CryptoHayes Is this "Liberal Scott Bessent"?

jingmichelle @jing2msn ·

@CryptoHayes bestie said same same but different and honestly the liquidity thesis is giving ✨ treasury buybacks = QE lite, and BTC heard it first 💅 the debasement trade is the real alpha 🎀🔥

狮子歌歌歌 @lionman888888 · 12K D

@CryptoHayes hhahahah In China, this look is called laosaozi (老嫂子).

original · et

@CryptoHayes hhahahahIn China, this look is called laosaozi(老嫂子).

The Future🧙‍♂️ @TheFutureCrypt0 ·

@CryptoHayes same same but different and bitcoin still heard it

MorphoFace @MorphoFace · C

@CryptoHayes They are the same because no one wants to see @CryptoHayes locked in secure building afraid to go out because the mob will literally eat him. They already got slogans! 😅😂🤣 x.com/MorphoFace/status/209244…

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flyawei @flyiiawei · 40K D

@CryptoHayes @laurashin Thanks for sharing this, Arthur! Learnt a lot from your essays.

afshin1994 @AAsf32656073 ·

@CryptoHayes Changing hair style is fun.

Raf Linens @raflinens · C

@CryptoHayes Philipp Plein mentioned 😂 x.com/raflinens/status/2092632…