An investment of $1 million in TQQQ 15 years ago (early August 2011) would be worth approximately $151.7 million today.
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An investment of $1 million in TQQQ 15 years ago (early August 2011) would be worth approximately $151.7 million today.
· 564K Views
@ThinkingUSD imagine the stress of watching that rollercoaster ride for 15 years
@ThinkingUSD i think $72 million x.com/i_r_s8/status/2084675056…
@ThinkingUSD Yes and what is the purchasing power of 1$ now? @grok everyone will be a trillionaire soon
@ThinkingUSD One position. one mem flip. meanwhile TQQQ just needed you to sit still for 15 years and not touch it 😭
@ThinkingUSD That’s actually crazy, I assumed with the massive drawdowns that wouldn’t work
@ThinkingUSD and most people still couldnt hold it that long the real edge is patience not picking the right ticker
@ThinkingUSD so youre saying i should just go back in time and ape my whole stack into tqqq cool cool cool
@ThinkingUSD TQQQ will probably see $25 sometime in the next 2-5 years. Will be a great buying opportunity aslong as you can survive
@ThinkingUSD Tracking error from higher variance in leveraged ETFs is brutal though. For example since late 2021 QQQ has actually outperformed x.com/fejau_inc/status/2084681…
@ThinkingUSD wht ppl don't realize is it's literally going to 0 once the AI bubble pops up. The maths that worked so great on the way up is going to force liquidations when it goes down.
@ThinkingUSD brother almost whatever you bought 15 years ago and held it till today would made you a ton of money
@ThinkingUSD The amount of people that put >$1mm in tqqq 15 years ago is exactly 0
@ThinkingUSD I thought this was sarcastic because obviously a levered ETF has friction that destroys long-term value... But somehow the unilateral compounding upward movements have WAY overpowered the levered friction. My Lord. This is actually stunning.
@ThinkingUSD during covid when I was leveraged long stocks with a holding period I sold tqqq to my roommate midway through the rip to hedge some never again
@ThinkingUSD The issue is - on levered ETFs drawdowns are levered too. U need to 2X to recover from a 50% drawdown
@ThinkingUSD Starting just a few years earlier (20 years ago) can produce a vastly different experience because recovering from a 98–99% drawdown (of the 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis) requires gains of 4,900% to 9,900% just to get back to breakeven. x.com/murmurhudson/status/2084…
@ThinkingUSD Who the hell had $1 million in 2011 I had only maxed out credit cards
@ThinkingUSD TQQQ is the rare case where a leveraged product actually delivered on its promise over a full cycle. Most people don't hold through the 80% drawdowns to get there.
@ThinkingUSD Did you invest? Had you invested? Would you Invest now? Same old rhetoric, this happened that happened, after many years down the lane story.
@ThinkingUSD It’s not a point to point fun do you have to count for the intro day drawdowns
@ThinkingUSD @MaisonGhost 👆 You know what this means
@ThinkingUSD Why not just say “an investment 15 years ago would have 150x your money”?
@ThinkingUSD A $1,000,000 investment in TQQQ 26 years ago (early July 2000) would be worth approximately $880,000. Leverage works both ways.
@ThinkingUSD Not true. Look into volatility drag as well as the higher fees ( way way higher fees) associated with it. Feel free to consult an AI and have it explain it to you. Leveraged ETFs are funky and this is misinformation. Too long to explain in one tweet. Pls don’t listen to this crap
@ThinkingUSD That’s not how that works. The decay is brutal if you hold it for long periods.
9 replies whose parent comment X withheld
CPI tracks the average change in consumer prices over time. That’s the definition of price inflation used by BLS, Fed, and most economists for purchasing-power calculations. Some reserve “inflation” strictly for money-supply growth; rising prices are then the effect. Either way, the ~47% CPI rise since 2011 still leaves TQQQ’s gains overwhelmingly positive in real terms.
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD I genuinely hope you don't actually manage other peoples money. You should have been able to decipher what I was actually trying to say. I guess I worded it poorly. First off this is dog shit due to the biased inception date. it's literally meaningless statistically.....
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD the more important problem is in reality this probably doesn't happen like this again. It's the luckiest, best sample you can possibly come up with. WAY better than the median sample. Run a synthetic 3x QQQ back test starting in 2000 and you end up down 99.99% and never recover
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD and then lets talk about path dependence.... nobody in the world is capable of reproducing these results because nobody has the ability to hold through the drawdowns. If you invested $1m in 2010 you would have watched it become $190 k. You think you're holding through that ?
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD Could also disucss kelly framing... or optimal leverage. QQQ 2010-2026 15 % excesss return on 19 % vol = f* of roughly 4. So 3x was BELOW full kelly. That's why it worked. but you can only state that AFTER the fact. Feed in more defensible parameters...
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD say 7 % excess return, 25 % vol, and f* 11 you get roughly 1.1 with the zero-growth point (2f*) around 2.2x. At 3x leverage ( tqqq) you are PAST the point where more leverage REDUCES terminal weatlth.... forever....
@dvdcfrm @ThinkingUSD Finally... if you manage other people's money why tf are you using morningstar ? Where is your bloomberg terminal ? 🤡
@xOverfitCapital @ThinkingUSD Triggered much? I was simply addressing your declaration that the OP's statement was "not true." Of course any 3x strategy carries enormous risk and TQQQ clearly benefitted from optimal conditions. Appreciate the effort you put into your responses, I hope it was worth your time
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