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L LucyBuilding
Lucy L.
@LucyBuilding

看完 Leopold 写给投资人的信,我对这件事的认识比周五看到基金爆仓新闻时更完整一些。几个很重要的事实:基金 7 月净回撤约 67%,年初至今净收益仍约 +80%;它没有关闭或清算,也没有变成只持有私募资产的基金。团队通过大宗交易处置了部分公开市场组合,平掉全部空头,清除所有杠杆,目前剩余股票和期权都不再有保证金追缴风险。 单月亏损 67% 当然说明此前的杠杆和风险管理出了很大问题。但经历如此剧烈的回撤后,基金仍能保持年内正收益,也可以看出此前对 AI 产业和投资机会的判断确实抓住了一些重要趋势。 Leopold 还很年轻,研究能力和产业洞察都很突出。之后把研究能力与仓位、融资和流动性管理结合起来,相信他大概率会东山再起。

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Breaking: Leopold's full letter sent to his LPs last night Leopold Aschenbrenner’s fund fell 67% in July but remains up 80% YTD and he announced he'll keep investing in public equities https://x.com/LeopoldTracker_/status/2083229189851762782/photo/1

· 22K Views

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21 replies collected of 41 X reports
莫比乌斯 @dadagejb788 ·

@LucyBuilding Will the capital market keep giving us opportunities again and again?

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 资本市场会一而再再而三的给机会吗?

1
Momo @NasdaqMomo ·

@LucyBuilding Fun Fact: After losing 67%, it needs to rise 203% to break even.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 冷知识: 亏67%以后要涨203%才能回本

1 3
超级幸运星~ @luckybibiw1p ·

@LucyBuilding Lucy said, "He'll make a comeback once he combines research and risk control." This statement actually represents the biggest hurdle that all top investors must overcome—they don't lack research capabilities, but rather the discipline to manage their positions. Leopold paid a hefty price for this lesson, but whether he can truly learn from it depends on whether he can first learn to simplify his portfolio, rather than rushing to turn things around.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding Lucy说“等他把研究和风控结合起来会东山再起”,这句话其实是所有顶级投资人要跨的最大门槛——研究能力不缺,缺的是能管住仓位的纪律。Leopold这把学费交得够贵,但能不能真正学到,看的是接下来他能不能先学会做减法,而不是急着翻盘。

daniel @daniel_praguepp ·

@LucyBuilding Times have changed. We should wait for the US stock market to recover before entering the market.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 时过境迁。要等美股恢复健康再进场了

1 1
落英🌸 @WinifredFuppct ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🍮🏆 My luck isn't bad, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🍮🏆 我福不黑不信你看

Alpha捕手 @alphahunter000 ·

@LucyBuilding Leopold's experience is very compelling, but survivor bias exists: intellectual maturity does not necessarily mean emotional and social maturity x.com/alphahunter000/status/20…

original · zh

@LucyBuilding Leopold的经历很有说服力,但也存在幸存者偏差:智力成熟不一定意味着情绪和社交同样成熟 https://x.com/alphahunter000/status/2083761620506099786

CryptoTrix @CryptoTrix1 ·

@LucyBuilding What can ordinary investors learn from this event? Don't blindly follow star funds, avoid leverage, manage liquidity, and maintain a cash position.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 普通投资者从这次事件能学到什么? 不要盲目跟明星基金,不加杠杆、流动性管理,要有现金仓位

紫菱🌸 @DanaDickenhequ ·

@LucyBuilding I'm so cheesy 🤣🌯 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 我果然太涩了🤣🌯有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

前程锦绣 @kptcl19710301 ·

@LucyBuilding If all current positions are long, and all are in small- to mid-cap AI stocks, then there's no possibility of a comeback. The AI ​​bubble has already burst, and these small- to mid-cap AI stocks will plummet by 90%.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 如果就以目前的全部是多头仓位 并且都是中小盘AI股的话 没有东山再起的可能性了 AI泡沫已经爆破 这些中小型AI股会暴跌90%

语柳🌸 @DianaHubbajbkl ·

@LucyBuilding I'm so cheesy 🫐💚 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 我果然太涩了🫐💚有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

琳琅🌸 @SusannaBensnt2 ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 👐🌜 I'm not shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧👐🌜 我福不黑不信你看

提款机 @OtmAtm · 14K

@LucyBuilding What I truly admire about Leopold isn't just his insightful analysis of the AI ​​field, but also his courage to go all in and his rational, clear-headed decision to cut losses when things get out of control. x.com/otmatm/status/2083527488…

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 款哥真正敬佩Leopold的,不只是看准AI赛道的洞察,更是敢于All in的勇气,也敢在失控时果断止损的理智清醒。https://x.com/otmatm/status/2083527488987414530?s=46

1
书瑶🌸 @EstherTylenuyq ·

@LucyBuilding I'm so cheesy 🥑🤪 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 我果然太涩了🥑🤪有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

冰薇 @WinniGrantrf3y ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🐌🥌 I'm not shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🐌🥌 我福不黑不信你看

冰枫 @DoraGroteax7e ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🍰🏓 I'm not shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🍰🏓 我福不黑不信你看

夜蕾🌸 @DominicRosfaqx ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me ❤️🪇 I'm not as unlucky as you think, just look!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧❤️🪇 我福不黑不信你看

忆秋 @JoanneSawy49fn ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🫗🕯️ I'm not shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🫗🕯️ 我福不黑不信你看

幻丝 @JoCissiee59h ·

@LucyBuilding I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🧀☃️ I'm not being shady, you'll see!

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🧀☃️ 我福不黑不信你看

从寒🌸 @BelindaPegrmup ·

@LucyBuilding I'm so cheesy 🏃🥟 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 我果然太涩了🏃🥟有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

Jenny @L966748 ·

@LucyBuilding Leopold If it were your own money, losing 67% while still having a total account year-over-year increase of +80% would be excellent, but as a fund, it's very unacceptable. Losing 67% before having to cut losses—did you have no risk management and just stubbornly hold on for so long? Didn't you have any cash on hand and still have to ask investors for money? There are always these "miracle stories" every year, but those who have been in the market for a while know they're just pigs catching the wind in a bull market.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding Leopold如果是自己的钱 亏67% 总账户YTD还是+80%那是很优秀 但是作为基金那是很不合格了 亏了67%才不得不砍仓 你特么之前那么长一段时间没风控硬抗吗 手上没留现金还要找投资人要钱 年年都有神话 在市场久了就知道都是牛市里踩中风口的猪

Give me Five @givemef08831586 ·

@LucyBuilding Not falling doesn't mean it's "rising again" 🤔😂😎

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 没倒也就不是“再起”🤔😂😎

1 replies whose parent comment X withheld

Momo @NasdaqMomo ·

@LucyBuilding is still amazing.

original · zh

@LucyBuilding 依然还是很厉害

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