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formnoshape
@formnoshape

【熊市抄底】比特币已跌入“非常便宜”区间,长线投资者可以买了!强烈推荐收藏!个人用200周均线及延伸线,制作比特币价格区间图,分为非常便宜区、便宜区、合理区、昂贵区、非常昂贵区。200周均线以下是非常便宜区。历史上 BTC 跌破 200 周均线是胜率 100% 的“世代底部”信号,拿住 1–2 年反弹涨幅至少 3.7 倍,但下方通常伴随 10-30%诱空与数月磨底期,适合现货分批布局,严禁高倍杠杆。 本图操作方法:非常便宜区,定投或分批现货买入;合理区,分批止盈;昂贵区,止盈大部分;非常昂贵区,全部清仓或做空。这张比特币价格区间图,个人会持续动态更新,大家也可以利用tradingview自己制作。 本人交易思路转变:从去年10月底到现在,个人思路是高空为主,低多为辅。现在以200周均线为分界线,只要大饼在200周均线以下的非常便宜区,个人短线交易思路为高空均等,即做空做多大饼仓位倍数均等。等待熊市底部真正确立后,个人交易思路会转变为低多为主,高空为辅。 当前大饼价格6.3w,处于200周均线以下,在非常便宜区间。一旦价格跌破非常便宜区区间,个人开启定投比特币现货、以太坊现货,且越跌越买。这个位置个人不认为是铁底,且小周期谷底8月下旬,大周期谷底9-10月左右。这两个时机依然是加仓现货好机会。大周期pitchfork红色中线支撑位在5.5w附近,这里个人会大仓位博多。极端情况(若有黑天鹅),价格可能下破到4w多。所以,个人也准备足够现金应对黑天鹅出现的抄底机会。 个人理解很多人的不理解,但从长线角度来看,200周均线以下分批买入现货是最稳妥的盈利方式。另外强调长线投资和合约操作是独立交易,个人空单策略目前没有任何改变! ⭐️独立思考,不构成交易建议!

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50 Reposts 2 Quotes 196 Likes 76 Bookmarks
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70 replies collected of 115 X reports
PETPAPA 狗爹 @sunyangxianyan ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing

original · zh

@formnoshape 谢谢分享

Cy @Cygifx ·

@formnoshape First hahaha

original · ja

@formnoshape 第一哈哈哈

1

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing, Brother Xiang. I'm starting a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) now.

original · zh

@formnoshape 谢谢相哥分享 现在开始定投定投

1 1
zouch @ZaiBu48639 ·

@formnoshape Start your fixed investment plan!

original · ja

@formnoshape 开始定投!

1
社恐大烤鱼|买美股上币安 @skdky_0xzero ·

@formnoshape Long-term investing weathered the bear market 👍

original · zh

@formnoshape 长线投资熬过熊市👍

1
觉等死了再睡(币圈) @Runninghogogo ·

@formnoshape Finally, a Bitcoin episode! Brother Xiang!!!

original · zh

@formnoshape 总算有一期比特币的了!相哥!!!

1
Henry @Henryinhigher ·
@HEUYL2ctYF7069 ·

@formnoshape Small buy

original · ja

@formnoshape 小小买入

达尔思 @Sz3grV0C5lWzWYP ·

@formnoshape A double win on both the long and short sides, Xiang Ge is too strong!

original · zh

@formnoshape 多空双吃,相哥太强

1
怀念。 @dalong1124 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing, Xiang Ge! The 200-week moving average is indeed a classic indicator. I'm starting to slowly invest in it now. 👍🏻

original · zh

@formnoshape 谢谢相哥分享!200周均线这个指标确实经典,现在开始慢慢定投了👍🏻

1
达文西 @wilngzhng1 ·

@formnoshape Too many people are waiting for the bottom of the major cycle.

original · ja

@formnoshape 太多人等大周期谷底

Putri ♠️🀄♣️ @0xmandaaa ·

@formnoshape Your thinking is clear, thank you for the analysis.

original · zh

@formnoshape 思路清晰,感谢分析。

elisa🌙 @dashuaishuai888 ·

@formnoshape May I ask if it's possible to do regular investment in gold now? 😄

original · zh

@formnoshape 请问相大大黄金可以定投了吗😄

豚大王 @chengguanxix ·

@formnoshape is here! Support!

original · zh

@formnoshape 来啦来啦!支持

Bertha @Fleur730 ·

@formnoshape Great! With this new perspective, it's time to organize our previous long and short positions.

original · zh

@formnoshape 赞~~~有了新的思路 该把之前的多空都整理一下了

1
Heyadau @mobius10212 ·

@formnoshape I can't say I'll always make money with Brother Xiang, but I've definitely learned a lot of the basics.

original · zh

@formnoshape 跟相哥不能说永赚吧但真的学了蛮多基础

1
风中浪客 @xiexieyixin ·

@formnoshape It's true that the success rate is higher below the 200-week moving average, but when that time really comes, will you still have the funds to buy at the bottom? Don't just talk the talk.

original · zh

@formnoshape 200周线以下确实胜率高,但真到了那时候你还有子弹抄底吗?别又变成嘴炮。

1
GM.btc @maguozhen1990 ·

@formnoshape Xiang Zong is awesome

original · zh

@formnoshape 相总牛逼

Lucky小幸运 @0xiaoxingyk9gc ·

@formnoshape It's okay to let it settle for a while.

original · ja

@formnoshape 沉淀一下可以的

1

@formnoshape I started dollar-cost averaging back in my 50s 😁

original · zh

@formnoshape 5字头的时候定投已经开始😁

1
Hh @Hh3oth ·

@formnoshape Brother Xiang, you mentioned that the next minor cycle peak for silver is in early to mid-August. However, it's facing strong resistance in the 68-78 range. Will it arrive in August?

original · zh

@formnoshape 相哥,您说的白银下一个小周期波峰在8月上中旬。但受强阻力区间68-78压制。8月会迎来吗

1
simontu @9eHViwOV6K49129 ·

@formnoshape Master Xiang, should we still wait for a rebound to the resistance zone of 6.8–7.2 before shorting?

original · zh

@formnoshape 相神,空单策略还是等反弹到阻力区6.8–7.2做空吗?

1 1
ableaaaa|买美股上币安 @Able87666 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing, Xiang Ge. I also think this position is about right. Without a black swan event, it's unlikely to see a major bottom like in the past.

original · zh

@formnoshape 感谢相哥分享,这个位置我也觉得差不多了,没有黑天鹅很难出现以往的大底

1
羊包子 @long242810 ·

@formnoshape I'm just afraid that if I buy now, the price will drop and I won't be able to hold onto it.

original · zh

@formnoshape 唉就怕现在买了到时候下跌拿不住

1
森焱 @senyan8723 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing, Xiang Ge! I'll keep up!

original · ja

@formnoshape 感谢 相哥分享 跟上跟上

1
大米饭🍚 @johnvpkw ·

@formnoshape Layout together

original · ja

@formnoshape 一起布局

Belinda @Caner96262044 ·

@formnoshape 200-week MA is a solid signal, but be ready to hold 1-2 years.

1
Crypted K。互fo @fveswvojk066829 ·

@formnoshape It's true that the historical success rate is higher below the 200-week moving average, but you said there's still a 10-30% chance of a false breakout below. Wouldn't someone entering at 63,000 now also have to withstand a 30% pullback? I was stuck for half a year last time I tried to buy the dip; it's much safer to buy in batches.

original · zh

@formnoshape 200周均线以下确实历史胜率高,但你说下方还有10-30%诱空,那现在6.3w入场不也得扛个30%回撤?我上次抄底就套了半年,还是分批稳

1
芷蕾 @OpheliaNixegsd ·

@formnoshape I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 😇🍊 I'm not shameless, you'll see!

original · zh

@formnoshape 应该没人比我玩的开了吧😇🍊 我福不黑不信你看

PZzang @PZzangcm6t ·

@formnoshape Thanks to Brother Xiang for sharing the dollar-cost averaging strategy for free!

original · zh

@formnoshape 定投定投 感谢相哥无偿分享!

1

@formnoshape This line is indeed worth referring to. Taking spot goods in batches is much more reliable than guessing the bottom.

original · zh

@formnoshape 这条线确实值得参考,分批拿现货比瞎猜底稳多了。

1
币圈 . 麻辣烫 @Skyn2026 ·

@formnoshape I also believed in the 200-week moving average last time, and it dropped 20% after I bought it, but I did make a profit after holding it for a year. But can $55,000 really hold?

original · zh

@formnoshape 我上次也信了200周线,结果买了还跌20%,但拿一年确实赚了,不过5.5w真的能撑住吗

1
Liz荔枝 @Liz3300330 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing 🙏

original · zh

@formnoshape 感谢分享🙏

半杯威士忌🥃 @Wisky1085724 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing, Xiang Ge! A very insightful and well-written article!

original · zh

@formnoshape 感谢相哥分享!深度好文!

1
daisyness @wWNLpgsYLhjq3Qw ·

@formnoshape Taking notes 📝

original · zh

@formnoshape 记笔记📝

lin ju n @lin_n49379 ·

@formnoshape Follow the main group

original · zh

@formnoshape 紧跟大部队

1
加密币圈比特币【注册送100】 @dimashkaivanov ·

@formnoshape The section I most agree with is divided into very cheap, cheap, reasonable, expensive, and very expensive zones.

original · zh

@formnoshape 这条里我最认同的是分为非常便宜区、便宜区、合理区、昂贵区、非常昂贵区

1
@GKSEiyguJk5337 ·

@formnoshape Brother Xiang, do you have any plans to invest in CRCL, MSTR, and COIN? Are you waiting for the Bitcoin bull market to be confirmed before buying these cryptocurrencies?

original · zh

@formnoshape 相哥,CRCL、MSTR、COIN这些币股有操作计划吗,是等大饼牛市确认启动后再入手这些币股吗?

1
Ethan @Ethan140474 ·

@formnoshape The 200-week moving average is a good macro thermometer, but "generational bottoms" are only known in hindsight. When the price actually breaks through, you'll only question your existence. Building a position in stages is more dignified than going all in at once.

original · zh

@formnoshape 200周均线是不错的宏观温度计,但“世代底部”都是事后才知道,真跌穿的时候你只会怀疑人生。分批建仓比一把梭体面。

1
碧秋🌸 @WinniYonngnrhq ·

@formnoshape I'm so horny 🎉🐝 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@formnoshape 我果然太涩了🎉🐝有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

碧莹 @SophiaTenneqkh ·

@formnoshape I'm so horny 🍬🎐 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@formnoshape 我果然太涩了🍬🎐有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

缀|Ultiverse⚡️🐑 @kQDk96jFmD5uJf8 ·

@formnoshape Segmenting is the safest approach; you don't have to rush in all your funds at once, and you have a buffer period!

original · zh

@formnoshape 分批最稳,资金不用一股脑冲进去,还有缓冲时间!

1
安筠 @RubyYuleetax ·

@formnoshape I bet nobody's more adventurous than me ⚽✋ I'm not shady, just look!

original · zh

@formnoshape 应该没人比我玩的开了吧⚽✋ 我福不黑不信你看

eth Ming @BNB776 ·

@formnoshape You're calling 30,000 a very cheap price, but there are still 55,000 and 40,000+ below the 200-week moving average waiting in the wings. This isn't bottom-fishing, it's catching a falling knife. Are you planning to buy in in several batches?

original · zh

@formnoshape 3w就喊非常便宜,可200周均线下方还有5.5w和4w多等着,这不叫抄底叫接刀吧,你打算分几批进

1
元风🌸 @LorraineMomj9j ·

@formnoshape I'm so horny 🐻📚 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@formnoshape 我果然太涩了🐻📚有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

钟离 @zhngl144503 ·

@formnoshape On one hand, you say that the bottom of 200 weeks is the generation bottom, while on the other hand, you keep your short positions unchanged. Isn't this just making money from both sides by buying the bottom on the left and shorting on the right? Do you really think you are a perpetual motion machine?

original · zh

@formnoshape 一边说200周以下是世代底部,一边空单不变,这不就是左边抄底右边做空两头赚嘛,真当自己是永动机了?

1
Florence❄️ @FloRence_FTT ·

@formnoshape Everyone wants to buy at the bottom, but when BTC actually hits the 'extremely cheap' zone, fear paralyzes them. Time to be greedy!

WorldPeace天下太平 @WorldPeace_520 ·

@formnoshape It will fall further.

original · zh

@formnoshape 还要跌

Jk.btc @JackNg9911 ·

@formnoshape Here's something disheartening: currently, the market for 2026-2027 is still dominated by AI stocks attracting funds. Only after this hype dies down will crypto and gold/silver experience a bull market. Therefore, the rise in 2027 is just a rebound.

original · zh

@formnoshape 说个让人伤心的事,目前26~27年市场依然是AI类股在吸资金,只有过了这个风头,加密和金银才会有牛市,所以27年的上涨也只是反弹。

LIN @LIN1458896 ·

@formnoshape Thanks for sharing!

original · zh

@formnoshape 感谢分享!

1

3 replies whose parent comment X withheld

觉等死了再睡(币圈) @Runninghogogo ·

@formnoshape Someone will always see this, like me, Brother Xiang. You can post it once or twice in the middle, just to give a general direction.

original · zh

@formnoshape 总会有人看的,比如说我,相哥,你可以中途发那么一两次,给个大概的方向就行

simontu @9eHViwOV6K49129 ·

@formnoshape Okay

original · ja

@formnoshape 好的

starlight @z87007725 ·

@formnoshape Yes, a significant drop below that level would cause panic among most market participants, but the market often acts contrary to human nature.

original · zh

@formnoshape 是的,真的跌破会引起市场上大部分人的恐慌,但是市场往往都是反人性

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