BREAKING 🚨: France France's 30-Year Bond Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🤯 👀 x.com/Barchart/status/20870712…
· 185K Views
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BREAKING 🚨: France France's 30-Year Bond Yield hits highest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🤯 👀 x.com/Barchart/status/20870712…
· 185K Views
@Barchart That's the pressure point, but not a GFC-style default scare yet. France's long bond is repricing fiscal duration in a higher-for-longer world, while high-yield spreads at 2.70 still say credit isn't panicking. Stress moved to the long end first. x.com/Sentinel_Macro/status/20…
@Barchart All global recession indicators are going haywire right now. x.com/d3structo_/status/208707…
@Barchart The 30 year is the part of the curve the ECB doesn't really control. It prices whether people still want to lend to France for thirty years. Rate cuts don't answer that question. The budget does.
@Barchart Rising long-term yields signal growing investor concerns around debt, fiscal outlook, and future policy direction.
@Barchart add super high migrant influx and high unemployment rate
France's 30-year bond yield hitting its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis alongside rising US Treasury yields is a clear signal that the era of ultra-cheap global borrowing has officially ended. Both countries are running massive budget deficits and issuing historic amounts of government debt to fund their operations. For over a decade after 2008, central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank bought up vast amounts of this debt to keep interest rates artificially low. Now that central banks have stopped buying, governments must rely entirely on private investors who demand significantly higher interest returns to lend their money long-term. The connection between rising French rates and rising US rates comes down to global competition for investor capital. Money moves freely across borders, so if the United States offers high interest on its long-term bonds, France has to raise its yields to match, or global investors will simply move their money to America. This creates an interconnected chain reaction across developed economies, pulling interest rates upward everywhere. Furthermore, investors locking up their money for 30 years are demanding a higher buffer against persistent inflation and deep government debt, driving yields up even further. For the average American, rising government bond yields are the underlying engine driving higher borrowing costs across the entire economy. Because 30-year fixed mortgage rates directly track long-term government bond yields rather than short-term Federal Reserve rate changes, housing affordability will remain strained for the foreseeable future. The same ripple effect applies to car loans and credit card interest. However, the silver lining for everyday savers is that conservative investments, such as certificates of deposit (CDs) and government bonds, are offering some of the strongest risk-free returns seen in nearly two decades.
@Barchart This “crisis” will help Ursula have her Hamiltonian moment for Europe. It will speed likelihood of a Euro Bond — which is meant to rival US Treasuries — just as Hamilton bundled state debts into a federal debt in the IPO of 1787 (the US Constitution). open.substack.com/pub/creditwo… x.com/patrickberzai/status/208…
@Barchart Why do I feel like a big recession is right around the corner
@Barchart Here’s the thing about yields: 🚨👇 x.com/MyFriendAlex/status/2087…
@Barchart Oh @FunctionCheck another one.... x.com/AtomicEconomics/status/2…