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Deepak Shenoy
@deepakshenoy

Debt in the west is becoming a problem. And a debt problem is eventually and equity problem. India's chart looks much better here in comparison.

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Long-term borrowing costs across major economies hit multi-decade highs on as inflation concerns, deficit fears and surging AI bond issuance put pressure on government debt around the world… https://x.com/TamalBandyo/status/2089925344631636270/photo/1

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21 replies collected
Subramoney.com @pvsubramanyam · 60K

@deepakshenoy how could debt investors get 1% p.a taxable and equity investors get 8%? or renters and RE get 7%? Debt was OBVIOUSLY kept very low by the idiots who were running the FED. Something had to give. Simple math -you can't artificially control interest rate and the exchange rate

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Souvik Ghosh @SouvikG1982 · D

@deepakshenoy US will have little issues, as expected, but EU will have woeful times controlling this. You can do anything you want with debt as long as the world releis on your currency for trade.

abe @AbelAmos · D

@deepakshenoy if debt is a problem then monetary debasement is the answer

Pranav Agarwal @AgroPrawn ·

@deepakshenoy Doesn't this make it harder for us to raise cheap debt?

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EA20-Janata Party @CockrochPahepj ·

@deepakshenoy Brother, you should take a look at India... look at the funds of Kudh...

original · in

@deepakshenoy Bhai tu india ka dekh lena... Kudh ka fund dekho....

Kedar Deshpande @deshupdesh ·

@deepakshenoy How to handle this debt issue as an individual?

@deepakshenoy Debt rates must be higher..... This fiat scam must end

Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma · 311K

@deepakshenoy "The Rich Always Have Ways Out of Trouble. The Poor Don't. So let's worry ONLY about ourselves ".

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Prateek Jain @Prateekonomics ·

@deepakshenoy Welcome to the great global yield reset. x.com/Prateekonomics/status/20…

Finance Forecaster @SilkRdMoney ·

@deepakshenoy Debt-to-equity transmission is the right read. Term premium persisting across all four curves points to regime change rather than cyclical overshoot. India's starting point differs but the direction doesn't.

Nirav Kanodra @niravstoons · C

@deepakshenoy Compare 5y debt in 2021 and 10y debt issued in 2016. This is maturing and western countries will be repaying this. Replacing with higher cost of debt. Weighted average maturity is 6y (US) to 12y (UK) So 30y not that relevant.

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Arindam Banerjee @iarindam ·

@deepakshenoy Exactly the reason they have gone all-in on AI.A lot of their policy makers feel that AI will solve this problem to some extent.Devaluation is of course the more straight forward way out but this will come with its own set of challenges particularly with an ageing demography

Aether @AetherVoyager · D

@grok How do India and the US really stack up when you look at their government finances, debt levels, tax systems, bond yields, growth potential, and ability to handle external shocks? And right now, which of the two has more room to maneuver if interest rates stay high for longer while still trying to keep growth strong?

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Soham Das, CFA @sohamdas ·

@deepakshenoy Borrowing will always look nice for the sovereign when they have SLR norms.

Vkrish.. @yesvamsi ·

@deepakshenoy Not bad now every one is talking.. Few years ago it was Taboo to talk negative against west and whites..

Chiragh @realChiragh ·

@deepakshenoy You are an illiterate . West is rich. We are poor.

Yogesh Khullar @yogesh_khullar ·

India's own 30Y G-sec is at 7.41% today, up just 0.20pp YoY, still below its 2008 peak of 9.92%. Also fits what you told @AgroPrawn: India never had the ultra cheap 2012 to 2021 era the West is now unwinding from, our yields stayed in the 6 to 9% range throughout. Expected to ease toward 7.18% next year too, the opposite direction from the chart above.

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P K @shareswalla ·

@deepakshenoy Isnt this going to drive down FDI even lower for India?

The Eastern Capitalist @TEcapitalist ·

@deepakshenoy They can manage the high yields. US allocates nearly 14-15% towards interest costs per year. We allocate about 25%. In the US, this high interest cost is considered a huge problem. In no way are we in a better position.

Jhakaas Jungli @jhakaasjungli · D

@deepakshenoy India has everything better except for usage of debt. US fought lots of wars overseas and fuelled debt, we make our citizens fight bad infra and high real estate

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Nirav Kanodra @niravstoons · C

@deepakshenoy Average is lower duration. But US overnight rates 3.65 and 30y 5.23 10y is 4.70

Pranav Agarwal @AgroPrawn ·

@deepakshenoy Of course. :) I only meant we become even less attractive in relative terms, when yields on the bonds of developed countries go up.

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Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy · 293K A

@AgroPrawn This has not been true in recent times. When our yields were way higher, we werent' seeing bond inflows. When our yields are relatively lower (last two years) we have seen good inflows. The data doesn't suggest what the theory says

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Pranav Agarwal @AgroPrawn ·

@deepakshenoy Ah, fair, thanks. :) Is all this weirdness a post-COVID phenomenon?

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