Skip to content
Archive

Post

Back to deliverables

M Michaelzsguo
Michael Guo
@Michaelzsguo

台上的人,就是最近因四倍杠杆反噬、450亿美元基金一夜爆仓的 Leopold Aschenbrenner。 Leopold 出生于德国,15 岁才来到美国,后来以少年天才的身份进入哥伦比亚大学。 这场演讲发生在 2016 年 11 月的德国绿党全国党代会上。当时他只有 14 岁左右,是绿党青年组织成员,也是代表 Steglitz-Zehlendorf 参会的党代表。 14 岁的他已经在讨论: • 自动化如何掏空中产阶级和工人阶级 • 无人驾驶如何威胁近 200 万人的生计 • 经济停滞如何把选民推向 Trump、Brexit 和 AfD • 为什么社会需要 UBI,为人们保留尊严和选择 你可以不同意他的绿党政治立场和 UBI 主张。但很早以前,他就已经开始把技术进步视为一个同时涉及就业、政治和国家能力的问题。这条思考线索,后来几乎贯穿了他的全部经历。 进入哥大后,他共同创立了 Effective Altruism 校园组织;毕业后加入 OpenAI 的 Superalignment 团队;离开 OpenAI 后写出《Situational Awareness》,系统阐述 AGI 将如何重塑经济、能源和地缘政治;随后又成立同名基金,把这套判断变成真金白银的市场押注。

@

惊天大瓜。 AI 股神 Leopold 这两天上演了一出真正的“白天清仓,周末结婚”。 他旗下的 Situational Awareness 因重仓 AI、最高约4倍杠杆反噬,被迫把大部分公开股票仓位卖给 Citadel。基金规模一度冲到约450亿美元,如今交易完成后只剩约100亿美元的资产账本。 但再大的华尔街事故,也挡不住人生大事。这个周末,Leopold 就要结婚了。 新娘也不是别人,正是 Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei 的幕僚长 Avital Balwit,也是 Dario 唯一的直属下属。 基金可以清仓,婚礼不能延期。 毕竟新婚大喜面前,几百亿美元的起起落落,也不过是工作上的一点小波折。🙂

· 484K Views

115 Reposts 22 Quotes 918 Likes 820 Bookmarks
replies reposts likes
52 replies collected of 63 X reports
Michael Guo @Michaelzsguo ·

Think about what you were doing when you were 14 years old 😂

original · zh

想想自己14岁的时候在干嘛呢😂

1 12
Franco哥哥(孙宇晨门徒) @Francobigbro ·

@Michaelzsguo Holy crap, that's awesome!

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 卧槽太牛逼了

1 2
Jenny @L966748 ·

@Michaelzsguo But macro trading and short-term trading are two completely different things. Even if he's right, the market will still prove him wrong. Being a genius doesn't mean you can do everything right.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 但是宏观交易和短期交易本来就两回事 他就算看对了 一样会被市场打脸 天才不代表什么都做得对

1 6
Scrooge McDuck @S_McDuck_42 ·

@Michaelzsguo Well to make it short - he fucked it up then. He fucked it up now.

3
fishmemory @LiqunLiu5 ·

@Michaelzsguo This isn't a genius, he's a complete idiot. And he has homosexual tendencies.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 这不是天才,是个纯傻逼。并且有同性恋倾向

4
eddie chang @eddie5171779 ·

@Michaelzsguo Even geniuses are educated by the system into naive and innocent leftists. Everyone encounters their own socialist iron fist on their path to adulthood.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 天才也被体制教育成傻白甜的左派。每个人成长的路上都会遇到自己的社会主义铁拳

6
硅谷开挖掘机(SV_Digger) @SV_Digger ·

@Michaelzsguo This guy's passionate speech has the flair of a head of state ☺️

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 小哥发言的激情 有元首的风范☺️

3 6
NMS TRADER @NMSTRADER ·

@Michaelzsguo When you listen to him speak now, you almost think he was born in the US. His English sounds like he was born in the United States

1 2
Pignokor @xfeng06801768 ·

@Michaelzsguo The more you learn, the more mistakes you make; the more you learn, the more mistakes you make, yet you think you're incredibly smart.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 学的越多 错的越多 越学越错 还以为自己聪明绝顶

1
MaYo @sosolab13 ·

@Michaelzsguo shouted Green Party slogans at 14, and lost 45 billion yuan with 4x leverage at 32. Political correctness can't save mathematics.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 14岁喊绿党口号,32岁四倍杠杆爆仓450亿,政治正确救不了数学。

2
Narwhalosaur @narwhalosaur ·

@Michaelzsguo Great insights, just keep any money you don’t want zeroed out far from the insanity

WallStWolfdog @WallStWolfdog ·

@Michaelzsguo This flavor is just right.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 这个味道太对了

1
SK @Samking207 ·

@Michaelzsguo I keep hearing Fuhrer

SirTomasRosicky @SirTomasRosicky ·

@Michaelzsguo Generational mind.

_Apollo_ @Apollo16A ·

@Michaelzsguo If motion was a person

1
SendItExpress @HighEndShitcoin ·

@Michaelzsguo This could have been Greta. She missed her opp to be compromised and go for the $.

1
lucy1 @hcv5TUMtNeO9L8E ·

@Michaelzsguo You envy this person too? What are you lacking?

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 这人你也羡慕?你是缺啥呢

1
Kevin @kelvinPng1 ·

@Michaelzsguo This big liar, when he loses, it's someone else's loss, when he wins, it's his own, just like Sister Wood.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 大忽悠 亏了是他人的 赢了是自己的 跟木头姐一样

2
1024.com @1024com_ ·

@Michaelzsguo Mind blowing but legendary

shrine79 @shrine791 ·

@Michaelzsguo Germany, speech, workers, livelihood, UBI. Is the Führer reincarnated?

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 德国,演讲,工人,生计,UBI。 元首转世啦?

1
Dirτy Waτer Degen e/acc/dd 🟧 @DirtyWaterDegen ·

@Michaelzsguo German sounds like someone aggressively clearing their throat while barking commands at a disobedient piece of furniture. Low key wondering what the Hitler speeches might’ve sounded like in French now.

🇺🇸AICapitalWatch🦅 @AICapitalWatch ·

@Michaelzsguo is quite a genius, so young!

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 也算是天才了,这么年轻!

Noel and Bel🇨🇦🇪🇨 @NoelNxb87408723 ·

@Michaelzsguo Bullshit. He just brings out all the clichés. He gets attention because he's young, but does getting attention mean he's good enough?

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 屁他就是把所有的clichés拿出来,能获得关注是因为他年轻,而且关注就说明他水准够吗?

1
Freedom 2 Fart @Freedom2Fart · 44K

@Michaelzsguo I heard him say Trump.

Michael Guo @Michaelzsguo ·

Leopold's fiancée is also very outstanding.

original · zh

Leopold的未婚妻也非常优秀

3
LeftistCrusher @Leftist_Crusher ·

@Michaelzsguo massive nazi clown

1
🇨🇦🚀橘子哥 @CHRIS_OM9 ·

@Michaelzsguo I feel his abilities far surpass Ultraman Sam's.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 感觉能力远超山姆奥特曼

2
Fred @GAL4_sixteen ·

@Michaelzsguo In 2016 i was starting my neurology residency, I had already completed a Phd in neuroscience. No body gave a shit about my great ideas, this whole wunder kid shtick has become a recent trend. Starting with zuck, followed by a SBF, now this Jew. Notice the pattern yet?

twetty @twetty74098825 ·

@Michaelzsguo Too arrogant for a young man who has achieved success.

original · ja

@Michaelzsguo 少年得志太猖狂

很好吃 @ned714 ·

@Michaelzsguo I advise you to be a bit dumber. There's no need to live too shrewdly. It's very painful.

sterilized objectivity @AutoDiddakt ·

@Michaelzsguo He’s just a globalist libtard plant.

美股金虫哥 @SpermCapital ·

@Michaelzsguo, at 14, fiercely criticized the entrenched middle class at a Party Congress; at 24, he became a digital elite but still suffered a setback. This rollercoaster of a life is truly textbook-worthy. x.com/SpermCapital/status/2083…

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 14岁在党代会上痛批中产固化,24岁自己成了数字精英还翻车,这波“起落”属实教科书级别 https://x.com/SpermCapital/status/2083734903460626653

1
Cyber · 鹅道长 @TeaBizen ·

@Michaelzsguo The AI ​​prodigy being targeted by a Wall Street veteran will be an inevitable pain in his transformation into a real man! x.com/TeaBizen/status/20837417…

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo AI金童被华尔街老炮狙击将是他蜕变为真男人的必经之痛! https://x.com/TeaBizen/status/2083741749584015636/photo/1

2
ErezT @ml_yearzero ·

@Michaelzsguo I carry this pre-disposition towards liberals/socialist democrats/progressives/green... They all carry the same narrative; usually it all originates from some sort of chronic weakness. I can go on.

Jolin@NodeXX @Jolin612 ·

@Michaelzsguo Many people laugh at him for being a "naive and innocent leftist" in his early years, but what is more noteworthy is that a person who truly thinks about technology as a "systemic shock" will eventually choose to verify his judgment with real money, rather than remaining forever in the realm of slogans.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 很多人笑他早年是“傻白甜左派”,但更值得注意的是:一个真正把技术当成“系统性冲击”来思考的人,最后会选择用真金白银去验证自己的判断,而不是永远停在口号里。

3
tiny @cherish_invest ·

@Michaelzsguo The last person who actively claimed to be an Effective Altruist also lost everything and is in jail for suspected fraud.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 上一个积极号称Effective Altruism的也爆仓了,涉嫌欺诈在监狱里

1 7
gentlemen @qzwcvbn ·

@Michaelzsguo They didn't experience a margin call, they just had their positions liquidated and their profits were just pulled back.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 人家哪里爆仓了,只不过平仓了,收益回调而已

Si @geetfun ·

@Michaelzsguo This generation’s Elizabeth Holmes.

azoz @AzozPgdh26dwwm ·

@Michaelzsguo Failure

original · ar

@Michaelzsguo فاشل

witever witever @WWitever13375 ·

@Michaelzsguo He looked like a little Nazi

Andrew Hung  @raikk61 ·

@Michaelzsguo 是被OpenAI開除,不是自己離開,人品可疑~

August van Caleb @AugustvanCaleb ·

@Michaelzsguo Different social backgrounds lead to different ways of thinking.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 社会背景不一样,思考的东西也不一样

1
aurora @leemac8866 ·

@Michaelzsguo is still pretty awesome.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 还是很牛 b 的

Corey Creek @SuperCLCreek ·

@Michaelzsguo Decade of Merkel policies and other Progressive policies was going pivot to the right. Not just economics but important social changes in 5 years pushed voters easily predictably to the right.

Vixentory @vixentory ·

@Michaelzsguo Da Ming 1566 "If you want to defy the emperor, who can a seventh-rank official like you defy? The reason you can do things that shake the court in Zhejiang is because you have someone behind you who wants to shake the court."

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 大明1566 "要抗上,你一个七品抗得过谁啊?在浙江你能做些事震动朝廷,那是因为你背后有人要震动朝廷"

1
烟波 Yanbo🍡@🇳🇵 @yanbo2004 ·

@Michaelzsguo So ahead of its time!

original · ja

@Michaelzsguo 好超前啊

1
CryptoZ @fengerge ·

@Michaelzsguo How much experience does a 14-year-old have? Imagining social problems out of thin air.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 14岁有多少阅历? 凭空想象社会问题

提款机 @OtmAtm · 14K

@Michaelzsguo What I truly admire about Leopold isn't just his insightful analysis of the AI ​​field, but also his courage to go all in and his rational, clear-headed decision to cut losses when things get out of control. x.com/otmatm/status/2083527488…

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 款哥真正敬佩Leopold的,不只是看准AI赛道的洞察,更是敢于All in的勇气,也敢在失控时果断止损的理智清醒。https://x.com/otmatm/status/2083527488987414530?s=46

1
KoeVoet Tex @KoevoetTex ·

@Michaelzsguo Resigned from FTC the day before they got caught Lost billions in 5 days Lost his whole fund Married a lady from anthropic Sounds like a fraud like FTX

1

1 replies whose parent comment X withheld

Jenny @L966748 ·

@Michaelzsguo It's hard to say... There's no shortage of genius traders on Wall Street. But fame can be a double-edged sword. With such a large sum of money, it's possible that he'd be targeted by counterparties, and later investors might start demanding withdrawals due to losses. He lacks all that experience in money management.

original · zh

@Michaelzsguo 难说…天才交易员华尔街也不缺 人怕出名猪怕壮 这么大资金规模 被对手盘研究盯上了 后期进来的投资人亏损开始要求撤资都是可能的 这些资金管理经验他都没有

These were collected in full; the comment they answer was not returned by X.