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@cissan_9984 The early Rakuten team adopted a style of baseball where they didn't bunt because it had a low expected value, but for some reason it didn't yield results 🤔

@cissan_9984 Is it because the main factor is the psychological element for the pitcher in relation to scoring positions?

@cissan_9984 Maybe it's because they're used to high school baseball tournaments where one loss means immediate elimination? It's the same as having a mentality of taking profits quickly after taking a position, resulting in small gains and large losses.

@cissan_9984 When looking at the probability of scoring a run (scoring probability), it seems that in NPB it is sometimes pointed out to be almost flat or increase only slightly. (Example: No outs, runner on first base: around 34.8% → 1 out, runner on second base: around 35.1%)

@cissan_9984 There might be a culture that prioritizes defense even at the expense of lowering expectations. As a result, overall growth seems to be suppressed. lin.ee/TUzpckW

@cissan_9984 I don't know which game you're referring to, but in the Central League, pitchers bat, so it might seem like there are more batters, right? Even so, it feels like there are fewer batters.

@cissan_9984 x.com/JamesWashing863/status/2…

@cissan_9984 x.com/LisaChapman1374/status/2…

@cissan_9984 x.com/Loucoportud0/status/2091…

@cissan_9984 That's an interesting discussion from a baseball tactical perspective. When bunting, it's important to consider not only the expected value, but also the game situation, the batter's ability, and the defensive team's response. With the increasing use of data, Japanese baseball is also at a point where it needs to change from conventional wisdom.

@cissan_9984 In Japan, the primary focus is always on having a runner on scoring position, i.e., second base. You're only looking at it through a fixed mindset.

@cissan_9984 Sushi-niki's success rate in positioning lately is about 0.5.

@cissan_9984 x.com/sfwrtfwdik76/status/2091…

@cissan_9984 x.com/Pamelal39/status/2091476…

@cissan_9984 Lately, there are more cases in Japan where bunts aren't used, but I guess it depends on the batter and the batters behind them 🤔 In America, even the lower part of the batting order can hit for extra-base hits, so it's easy to score even without advancing the runners, but In Japan, you can't really expect extra-base hits from the lower part of the batting order, so it's often better to advance the runners to second base and hope for a run with a single! It depends on the situation!

@cissan_9984 x.com/NeitherTraditi/status/20…

@cissan_9984 x.com/Nicoleojf/status/2091477…

@cissan_9984 In this situation, bunting is a possibility, and the success rate will likely differ depending on whether it's a field where that's the consensus or not. It's a technique that works precisely because it catches the batter off guard. So, if it were done in the majors today, the success rate might be surprisingly high. I think the winning percentage will change depending on whether it's "expected" or not.

@cissan_9984 It's because professional baseball is dominated by stupid, stubborn old fogeys. In that respect, MLB is much more flexible. 😇

@cissan_9984 For short-term trading, do you prioritize reading the order book or technical analysis? x.com/HardyEilee81156/status/2…

@cissan_9984 x.com/nthgcoxhmnsk00/status/20…

@cissan_9984 I learned about expected score for the first time 😅

@cissan_9984 Power hitters don't do that. America has a lot of power hitters, so they don't do that. Also, Japanese managers tend to want to put runners in scoring position no matter what.

@cissan_9984 In high school baseball, batting average seems to matter, but I wonder what it is in professional baseball.

@cissan_9984 x.com/AprilHall87661/status/20…

@cissan_9984 It's not just about the data.

@cissan_9984 x.com/Dohnstonbaugh36/status/2…

@cissan_9984 x.com/samurai_america/status/2…

@cissan_9984 It's been getting a bit of a reassessment lately.

@cissan_9984 Winning 1-0 vs. Winning 10-0 vs. Winning if you have even one more run than your opponent at the end of the 9th inning, so you win if you have more runs than your opponent, so you have to consider not only the expected value but also the probability of scoring. In a game where you're winning 1-0 until the 8th inning, trying to score an unstable 3 runs in the 9th inning doesn't make much sense (closer is Kyuji Fujikawa) It's similar to whether you're a professional A-type or AT-type pachinko player It's not a competition based on the total run difference over the year

@cissan_9984 You couldn't study, could you?

@cissan_9984 x.com/fyetehdghorojg/status/20…

@cissan_9984 Which one is it? x.com/fern_kabu/status/2091478…

@cissan_9984 I think the main reason bunting remains is because it's a strategy that makes it difficult for the manager to be held accountable. If they go for a double play, it's easy to say, "Why didn't they bunt?" If they bunt and score no runs, it's easy to say, "They just couldn't get that one hit."

@cissan_9984 In the Japanese market, it's still common to see people deliberately choosing low-expected-value strategies even though risk-free asset-focused investments offer high expected returns. lin.ee/QUjkIbE

@cissan_9984 Because if a run is scored after a bunt, the manager who gave the bunt order can feel good about himself. It's nothing more than the manager's self-indulgence.

@cissan_9984 x.com/hempenbret33286/status/2…

@cissan_9984 Statistics that ignore the fact that it changes depending on the batter's level.

@cissan_9984 x.com/quoc425169541/status/209…

@cissan_9984 Is it because there's a score difference that you can't catch up to unless you hit?

@cissan_9984 In professional baseball, it's meaningless because they don't compare whether the same batter bunts or hits. If the batter senses Jun, he won't be able to hit, so he'll bunt, and it's understandable that the expected value of a bunt isn't high. If the batter is in the upper part of the batting order, he won't bunt as much, but the expected value of scoring is high regardless of whether he bunts or not.

@cissan_9984 x.com/LunarWarrior342/status/2…

@cissan_9984 x.com/Qorvixg/status/209147995…

@cissan_9984 x.com/astralechol0/status/2091…

@cissan_9984 Suddenly baseball?

@cissan_9984 x.com/enochsji/status/20914800…

@cissan_9984 x.com/powerfulpacv/status/2091…

@cissan_9984 x.com/Stephanie3es/status/2091…

@cissan_9984 When looking at the probability of scoring a run (scoring probability), it seems that in NPB it is sometimes pointed out to be almost flat or increase only slightly. (Example: No outs, runner on first base: around 34.8% → 1 out, runner on second base: around 35.1%) x.com/HardyEilee81156/status/2…

@cissan_9984 I don't think there's any benefit to it, but I'd like cis to try his hand at pachinko in this day and age.