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S SixOnWallSt
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@SixOnWallSt

昨晚核对了一份财报日历,发现有个传闻该删掉了 晚上把8月第一周的财报日历重新过了一遍,顺手核了下之前整理的一份表格,结果发现有个地方出了大问题,写出来给同样在盯美股的各位提个醒。 先说对的,免得大家慌。 PLTR周一盘后,周二SPCX、ALAB、ANET、AMD四家扎堆,周三存储半导体那批——SNDK、CRCL、GFS、WDC、IONQ,周四是AAOI和NET。这个节奏是准的,日历上就那么排的。周五晚上八点半非农,美联储刚开完会,这是第一份重量级就业数据,到时候波动肯定不小,仓位重的自己心里有数。 存储那边我基本认同,HBM现在是卖方市场,毛利率高得离谱,跟普通DRAM、SSD完全是两个世界的东西。长鑫长存产能释放的影响也是实打实的,2026年底之后全球供给格局会变,美股存储股不可能再像前两年那样闭眼买都涨了。三星海力士美光三家垄断高端,但中间产能爬坡的节奏、库存周期的扰动,股价走起来肯定磕磕绊绊,这个判断没问题。 SPCX的解禁数据也是真的——8月6号,9.115亿股,市值超千亿,流通盘一下子撑大这么多,短期抛压不能不防。 但有一个东西我核完发现不对,得专门拎出来说。 之前表格里引用了一条WSJ的消息,说特斯拉考虑剥离中国业务给SpaceX合并铺路。我当时写的时候其实也犹豫过,因为这个逻辑太绕了——中国业务剥离、然后跟航天公司合并,中间隔着多少道监管墙?中美两边哪个能痛快放行?但想着既然是WSJ传出来的,就顺手带了一笔,结论也没敢往乐观方向写,只说"不能作为短期买卖逻辑"。 结果再一查,这条已经被官方按死了。 马斯克那边辟了,特斯拉官方辟了,特斯拉中国也辟了。三条线同时否认,基本属于盖棺定论。我这条信息明显滞后了,虽然结论本身没歪——确实不该拿来当交易依据——但引用了一个已经被证伪的传闻来论证,这个写法本身就有问题,得认。 所以如果你之前看过我那版内容,这里单独修正一下:那个合并传闻是假消息,后面不要再参考了。 说回整体感受。 其实核对完一圈,最大的体会倒不是哪个数据对哪个错,而是现在这个市场环境里,信息滞后的代价比想象中大。财报窗口本来就敏感,SPCX又带着解禁压力,存储板块还在分化,这时候如果还抱着过时的传闻做判断,很容易被带偏。 我自己的做法是,以后但凡涉及"传"、"据消息"这种来源的内容,要么直接删掉不用,要么标注清楚"未经证实"并且不再往逻辑链里放。真金白银的事情,经不起二手传闻折腾。 非农那晚我大概率会守着看,但不是为了做方向性赌注,主要是想看看就业数据跟市场预期的偏差能有多大,进而推断美联储口风会不会有微调。仓位上的应对已经提前收缩了一些,等数据出来再说。 大概就这些。内容里面的数据都核过了,但决策还是得各位自己拿,毕竟账户是各自的。 祝这周持仓安稳。

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105 replies collected of 112 X reports
HuaHua🌱狗宝真帅🐶 @HuaHua_BTC ·

@SixOnWallSt This clarification is more valuable than the financial report itself.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这条辟谣比财报本身更有价值

Y豆芽 @Hyy603 ·

@SixOnWallSt explained it very well, thank you for your hard work, teacher!

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 说的很详细 老师费心了啊

犬たちの癒し日常🐶 @jingjia89117335 ·

@SixOnWallSt It's really great that teachers have the habit of verifying information. It always ensures the accuracy of the information.

original · ja

@SixOnWallSt 教師が情報を確認する習慣は本当に素晴らしい。それは常に情報の正確性を保証するものだ。

HiSeven|🕊️ @hisevenih · 18K

@SixOnWallSt This debunking and correction was very timely; delayed information can easily lead to misinterpretations.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这条辟谣修正很及时,信息滞后确实容易带偏节奏

无界云VPN @WuJieYunVPN ·

@SixOnWallSt How many overseas orders can Changxin secure? Can DDR627 be mass-produced?

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 长鑫能吃到多少海外外溢的订单,DDR627能量产吗?

MoCuishle I base.eth 🐬TermMax @liuhuafeng1019 ·

@SixOnWallSt This sharing session by teacher was so well done, I give it a thumbs up!

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 老师用心做的分享,写的太好了,赞一个

Anson 🔶 BNB @bingo_eth · 57K

@SixOnWallSt, your analysis is very insightful, really great!

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 老师拆解得很有深度,真不错

doggod_蓝V互关 @_qingfu_ ·

@SixOnWallSt Proactively correcting your mistake is a huge plus; there aren't many people in the market willing to admit their errors. Information lag is truly detrimental, especially during earnings season; an outdated rumor can easily sway market sentiment. Closing positions before the non-farm payrolls report was wise. Hold on and wait for the data before making any moves. Wishing you a stable week with your holdings 🫡

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 主动纠错这事儿太加分了,市场里敢认错的人不多。信息滞后确实坑人,尤其财报季,一个过时传闻真能带偏节奏。非农前收仓位是明智的,稳住等数据出来再动,祝你这周持仓安稳🫡

foxboy🦊|X自助饭堂 @foxbaby666 ·

@SixOnWallSt From now on, any content that is "rumored" or "based on information" must be verified before it can be published.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 以后“传”“据消息”的内容需要核实无误了才能发布

1
七毛🔶BNB @qimaoao ·

@SixOnWallSt The news is a mix of truth and falsehood, so we need to carefully judge it, since it involves real money.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 消息真真假假 还得仔细判断 毕竟玩的是真金白银

@SixOnWallSt Everyone must be responsible for their own accounts

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 大家一定要对自己的账户负责

墨钺🫆 @9Nosing ·

@SixOnWallSt Tesla's sales in China, how could Old Ma possibly give up?

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 特斯拉在中国的销售量,老马怎么可能放弃

Bandit and Bluey|X自助饭堂 @McGrady8898 ·

@SixOnWallSt Very detailed, I've learned a lot, thank you teacher.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 相当详细,学习了,谢谢老师

鲨鱼丨Shark丨X自助饭堂 @SharkBtcEth ·

@SixOnWallSt is proactive in pointing out and correcting incorrect information, which is much better than many bloggers who only report good news and not bad. Let's stay tuned together on the night of the non-farm payrolls report.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 能主动把错的信息拎出来纠正,这比很多只会报喜不报忧的博主强多了,非农那晚一起守住

1
无双-明灯 @youguqi2023 ·

@SixOnWallSt Currently, many people in the market are only offering fragmented information. How can teachers avoid these misleading messages?

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 目前市场很多人都是只言片语,老师怎么规避这些消息

@SixOnWallSt 「真金白銀的事情,經不起二手傳聞折騰」這句話太到位了!很多人在財報季輸的不是技術面,而是被未證實的媒體傳聞帶偏了交易節奏。

大白高国 @dabai00001 · 12K

@SixOnWallSt This week is a data-intensive week. It feels like the SPCX index is about to drop below 100 after the restrictions on SPCX institutions are lifted!

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这周是密集型数据的一周,感觉SPCX机构解禁,要把SPCX干到100以下了!

beyond5188 @Meta888_hk · 12K

@SixOnWallSt A very solid fundamental analysis of US stocks, and what's most commendable is the reflection and correction.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 很扎实的美股基本面分析,最难能可贵的是有反思,有修正。

Jackly @CryptoRoom007 ·

@SixOnWallSt The price movement of $SPCX is similar to that of memes in the crypto world; there's no room for further upward movement.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt $SPCX 的走势和币圈的meme走势类似啊,没有上涨空间

金水 @twitcto ·

@SixOnWallSt This merger will definitely not succeed; the higher-ups won't allow it—it involves the very foundation of the nation.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这个肯定不会合并成功的,上面也不会允许,这是涉及国本了

Yumo 语默 @longqidui369 ·

@SixOnWallSt This labeling principle is worth learning for everyone involved in compiling US stock information. Earnings season is full of secondhand rumors; not verifying them yourself is tantamount to playing with your account.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这个标注原则值得所有做美股信息整理的人学。财报季二手传闻满天飞,自己不核实就是拿账户开玩笑。

Trade off @tradeoff665 ·

@SixOnWallSt Friday is non-farm payroll night, probably another wild swings in the market, let's lay low for now.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 周五非农夜,估计又是一波天地针,先避避风头

二狗冠名就上薪火 @JunLin42808 ·

@SixOnWallSt Right now I only dare to hold no positions.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 现在我只敢空仓在手啊

北北🔥 🔥🔥 @beibei415 ·

@SixOnWallSt A phase of observing more and acting less while holding no positions...

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 空仓中 一个多看少动的阶段。。。

Canjian | 残剑 @bxiaokang · 14K

@SixOnWallSt SPCX opened high but then fell, currently trading below $135. What will happen next?

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt SPCX上市的时候高开低走了,目前跌破135美元,后期会怎么走呢

1
拳头👊🕊️ @pvyyu42928466 · 12K

@SixOnWallSt HBM's gross margin is ridiculously high; it's not the same as regular storage.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt HBM毛利率高得离谱,跟普通存储不是一回事。

王二狗 | Open to Work @IPFS15 ·

@SixOnWallSt Market judgments may differ, but factual evidence must stand up to scrutiny.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 市场判断允许有分歧,但事实依据必须经得起核验。

阿洛 | 冠名就上薪火 @zyl2005 ·

@SixOnWallSt Real information is so precious these days. X is full of unsubstantiated rumors. Without independent thinking, you'll just be led by the nose.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 现在真实的消息太珍贵了,x上都是捕风捉影的信息,自己再没有独立思考,就被牵着鼻子走了

0x_小赤|冠名就上薪火 @0xxiaochi1 · 24K

@SixOnWallSt This analysis is very comprehensive, good.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这个分析还是太全面了,good

@SixOnWallSt I'm going to cry if Musk doesn't pump the stock soon!

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 马斯克还不拉盘我就要哭了啊

@SixOnWallSt The non-farm payroll data is crucial; we should definitely wait and see.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 非农的数据很关键,是应该蹲一下

@SixOnWallSt Storage probably doesn't have much potential left, let's switch to another area.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 储存应该没有大的潜力了,换个赛道

币天天 @xiaofeilong99 · 16K

@SixOnWallSt I ran myself ragged trying to debunk the rumors, but you beat me to it.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 辟谣跑断腿还是被你抢先了

小美哥🕊️|🐬TermMax @luke102579 · 15K

@SixOnWallSt 我看穩穩的跌破一百 老馬收割了

HH @HHisnothing ·

@SixOnWallSt 感謝分享相關資訊 這很值得關注一下

狼之羊(欲哭无泪ing) @mzmmsplf ·

@SixOnWallSt It's admirable to admit your mistakes and correct them. Actively updating your mistake and explaining the reasons shows a high level of integrity and magnanimity.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 知过能改,善莫大焉,主动更新错误,并说明原因,感觉诚信度和格局拉满啊

Richmond @VictorRich5360 ·

@SixOnWallSt Indeed, news windows are inherently sensitive, and SPCX is under pressure to lift its ban. The storage sector is still diverging. At this time, if you still make judgments based on outdated rumors, it is easy to be misled.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 确实,报窗口本来就敏感,SPCX又带着解禁压力,存储板块还在分化,这时候如果还抱着过时的传闻做判断,很容易被带偏。

@SixOnWallSt Proactively correcting errors is a huge plus! ⚡ The cost of delayed information during earnings season is too high; it's better to have less noise and more truth. Wishing you a stable week with your holdings 🙏

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 主动纠错太加分了⚡财报季信息滞后成本太高了,宁可少点噪音多点真相,祝这周持仓安稳🙏

AI观察员_帕鲁 @cybyyds000 ·

@SixOnWallSt You need to learn to judge information based on financial data. Those rumors circulating online might just be the information that investors want you to see.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 要学会资金判断信息,那些网传的可能就是资本想让你看到的消息

Aponi @Aponi_lys ·

@SixOnWallSt Long-term storage is a must-develop strategy, but the market is most afraid of speculative trading based on rumors. Being able to proactively correct rumors demonstrates a true research-oriented attitude.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 储存长期是必须发展的,但市场最怕听消息炒股,能主动修正传闻,这才是真正做研究的态度

@SixOnWallSt It feels like it's still a safe period for a while, so there shouldn't be any major problems.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 感觉是还是一段时间的安全期,问题不大。

子清 @qklxsqf · 116K

@SixOnWallSt That's good

original · ja

@SixOnWallSt 挺好的

风起(卡芙卡版) @liqp001 ·

@SixOnWallSt The combination of the lifting of restrictions and employment data will definitely cause significant volatility.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 解禁+就业数据双重扰动,波动肯定不小。

Azzie @Motier_crypto ·

@SixOnWallSt Great transparency in owning the outdated rumor and setting the record straight—much respect for prioritizing accuracy over ego, especially with a busy earnings week and nonfarm ahead.

@SixOnWallSt This self-examination is very practical; information delays can easily lead to pitfalls.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 这波自查很实在,信息滞后确实容易踩坑

Super Man(冠名就上薪火) @yun1031433242 ·

@SixOnWallSt In this market environment, the cost of information lag is greater than imagined.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 在这个市场环境里,信息滞后的代价比想象中大

暖阳🔆 - X自助饭堂 @nuanyang688 ·

@SixOnWallSt Information updates are key; keep a close eye on the data and don't let rumors take advantage of you.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 信息更新才是王道,盯紧数据不能被谣言割韭菜

Jan @voidJan ·

@SixOnWallSt The fact that someone dares to retract that erroneous post is rarer on X than a bunch of accurate data.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 光敢自己撤回那条错帖子 这一步在X上就比一堆准数据更稀缺

🍭吃货不怕胖|上Gate玩事件合约 @Jadtrrguson · 11K

@SixOnWallSt Your analysis is very professional and easy to understand.

original · zh

@SixOnWallSt 你这个分析还是很专业了让人一看就懂了

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