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C weichonginsight
Chong Wei 韦冲
@weichonginsight

曾经那个写出AI圣经的人,这下真的爆仓了,而且只用了6天。 利奥波德·阿申布伦纳(Leopold Aschenbrenner),19岁从哥伦比亚大学毕业后加入OpenAI。2024年,他写出长文《情境感知》(Situational Awareness),把算力、电力、芯片、数据中心这些AI发展的底层瓶颈讲得极其透彻。 这篇文章让他一夜成名,硅谷大佬纷纷排队给他投钱。基金从2.25亿美元起步,用了不到两年时间冲到450亿美元规模,净收益一度高达439%。这年他才24岁,被华尔街称为AI先知。 但反转来得极快。就在7月24日,他还在给投资人的信里说,这是2025年以来最好的买点,希望大家8月1日继续追加资金。结果他没能等到8月1日。 7月中下旬,AI基建股集体下跌超过30%,而他做空的软件股又反向上涨——多头亏、空头也亏。基金杠杆一度高达4倍,高盛、摩根大通、美国银行三大券商相继发出追加保证金通知,资金链撑不住了。7月30日,基金被迫将整个公开股票组合多空头一次性打包卖了,规模从450亿美元跌至约100亿美元左右。据称基金总亏损大约200亿美元,合1400亿人民币。 从2亿美元到240亿美元,他只用了不到两年。从240亿到清仓更快,只用了六天。 他大概率没有看错AI这个方向,只是没能等到兑现的那一天。产业的兑现是按年计算的,但杠杆是按天算的。投资里,方向对只是第一道题。仓位、杠杆,以及你到底能撑多久,才决定你最后有没有资格继续留在牌桌上。 不知Leopold现在还能笑得出来吗?两年好不容易赚了400亿美金,结果几天全亏没了。

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5 replies collected of 6 X reports
乔巴的吃瓜笔记 @wobuliangren ·

@weichonginsight He's getting married.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 他准备结婚了

1 1
马红梅(X上最性感的人) @muhanmode123 ·

@weichonginsight There's no way around it, the end result for a gambler is a margin call.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 那没办法 赌狗的结局就是爆仓

1
宝爱金豆 @longtian168 ·

@weichonginsight I don't know if it's really almost over, but this roller coaster was still pretty intense.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 不知道是不是真的快没了,但是呢这个过山车坐的还是有点猛

1
gamer8 @hash8867 ·

@weichonginsight His background in the AI ​​industry naturally puts him on the cutting edge of trends, but compared to seasoned investors in finance, he's still too inexperienced and has been targeted by Wall Street.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 他AI行业出身天然站在趋势线上,做金融比起老钱还是太嫩了,被华尔街街围猎了

1 1
hanqing @hanqing1120 ·

@weichonginsight Earned 24 billion in two years, lost 20 billion in six days – that's faster than AI evolution. The direction was right, but leverage doesn't care about the direction; it only cares how long you can hold out.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 两年赚240亿,六天亏200亿,这速率比AI进化还快。方向看对了,但杠杆不问方向,只问你能撑到哪天。

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15 replies whose parent comment X withheld

乔巴的吃瓜笔记 @wobuliangren ·

@weichonginsight It's not my money, it's fine.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 不是自己的钱,没事

1 1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@wobuliangren He lost so much money, shouldn't he bear some responsibility?

original · zh

@wobuliangren 他亏了这么多,应该多少也要担些责吧

1 1
马红梅(X上最性感的人) @muhanmode123 ·

@weichonginsight The more you want to make money, the more you lose. The more money you have and the more you can sit back and relax, the more money you make. When you're too eager to make money, your human weaknesses are exposed, and you're prone to exploding.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 越想赚钱的 越亏。越是不差钱 稳坐钓鱼台的 越是赚钱。太想赚钱了 人性的弱点就显露了 就容易爆炸

1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@muhanmode123 Yes, when making money, the brain weakens risk control, leading to high leverage and heavy positions, and one mistake can wipe out the entire account.

original · zh

@muhanmode123 是的,赚钱时候大脑就会弱化风险控制,上大杠杆,重仓搞,错一次全爆仓。

1 1
乔巴的吃瓜笔记 @wobuliangren ·

@weichonginsight I don't know.

original · ja

@weichonginsight 不知道啊

马红梅(X上最性感的人) @muhanmode123 ·

@weichonginsight Hahaha, you can win countless times but you can't lose even once.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 哈哈哈 可以赢无数次 但不能输一次

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Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@muhanmode123 Yes, that's how it is with cryptocurrency trading. Many people with large sums of money, who should theoretically have an advantage, still can't resist the temptation to go all in, and end up getting liquidated and forced to leave the market.

original · zh

@muhanmode123 是的,炒币的就是这样。很多大资金的,按理说有优势,但是还是经不起诱惑,重仓梭哈,最后都爆仓离场。

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马红梅(X上最性感的人) @muhanmode123 ·

@weichonginsight Haha, a margin call is the real outcome.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 哈哈 爆仓才是结局

1 1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@muhanmode123 I think this is the outcome for most people who use excessive leverage.

original · zh

@muhanmode123 我觉得大部分开大杠杆的结局是这样的。

1 1
宝爱金豆 @longtian168 ·

@weichonginsight I feel like with a hundred million US dollars, I could live a very comfortable life.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 感觉一个亿美金,我这辈子都可以很爽啊。

1 1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@longtian168 You could spend it all in several lifetimes, as long as you don't invest recklessly. 😁

original · zh

@longtian168 几辈子都花不完,只要你不乱投资😁

gamer8 @hash8867 ·

@weichonginsight I think he's more like someone trying to scam deposits and run a Ponzi scheme, even though the fund he's created is just using other people's money.

original · zh

@weichonginsight 我看他更像拉存款干资金盘的,虽然搞了这么一个基金都是拿别人钱玩的

1 1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@hash8867 It's all a mix of truth and fiction. The financial world also relies on storytelling and packaging. His resume is very impressive, which gives him a significant advantage in running a Ponzi scheme.

original · zh

@hash8867 真真假假吧,金融圈也是靠讲故事和包装的。他的履历非常OK,搞资金盘就很有优势。

1 1
gamer8 @hash8867 ·

@weichonginsight How can you promote yourself and attract investment without writing a book?

original · zh

@weichonginsight 不写本书怎么好吹起来拉投资

1
Chong Wei 韦冲 @weichonginsight ·

@hash8867 That's right.

original · zh

@hash8867 是这样的。

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