看完 Leopold 写给投资人的信,我对这件事的认识比周五看到基金爆仓新闻时更完整一些。几个很重要的事实:基金 7 月净回撤约 67%,年初至今净收益仍约 +80%;它没有关闭或清算,也没有变成只持有私募资产的基金。团队通过大宗交易处置了部分公开市场组合,平掉全部空头,清除所有杠杆,目前剩余股票和期权都不再有保证金追缴风险。
单月亏损 67% 当然说明此前的杠杆和风险管理出了很大问题。但经历如此剧烈的回撤后,基金仍能保持年内正收益,也可以看出此前对 AI 产业和投资机会的判断确实抓住了一些重要趋势。
Leopold 还很年轻,研究能力和产业洞察都很突出。之后把研究能力与仓位、融资和流动性管理结合起来,相信他大概率会东山再起。
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Breaking: Leopold's full letter sent to his LPs last night
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund fell 67% in July but remains up 80% YTD and he announced he'll keep investing in public equities https://x.com/LeopoldTracker_/status/2083229189851762782/photo/1
@LucyBuilding Lucy said, "He'll make a comeback once he combines research and risk control." This statement actually represents the biggest hurdle that all top investors must overcome—they don't lack research capabilities, but rather the discipline to manage their positions. Leopold paid a hefty price for this lesson, but whether he can truly learn from it depends on whether he can first learn to simplify his portfolio, rather than rushing to turn things around.
@LucyBuilding Leopold's experience is very compelling, but survivor bias exists: intellectual maturity does not necessarily mean emotional and social maturity
x.com/alphahunter000/status/20…
@LucyBuilding What can ordinary investors learn from this event?
Don't blindly follow star funds, avoid leverage, manage liquidity, and maintain a cash position.
@LucyBuilding If all current positions are long, and all are in small- to mid-cap AI stocks, then there's no possibility of a comeback. The AI bubble has already burst, and these small- to mid-cap AI stocks will plummet by 90%.
@LucyBuilding What I truly admire about Leopold isn't just his insightful analysis of the AI field, but also his courage to go all in and his rational, clear-headed decision to cut losses when things get out of control. x.com/otmatm/status/2083527488…
@LucyBuilding Leopold If it were your own money, losing 67% while still having a total account year-over-year increase of +80% would be excellent, but as a fund, it's very unacceptable. Losing 67% before having to cut losses—did you have no risk management and just stubbornly hold on for so long? Didn't you have any cash on hand and still have to ask investors for money? There are always these "miracle stories" every year, but those who have been in the market for a while know they're just pigs catching the wind in a bull market.