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Arthur Hayes
@CryptoHayes

We need to monitor this weeks Fed H.4.1 release to confirm whether the JP MOF repo’d their TSY for $ then sold them to buy Yen. If Bessent can get the counterparty limit increased then the Fed can create money using MOF TSY as collateral.

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The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners. Economic security is national security. And the U.S.-Japan alliance is built on both. Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months. We strongly support Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen. The Takaichi government is moving into an exciting new phase of Abenomics, as nearly 15 years of powerful stimulus have created durable, robust underlying economic dynamics.

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41 replies collected of 56 X reports

@CryptoHayes ⤴️ Now act.

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Netinho Andrade @pteroma_walk ·

@CryptoHayes so if the Fed ups the limit it basically opens a direct channel to create dollars against Japan’s treasury holdings that’s a pretty big shift in how the facility gets used

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FAN @sss_crypto · 12K

@CryptoHayes A typical American routine

original · ja

@CryptoHayes 老美的日常基操

Atrhru Heyas @AmandaLand1221 ·

@CryptoHayes My strategy analysis ! as follows📈📈 👇 👇 👇 x.com/i/grok/share/9eed81d4916…

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sindikitil @sindikitil ·

@CryptoHayes Been watching the TSY repo chatter. This read is cleaner than the selling JGBs narrative — Fed balance sheet is the real backstop here.

P MAN @damn_then · 69K

@CryptoHayes h4.1 gonna be the real tell if those tsy holdings actually moved or if this is just another cope theory on yen defense plays

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14126.eth @AIgent14126 ·

@CryptoHayes the fed printing against mof tsy basically lets bessent fund intervention without congress, but the haircut and counterparty cap are the real choke points.

why @NullContex1s ·

@CryptoHayes H.4.1 is gonna be the tell. If Bessent actually gets that limit raised, dollar liquidity just got a new spigot.

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VitalikPage @monicaa60642389 ·
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Wizard of Alt @Wizard_Of_Alt ·

@CryptoHayes if this is real the yen bid should hold without follow up intervention, that's the test not the press release

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ALEX DATA @Revetexxx ·

@CryptoHayes They sold euros to buy yen

Macro Bombastic @MacroBombastic · 10K

@CryptoHayes watching h4.1 too, this fima upsizing would be huge for liquidity

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Antonio Gomes @onchainantonio ·

@CryptoHayes repo route keeps yields quiet because MOF gets dollars without flooding the market with treasuries. counterparty limit increase is just the Fed choosing to eat more balance sheet risk on collateral it doesn't own. clean mechanism, real consequences.

richie Jr @Actionfigure23 ·

@CryptoHayes To print or not to print.. on it x.com/Actionfigure23/status/20…

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Kaff 📊 @Kaffchad · 29K

@CryptoHayes if H.4.1 shows it, is that stealth easing or just plumbing?

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CryptoRodo @RodolfoPozoA ·

@CryptoHayes @grok where to monitor this? Send link

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Lina 🦅 @XNXX_EN · 169K

@CryptoHayes the h4.1 data is the only thing that matters right now

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NaoX Protocol @NaoXprotocol · 243K

@CryptoHayes Foreign official accounts in the H.4.1 custody line move before repo detail confirms anything. If that counterparty limit shifts quietly, Bessent negotiated something completely outside standard FX intervention channels.

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- @valley_rafter ·

@CryptoHayes The FIMA repo angle is underrated Most people dont realize it can turn foreign TSY into dollar liquidity that easily

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Postures @postures1 ·

@CryptoHayes When’s your next big dump on retail/your followers? Asking for a friend.

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泰坦链 | DeFi @TiTan_Web3_ ·

@CryptoHayes FIMA cap is the fuse

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The AI Therapist @TheAIShrink ·

@CryptoHayes Mof repo’d tsy -> sold -> bought yen. bessent raises counterparty limit -> fed prints less -> liquidity tightens. rates up, yen shorts get long. the trade is the rate, not the crypto

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PLANET @by_demireli ·
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Paul @MorpheusGMD ·

@CryptoHayes You need to crawl back into your hole

1
loan🇺🇲Nyc🗽 @chytofayel009 ·

@CryptoHayes How about disclosing what you are doing in the oil market?

Jack Liu @lpudvc ·

@CryptoHayes Hey man, which coin are you bullish on lately?

Miles Hawkings ☀️ @clanofthehawk ·

@CryptoHayes MF PSY

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Crypto Marshall @UpOnlyLFG ·
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HaxKai @chartexpt · 63K

@CryptoHayes H.4.1 shows if MOF drew on FIMA repo. It won't show if the $60B/7 day cap got raised, that's a separate Fed decision Bessent hasn't gotten yet.

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Alina-Malina @Alina_Malina999 ·

@CryptoHayes fed watching that h.4.1 like a hawk rn - need to know if those tsy's moved

MoonGlord 🦖🐂 @smartgee396 ·

@CryptoHayes Sharp insight

Daily Market Pro @DailyMarketPro ·

@CryptoHayes Hey how long time after your check your DMs?

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Wallet Flow @rajeshb87gmail1 ·

@CryptoHayes nah this is getting too surgical for what's actually happening rn. if they're just doing standard repo mechanics it's not as spicy as the collateral angle makes it sound

Sol Shift @ArmaanK98035903 ·

@CryptoHayes if this pans out the entire yen carry unwind narrative gets flipped. watching the h.4.1 like a hawk this week tbh

99 @Lajay99 ·

@CryptoHayes Thanks for the update

CriptoVegas @CriptoVegas ·

@CryptoHayes If the MOF collateral swap goes through, that's dollar liquidity created without the Fed touching its own balance sheet headline, the stealth QE playbook. Watching the custody line for foreign official holdings this week too, not just the repo book.

Lisa Florentina @LisaFlorentina8 · 13K

@CryptoHayes Interesting dynamics at play with the Fed's operations and MOF's repo strategies!

Lisa Florentina @LisaFlorentina8 · 13K

@CryptoHayes Interesting dynamics at play here; the impact on liquidity could be significant!

2 replies whose parent comment X withheld

Crypto Marshall @UpOnlyLFG ·

@grok @CryptoHayes @grok and what’s the implication of opportunities in the US equity market?

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Grok @grok · 9M

If Japan repos Treasuries via FIMA for dollars then sells them for yen, Fed balance sheet expands temporarily without Japan dumping USTs into the market. That avoids yield spikes that pressure stocks while adding liquidity. Stronger yen risks some carry-trade unwind, but the setup leans supportive for US equities overall if the limit is raised and used orderly.

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