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B biupa
Biupa
@biupa

行情观点 八月难以看到很多人想象中的大跌 目前有一些声音认为八月将出现大跌,即 $BTC 跌破本区间(58500)并向下继续跌破。我目前认为是难以想象这样的大跌会出现的。 首先刻舟求剑来讲,我们之前看到的四年周期底部在2026年10月5号(参考置顶推文“卧龙演策”)。若四年周期底部理论成立,我们也推导出终极一跌的开始不会早于在四年周期底部的T-30(见2018/2022)。 因此,若四年周期底部理论成立,则终极下跌的开始不会早于9月5号;这意味着八月份是相对安全的。 而场内的另一个声音是终极一跌压根不会出现;若这个观点正确,那么我们更难以看到八月出现大跌。 我认为需要警惕的是整个八月并不出现太强有力的反弹;譬如,在61-65之间震荡,难以再次测试67300及以上。若出现这种情况,则九月份开始终极下跌的概率非常高 对于股票,我也认为反弹没有结束。至少在下周我认为反弹势头将延续。理由是川普TACO+流动性改善+上周四的重要底部事件如Situational Awareness爆仓等。最好情况不排除SP500再次新高(目前仅仅差2%不到) 因此,我认为即使比特币会在下周跌至61000左右(见图2)也不必恐慌,反而是做多的机会。但八月的总体战略是逢高撤退,且战且退,所有人保持进入九月的时候空仓。

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· 30K Views

11 Reposts 2 Quotes 101 Likes 16 Bookmarks
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26 replies collected of 73 X reports
拿住阿牛 @chigua810 ·

@biupa If the interest rate hike is really implemented, does that mean all the bad news has been priced in?

original · zh

@biupa 加息真的落地那是不是利空出尽

1 2
超级幸运星~ @luckybibiw1p ·

@biupa This framework is correct. The safety in August isn't because there's no risk, but because the risk hasn't yet materialized. The rebound window provided by Trump's TACO and improved liquidity does exist, but the strategy of selling on rallies is more reliable than trying to predict the top. Where it rises to isn't important; what matters is that you still have shares when you exit.

original · zh

@biupa 这个框架是对的,八月安全不是因为没风险,是因为风险还没到兑现的时候。川普TACO加流动性改善给的反弹窗口确实存在,但逢高撤退的思路比猜顶更稳。涨到哪不重要,重要的是走的时候你手里还有筹码。

一米 @Crypto_yimi ·

@biupa It's time for my favorite part: market analysis! 🥰🥰

original · zh

@biupa 又到了最喜欢的行情观点环节🥰🥰

1 2
兜兜不会开车🚗 @DoodoMilker ·

@biupa After all this time, you're still sketching scripts.

original · zh

@biupa 兜兜转转还是在素描剧本

1
Rounder @CryptoRounder ·

@biupa Teacher Biupa's deduction is reasonable.

original · zh

@biupa Biupa 老师的推演合理

1 1
Colby Halifax @ColbyHalifax1 ·

@biupa The Strategy of the Crouching Dragon is excellent, I've learned a lot.

original · zh

@biupa 卧龙演策不错,学习了

1 1
小飞哥 @inusKinga ·

@biupa This year has been so boring with Bitcoin, I'd rather stick to stocks.

original · zh

@biupa 大饼今年太无聊了,还是做股票吧

1 1
Smile @wheretogow ·

@biupa Okay, we're all on high alert. We're waiting for B to smash the glass and yell, "It's time!"

original · zh

@biupa 好的,我们所有人已经保持高度戒备的状态了,等b总摔杯,大喊是时候了

1 2
鱼丸测评科学上网软件 @jackws13 ·

@biupa The key is whether the 61-65 range can be broken upwards. We should be cautious in September.

original · zh

@biupa 关键还是看61-65震荡能不能向上突破,九月确实要谨慎。

1
cyberpunk2023 @Alexander22608 ·

@biupa Some recent indicators suggest a major fluctuation is imminent. What's your take on this, Mr. B?

original · zh

@biupa 最近有一些指标表明即将发生大波动,b总怎么看呢

1 2
adam @adam24639143 ·

@biupa August is hard to say

original · zh

@biupa 八月难说

1 2
Carlos guerreiro 1973 @1973Guerreiro ·

@biupa Bitcoin really can't fall any further from this level.

original · zh

@biupa 比特币这位置确实跌不动

1 2
Eden❣️ @RebeccaPrii ·

@biupa Explicitly setting the disciplinary requirement to "retreat on rallies, fight and withdraw step by step, and hold a flat position in September" firmly guards the bottom line of risk control while pursuing trading flexibility.

1 1
孙颖🌸同城丄门♥喝茶选妃 @AnnabelleJlicn ·

@biupa I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🍪😛 I'm not shameless, you'll see!

original · zh

@biupa 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🍪😛我福不黑不信你看

Field @Feiketnoz ·

@biupa Agreed, a significant drop in August requires substantial negative news to drive it, and we don't see that condition right now.

original · zh

@biupa 认同,八月大跌需要实质利空驱动,现在看不到那样的条件

财经悟空 @wukong2021 · 78K

@biupa Even if BTC retraces to around 61,000 next week, it will be a good opportunity to go long. However, overall, we should still sell on rallies and retreat gradually. Stay out of the market in September for stability!

original · zh

@biupa BTC哪怕下周回踩61000左右,反而是做多机会,但整体还是得逢高撤退、且战且退,进九月保持空仓,稳!

1 2
小钰同学 @xy050310 ·

@biupa I'd like to learn from your point of view, teacher~ Could you please follow me? Thank you~

original · zh

@biupa 学习一下老师这个观点~老师可以给我一个关注吗~,谢谢您~

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Tim哥 @timbrobro · 38K

@biupa I hope so. I need to keep a stable mindset in August.

original · zh

@biupa 但愿如此,八月心态还是要稳住。

菜菜不菜 @btc_cai · 30K

@biupa Agreed ✅

original · zh

@biupa 认同✅

1 1
孙颖🌸同城丄门♥喝茶选妃 @AdelaOConnhbxd ·

@biupa I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🎮🍁 I'm not shameless, you'll see!

original · zh

@biupa 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🎮🍁我福不黑不信你看

紫菱 @KittyRaglahzzp ·

@biupa I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🪁🎮 I'm not shady, just look!

original · zh

@biupa 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🪁🎮 我福不黑不信你看

bullace @bullace0225 ·

@biupa Bro, don't be too pessimistic about August.

original · zh

@biupa 兄弟,8月别太悲观

凌乱🔶bnb(减产前囤币版) @lingluan1998 ·

@biupa Let's be friends, teacher

original · zh

@biupa 交个朋友老师

加密币圈比特币【注册送100】 @dimashkaivanov ·

@biupa The idea that August will see the massive market crash many are imagining sounds simple, but it's probably not going to be easy in reality.

original · zh

@biupa 八月难以看到很多人想象中的大跌听着简单,真做起来估计不容易

@biupa Market View

original · ja

@biupa 行情观点

问夏 @LaurelKathvpua ·

@biupa I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 💛😸 I'm not shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@biupa 应该没人比我玩的开了吧💛😸 我福不黑不信你看

2 replies whose parent comment X withheld

cyberpunk2023 @Alexander22608 ·

@biupa Here are some on-chain metrics I saw on Murphy's page. x.com/i/status/208344127741322…

original · zh

@biupa 在墨菲老板这看到的一些链上指标。 https://x.com/i/status/2083441277413229014

1
Biupa @biupa · 25K

@Alexander22608 Pretty good

original · ja

@Alexander22608 挺好的

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