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H ShanghaoJin
Herman Jin
@ShanghaoJin

续: 这是全篇最需要解释的一件事,也是最不需要解释的一件事。不需要解释,是因为答案很简单:因为”我们正在被围堵”这个信念,比事实好用 它解释一切失败——同盟没了,是被围堵;比率吃亏,是被围堵;移民被拒,是被围堵 它免除一切反省——既然对方从一开始就要毁掉我们,那二十一条、山东、西伯利亚就都不必再提了,那是自卫 也是最要命的,它给一切强硬政策发放通行证——反正谈判没有意义,那么剩下的选项就只有一个 承认”英国是因为二十一条才无法再为我们背书”,需要反省。而相信”白人俱乐部从头到尾就没打算接纳我们”,只需要愤怒 一个国家一旦选定了后一种解释,它就再也不需要反省了。所有挫折都成为阴谋的证据,所有妥协都成为内奸的证据 六、于是围堵真的来了 1924年,美国通过移民法,日本人被全面拒之门外。值得注意的是过程。驻美大使埴原正直递交的照会里有”严重后果”一语——本是标准的外交预警,却被美国国会当成恫吓,反而把原本摇摆的票推向了排日条款 日本的强硬姿态,亲手帮着美国排日派通过了日本最恨的那部法律。(历史在一次次循环,近100年后美国又通过了各种针对另一个国家的一系列法案) 这就是日本受迫害妄想的完整闭环:你以为你在抵抗围堵,实际上你在一笔一笔地制造围堵 “被抛弃感”是真实的。“英美合谋”是虚构的——直到日本自己把它变成了真的 一路飘到珍珠港,中间没有一步是被逼的。每一步,都是日本自己在“我们正在被围堵”的信念驱动下,主动往包围圈里走的 七、民粹裹挟国内政治 顺带说一句日本国内政治,1925年日本普选法通过,选民从3m涨到12m。同一年,治安维持法也通过了。选民扩大了,但可以合法讨论的范围反而收窄了 民不可与虑始,而可与乐成 ——《史记·商君列传》 政党内阁于是发现发动民意的一条捷径:不必论证自己的政策更好,只需论证对手更软弱。“币原软弱外交”这五个字,就是政友会打向民政党的选举武器 滑稽而讽刺的是1930年伦敦条约,就是这个利用民粹的政友会,为扳倒浜口内阁,发明了”统帅权干犯”指控。亲手把宪法解释的钥匙递给了军部。浜口在东京车站被枪击。十年后,包括政友会在内的所有政党一起解散 最后说下结局:原敬死于刺客,加藤友三郎死在任上,浜口死于枪伤,币原被骂了一辈子软弱。而那些骂他们的人,最后连自己的党都没保住 八、教训 略… 下一贴说1932年1月28日的上海:华盛顿体制不是死在满洲的荒原上,当着全世界记者的镜头,死在租界边上。而日本在那里第一次发现,上海不是满洲

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6 Reposts 1 Quotes 102 Likes 31 Bookmarks
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17 replies collected of 28 X reports
Sloane @4p87hgrhh2 ·

@ShanghaoJin We've all watched Professor Jin's history lectures, so we can't delay the videos any longer!

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 金老师讲历史我们都看了,视频不能再鸽了哦

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Dodo @EvangelionVinci ·

@ShanghaoJin wrote so well!

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 写的太好了

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Johnn Yu @houfeng1350 ·

@ShanghaoJin It's almost overlapping with modern China!

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 和现代中国快重叠啦!

1
KK K @xcpwxy ·

@ShanghaoJin Are you using historical events to criticize Iran?

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 你是不是在借古说伊朗

1 2
Peter Tung @PeterTung66 ·

@ShanghaoJin I didn't expect you to grasp the essence of history so well. From the Meiji Restoration to Japan's defeat, the two most fundamental psychological foundations of Japan's development were: 1. Representing East Asia; if other East Asian countries didn't proactively pursue civilization, then Japan would help them become civilized. 2. Being surrounded and oppressed, especially after the Great Depression, with factories and rural areas going bankrupt, they followed the military in fighting them!

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 没想到你历史抓本质抓的也超好。明治维新到日本战败这段历史,日本进程最本质的两个心理建设:1.代表东亚,东亚其他国家如果不主动文明,我就帮他文明。2.被围堵被欺压,特别大萧条后,工厂破产农村破产,跟着军部干他丫的!

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カザクリック 尚佳🍎 @Naoka_Qazaqliq ·

@ShanghaoJin Is President Xi's South China Sea strategy also copied from yours?

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 习主席的南海战略是不是也是抄你的

1
Sophie @Sophief211 ·

@ShanghaoJin wrote this very well, accurately reflecting history.

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 写的非常好,还原历史了

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Timmy White @TimmyWhite96008 ·

@ShanghaoJin The Japanese Constitution has too many loopholes. As long as the cabinet cannot meet the military's demands, the military will launch an indefinite resignation of the Ministers of the Army and Navy until a cabinet that can satisfy their appetite comes to power.

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 帝日宪法漏洞太大,只要内阁无法满足军部的要求,军部就发动海陆军大臣无限辞职,直到一个能满足他们胃口的内阁上台。

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ZEN @ZINPOP9 ·

@ShanghaoJin This is why I immigrated; otherwise, Jiabiangou would be welcoming me with open arms. The mainland has always only needed people and mines.

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 这就是我移民的原因,否则夹边沟在夹道欢迎中。大陆从古至今只需要人矿。

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Gary Liu @LGWthe ·

@ShanghaoJin The US's confrontation with Japan didn't begin after World War I, but rather before the Russo-Japanese War was even over! Japan's strength in the Russo-Japanese War shocked the US, and from then on, Japan became America's biggest enemy in the Pacific. The US isn't some moral paragon; it simply felt threatened by Japan's growing power. After all, both countries sought hegemony in the Pacific, and two tigers cannot share one mountain. The US's actions against Japan weren't out of kindness, but because it was pursuing its own hegemony!

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 美国对付日本不是在一战以后,而是在日俄战争还没打完就开始了!日俄战争日本的实力震惊了美国,从此日本成为美国太平洋最大敌人。美国并不是什么道德模范,纯粹就是日本强大起来美国感受到威胁了,毕竟两国都谋求太平洋霸权,一山不容二虎。美国对付日本也不是因为他善良,是因为他在追求自己的霸权!

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Crisp530 @InvidiaIra0530 ·

@ShanghaoJin Did you still manage to post it on x? 😂

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 还是没忍住发到x了吗😂

Dylan @zhuanbull ·

@ShanghaoJin There's really nothing new under the sun.

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 真是天底下没有新鲜事

1
J @J58148850 ·

@ShanghaoJin Misjudging your position is the original sin Only strategic depth can survive every version update

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 摆不正位置是原罪 只有战略纵深才能撑过每一个版本

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红嘴蓝鹊 @lanque300825 ·

@ShanghaoJin Thumbs up! Thumbs up! Love Mr. Jin! (Hopefully this won't cause public outrage)

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 怒赞! 怒赞! 爱金先生!(希望不会引起共愤)

红嘴蓝鹊 @lanque300825 ·

@ShanghaoJin Once a country chooses the latter interpretation, it no longer needs to reflect. Singapore government review - 3.58 million items (This is absolutely not intended to allude to the citizens of the two major powers, China and the US; it's not easy for us small countries to survive in the cracks.) x.com/lanque300825/status/2084…

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 一个国家一旦选定了后一种解释,它就再也不需要反省了。 新加坡政府检讨-358万条 (这里绝没有影射中美2个大国贵民哈,我们小国夹缝中求生存不容易) https://x.com/lanque300825/status/2084173723259797966/photo/1

3 replies whose parent comment X withheld

Gary Liu @LGWthe ·

@ShanghaoJin Of course, Japan deserved to be beaten after its subsequent actions; its populism was outrageously rampant. However, I disagree with the notion that the US and UK were completely innocent and 100% naive in this matter. The Anglo-Japanese alliance was formed because Britain needed a Far Eastern ally to contain Russia, and the Japanese shed countless blood in the process. The US's actions against Japan weren't based on any international morality; it was simply that the two countries were destined to compete for hegemony in the Pacific, regardless of Article 21 or the September 18 Incident.

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 当然后来日本一系列操作活该被揍,民粹疯狂的令人发指。但是我不同意的是说美国与英国在这里面就完全是无辜的,是100%单纯的。英日联盟是英国需要一个远东盟友遏制俄罗斯,日本人在这过程中也流尽了鲜血。美国人对付日本也不是出于什么国际道义,就是两国注定要在太平洋争霸,不管有没有21条或918

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Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin · 89K

@LGWthe You do the first thing, others do the fifteenth. As a weaker nation, you don't have the right to do the first thing; even if others do, you should know how to be tolerant. How can you be so delusional about being persecuted every day? The main reason Britain and the US suppress Japan is actually to protect China. China's good fortune over the past 100 years has been thanks to riding on America's coattails.

original · zh

@LGWthe 你做初一人家做十五,作为弱国本来就没有做初一的权利;哪怕人家做了初一都要知道忍让。何况如此天天受迫害妄想? 英美压制日本大半原因其实还是护中国,中国这100年好的日子就是搭美国车

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Gary Liu @LGWthe ·

@ShanghaoJin The UK and US suppress Japan for their own national interests, how could it be to protect China? As for riding on the US's coattails, isn't that mutual assistance? Didn't the sacrifices and perseverance of the Chinese people in the anti-fascist war earn them their own hard-won gains? Didn't China earn its foreign exchange reserves over the years through countless goods? Would the US simply give money to China for nothing?

original · zh

@ShanghaoJin 英美压制日本是为了自己国家利益吧,怎么可能为了保护中国。至于说搭美国车,这是互相帮助吧,中国人在反法西斯战争的牺牲与坚持不是自己争取的?中国这么多年赚的外汇不是靠一件件商品换的?美国会白白把钱送给中国?

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