France's 30-Year Bond Yield hit 4.8% for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨 x.com/Barchart/status/20872546…
· 57K Views
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France's 30-Year Bond Yield hit 4.8% for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨 🚨 x.com/Barchart/status/20872546…
· 57K Views
@Barchart Central banks control short term rates. Nobody controls the 30 year. So France at 4.8% is the market's opinion of the budget, not the ECB's.
@Barchart More of this. I want the EU implode!!! x.com/mrtaanderson/status/2087…
@Barchart I'm gathering everything is fine. And if it isn't, the governments will change the definition of everything to make it fine
@Barchart Sovereign duration stress at 4.8% hits differently when France is still running primary deficits. The ECB's TPI backstop was designed for spread blowouts, not a parallel selloff where German bunds are moving the same direction.
The increase in yields can be almost 100% attributed to an increase in investor's risk aversion. We can decompose yield on long dated bonds into the component that is equal to what you would earn if you just rolled over short-term bond investments and the extra return or "risk premium" investors need to hold the long bond and suffer losses should rated rise. The New York Fed provides daily updates of their estimate this risk or term premium. Since the recent lows in June, 96% of the yield increase in the 10-year note is due to investors becoming more worried about a rate shock and demanding more risk premium to be exposed to it.
@Barchart Everyone's debt is getting more expensive. France in Germany are in relative lockstep, America is winning, but Japan is coming up from behind! x.com/utopia_escape/status/208…