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0xchubai
初白
@0xchubai

同样是重金砸 AI,为什么微软财报后暴涨超过 15%,隔壁 Meta 却暴跌了约 8%? 很多人想:Meta 的 AI 是不是玩砸了? 我感觉真不是。这次市场大动干戈,没有在赌哪家的技术更强,这当中有一笔极其现实的账:你买回来的这些显卡和服务器,到底什么时候能够开机,什么时候能够收钱? 两家公司今年都准备拿出上千亿美元建设 AI 相关基础设施。差别在于,如果非要打个比方,微软更像做“现结”,Meta 更像做“赊账”。 先看微软。微软现在非常纯粹,就是 AI 时代的“算力出租商”外加“软件加价狂魔”,微软砸钱把数据中心盖好,把算力接进 Azure,再直接租给企业。这个季度,Azure 及其他云服务收入增长了 43%,微软预计下一季度还会保持约 45% 的增长。新增算力正在快速转化成云业务收入。 另一边,它又把 Copilot 塞进 Word、Excel、Teams 和 GitHub 这些企业本来就在用的软件里,按席位或者使用量继续收钱。现在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 的付费席位已经突破 3000 万,微软手里的“预定订单”已经堆到了 6780 亿美元。所以,哪怕微软这个季度的自由现金流同比下降了 23%,市场依然愿意给它拉出一根大阳线。 再看 Meta,情况就要纠结得多。扎克伯格买回来的一大批 GPU,目前主要还是放在自家机房里使用:训练模型、优化 Facebook 和 Instagram 的推荐系统,再帮助广告系统提高匹配效率。 这套逻辑有没有效果?当然有,Meta 本季度收入达到 608 亿美元,同比增长 28%;广告展示量增长14%,平均广告价格增长12%,旗下应用的日活跃用户达到36亿。 但问题是收入增长了28%的同时,Meta的总成本和费用增长了55%,研发费用也从129亿美元增加到了216.6亿美元,增幅超过67%,营业利润率也从43%掉到了31%,最夸张的还是自由现金流。Meta去年同期还有85.5亿美元自由现金流,这个季度只剩下7.84亿美元,直接缩水约91%。相当于传统广告业务刚刚赚回来的现金,很大一部分又被投进了数据中心和算力建设。 虽然广告业务变得更强,但Meta目前还没有跑出一条像微软Azure或者Copilot那样,可以单独计费、持续扩张的AI收入线。大家都知道AI推荐能够改善广告效率,却算不清这上千亿的投资,到底几年才能收回成本,风险太高,只能先给它降降温。 但这并不意味着Meta输了,Meta 手里握着全球 36 亿日活跃用户,这个底盘大到恐怖。一旦它的 AI 智能体(Agent)或者开源模型跑通了新的变现路子,今天被大家嫌弃的重资产,明天就会变成别人根本跨不过去的竞争壁垒。它只是需要更长时间,把这些投入转化成摆在财报上的收益。 玩盘前的友友都懂,最忌讳的就是“流动性差”。很多平台买一卖一只有零星几手挂单,随便敲个小额市价单就能把价格击穿好几个点,直接被滑点吃掉利润。 这次顺手对比了一下盘前流动性,在加密平台做 TradFi 这一块,Bitget 美股的承接能力确实有点硬核: 先看 Meta 现货: Bitget 上的 rMETA 一档资金能压到 11 万 USDT 以上,而 METAB 一档加起来才四百多刀,深度相差了整整 240 倍; 再看微软合约: Bitget 的 MSFTUSDT 买一档直接挂了 530 多万 USDT(1.25 万手),承接力远超 TradFi 同类合约,买卖价差也死死卡在 0.1 美元左右。市场怎么走有时是概率问题,但对我们交易者来说,盘口够厚、不吃滑点才是把利润真落袋的关键 如果把视角拉长到整个行业,这两份财报其实传递了一个对普通人更加明确的信号: 不管两家巨头的股价怎么涨跌,算力需求依然没有见顶。微软下个季度计划继续投入约500亿美元资本开支,2026自然年的投入预计达到1750亿美元;Meta也把今年资本开支的下限提高到了1300亿美元。 卖铲子、建机房、提供电力、存储和芯片的整条产业链,目前依然在疯狂扩张。 昨晚在存储和AI硬件上赚到钱的人,回本的人,都应该给微软磕一个。至于Meta先别急着笑它,人家同样也是存储厂商的大客户。

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replies reposts likes
57 replies collected of 89 X reports
Miya @70Seven_Qi · 13K

@0xchubai The gap in monetization of computing power is too obvious.

original · zh

@0xchubai 算力变现差距太明显

阿朱体验用全球节点加速器 @xforcecheer ·

@0xchubai The analogy of cash payment and credit is very apt; the market does indeed value cash collection more.

original · zh

@0xchubai 现结和赊账这个比喻很到位,市场确实更看现金回收。

king |买美股上币安 @kingzw888 ·

@0xchubai Ultimately, the market isn't about judging whose AI is smarter, but rather which company's AI can extract money from servers faster.

original · zh

@0xchubai 说到底市场不是在评选谁的 AI 更聪明,而是在算谁家的 AI 更快把钱从服务器里榨出来

阿军 蓝鸟会 | @LuoKemin94871 ·

@0xchubai It's a pity I didn't get this.

original · zh

@0xchubai 可惜了,我没有入这个。

我再吃一小口 @wzcyxk ·

@0xchubai meta A lot of money was spent, but nothing was accomplished.

original · zh

@0xchubai meta钱没少花,事没办成

小赵|🕊️| @zhoguwn2782184 · 15K

@0xchubai I didn't get any of this.

original · zh

@0xchubai 这波我没有吃到

撸毛吃猪脚饭 @mnmn94253156337 · 13K

@0xchubai ai has only just begun, and there's more to come.

original · zh

@0xchubai ai才刚刚开始 后面更好

Ada哒哒哒🐬/买美股上币安 @ada0211dada ·

@0xchubai Look at you, you're so lazy you can't even provide a picture! I'll beat you to death!

original · zh

@0xchubai 你看你懒的 图都不配~~~ 打死你

1 1
ProvenDaily🔶BNB @proven018 · 16K

@0xchubai meta is still young! Microsoft is the real deal.

original · zh

@0xchubai meta还是年轻!微软才是硬的

苏颖|Nini🐈 @SCY_BTC · 14K

@0xchubai You've eaten too much, and you've made too much money.

original · ja

@0xchubai 你又吃麻了,你又赚麻了

1 1
澳门驹哥 @0x_Info ·

@0xchubai I feel the same way about liquidity. Insufficient pre-market depth is really frustrating; even a small order can slip through your fingers.

original · zh

@0xchubai 流动性那块我也有同感,盘前深度不够真的难受,随便一单就滑出去了

小绵羊 @888CaterinaRomo ·

@0xchubai It's only a matter of time before the Meta's chassis becomes large.

original · zh

@0xchubai Meta底盘大只是时间问题

@0xchubai You understand it so well.

original · zh

@0xchubai 还是你理解的透彻

YuChen 大王 @YuChen · 12K

@0xchubai To put it bluntly, the market isn't about who has the best AI technology, but about who can turn graphics cards into cash flow first.

original · zh

@0xchubai 说白了市场不是看谁AI技术牛,是看谁先能把显卡变成现金流。

豆豆兔 @33333sc · 24K

@0xchubai How many people won big again last night?

original · ja

@0xchubai 昨晚有多少人又赢麻了

Skiff cc @Skiffccc ·

@0xchubai Hopefully, the meta-level performance will be better later on.

original · zh

@0xchubai 希望后面meta的能表现好点

Vesper @Vesper2536 ·

@0xchubai The key is to avoid slippery spots.

original · zh

@0xchubai 不吃滑点才是关键呀

加密旺哥 @TTZTTS · 35K

@0xchubai The market is now focused on whether AI investment can generate cash flow.

original · zh

@0xchubai 市场现在看的就是AI投入能不能变现金流

- 大洋 |买美股上币安 @AnchorNode · 10K

@0xchubai Make money properly, stop being a pervert.

original · zh

@0xchubai 好好赚钱,不要作变态了

1 1
Sixeared @6_eared ·

@0xchubai Teacher Chu Bai, please take care of the younger brother, he's starving.

original · zh

@0xchubai 初白老师带带弟弟吧,揭不开锅了

小汉堡 🔶 BNB 🦅 @CheesyBun0211 · 35K

@0xchubai That feels so good again.

original · zh

@0xchubai 又舒服了啊

俺是你牛爷爷 @laodi888 · 30K

@0xchubai Microsoft has really turned graphics cards into money-printing machines.

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软真把显卡变印钞机了

@0xchubai I didn't know you were so knowledgeable about US stocks!

original · zh

@0xchubai 以前不知道你对美股这么有研究啊

1 1
东方既白|买美股上币安 @Liamcat06 ·

@0xchubai Teacher Chu Bai, please take care of the younger brother.

original · zh

@0xchubai 初白老师带带弟弟。

HH @HHisnothing ·

@0xchubai AI 競爭進入下半場,關鍵不只是投入,而是變現速度

大圣|链上美股投研版 @DaShen06 ·

@0xchubai Whether the handicap is thick or thin isn't really a mystery; after a few slippage bets, you'll learn to behave.

original · zh

@0xchubai 盘口厚不厚真不是玄学,滑点吃几次就老实了

web3小金🔶BNB @web3xiaojin ·

@0xchubai You've made a fortune again! Help us out!

original · zh

@0xchubai 又赚麻了啊,带带我们吧

Crypto 阿飞 @BTCAFei · 43K

@0xchubai Microsoft's stock price rose while Meta's fell. Frankly, it boils down to who can turn their AI investments into real profits faster.

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软涨Meta跌,说白了就是谁能更快把AI投入变成真钱

유정 @PQTonX · 34K

@0xchubai Microsoft pays cash upfront, while Meta pays on credit; naturally, the market reacts differently.

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软现结,Meta赊账,市场当然反应不同

南山币胜客 @hungry_twitt · 16K

@0xchubai Microsoft has immediate cloud revenue, while Meta is still in the pure investment phase.

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软有现结的云收入,Meta还在纯投入阶段

忧伤の蛙🐸 | 买美股上币安 @Exobtc11 · 29K

@0xchubai Indeed, those who made money yesterday should all bow down to Microsoft.

original · zh

@0xchubai 确实,昨天赚到的那波人都应该给微软磕一个

君逸 @tkkyuantkk ·

@0xchubai Never mind, let's kill the meta first.

original · zh

@0xchubai 不管了,先把meta打死再说

K-Line @Maddere7 · 10K

@0xchubai Meta's free cash flow shrinking from 8.5 billion to 780 million is truly alarming, but Azure's 43% growth is impressive. I suspect the market just thinks Meta's payback period is too slow, but doesn't improved advertising efficiency count?

original · zh

@0xchubai Meta自由现金流从85亿缩水到7.8亿真吓人 但Azure增长43%够猛 我怀疑市场就是嫌Meta回本慢 可广告效率提升难道不算数吗

月月 @0008luna · 19K

@0xchubai Microsoft is still a bit stronger, but we'll have to wait and see what happens next.

original · zh

@0xchubai 还是微软强一点,但是还要等后续

eth Ming @BNB776 ·

@0xchubai Microsoft's $678 billion order is indeed frightening, but the 91% shrinkage in Meta free cash flow is also too exaggerated. I wasn't even this excited when I bought Nvidia stock last year. Which company do you think has a better chance of monetizing computing power?

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软6780亿订单确实吓人,但Meta自由现金流缩水91%也太夸张,我去年买英伟达股票都没这么刺激,你更看好哪家算力变现

CatNarratives老三 @laosanhemao ·

@0xchubai meta is so... ripping people off!

original · ja

@0xchubai meta太那啥了,坑人啊

币圈 . 麻辣烫 @Skyn2026 ·

@0xchubai Meta's cash flow of 784 million is truly alarming, but Azure's 43% growth also shows that Microsoft is aggressively pricing. It was the same when I bought graphics cards for cryptocurrency mining; asset depreciation was ridiculously fast. Guess how many years it would take to break even?

original · zh

@0xchubai Meta现金流剩7.84亿是真吓人,但Azure那43%增长也说明微软定价狠,我当年买显卡挖矿也是一样,资产折旧快得离谱,你猜几年回本

L💢 @Crypto_L92 · 38K

@0xchubai Stock price does not determine product value

original · zh

@0xchubai 股价决定不了产品价值

@0xchubai The people on the storage chain really had a blast last night.

original · zh

@0xchubai 存储链上的人昨晚是真的爽到了。

猪猪熊🐻 | 买美股上币安 @hyyuan99 · 10K

@0xchubai Teacher Chu Bai is so sad again

original · zh

@0xchubai 初白老师又麻麻了

探长 @donghu925 ·

@0xchubai Microsoft's recent financial report looks great!

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软近期的财报很好看呀

禹攸 | 上Gate玩事件合约 @qxgy88 · 15K

@0xchubai Your explanation of order book depth is really insightful.

original · zh

@0xchubai 盘口深度这块讲得实在

金狗阿飞哥 @JingouAfei · 11K

@0xchubai Meta didn't lose; the market just wants to see a timeline for returns.

original · zh

@0xchubai Meta不是输了,只是市场想看到回报时间表

币圈哲宇_ @zheyu115 · 23K

@0xchubai It's not that AI messed up, it's that the return on investment cycle is too long.

original · ja

@0xchubai 不是AI玩砸了,是投入回报周期太长了

0xZeno @0x10Me · 28K

@0xchubai Microsoft has high monetization efficiency

original · zh

@0xchubai 微软变现效率高

沛珊🌸 @GwendolynLlxrd ·

@0xchubai I'm so lewd 🦊🤸 Anyone want to give a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@0xchubai 我果然太涩了🦊🤸有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

灵寒 @LaurelCons1bj4 ·

@0xchubai I doubt anyone's more adventurous than me 🏉♟️ I'm not shady, just look!

original · zh

@0xchubai 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🏉♟️ 我福不黑不信你看

若雪 @AmandaMattexfn ·

@0xchubai I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 🎹🤗 I'm not shady, just look!

original · zh

@0xchubai 应该没人比我玩的开了吧🎹🤗 我福不黑不信你看

荷风🌸 @ElviraChapwa16 ·

@0xchubai I bet nobody's more adventurous than me 😝🍒 I'm not shady, you'll see.

original · zh

@0xchubai 应该没人比我玩的开了吧😝🍒 我福不黑不信你看

寄荷 @DebbyMacAruwjz ·

@0xchubai I'm so lewd 👍🍉 Anyone want to give me a sharp critique of my luck?

original · zh

@0xchubai 我果然太涩了👍🍉有人想锐评一下我的福嘛

7 replies whose parent comment X withheld

Ada哒哒哒🐬/买美股上币安 @ada0211dada ·

@0xchubai You're using Doubao? You're so lazy! I'm going to block you, block you right now! I'm telling you...

original · zh

@0xchubai 你用豆包呀,你太懒了,我要拉黑你,立马拉黑你,我跟你说

1 1
初白 @0xchubai · 10K

@ada0211dada I was wrong, and you still blocked me. You need to be taught a lesson.

original · zh

@ada0211dada 我都错了,你还拉黑,该好好调教你了

1 1
Ada哒哒哒🐬/买美股上币安 @ada0211dada ·

@0xchubai Running forward, immediately blocking you.

original · zh

@0xchubai 跑步前进,立马拉黑

1 1
初白 @0xchubai · 10K

@ada0211dada Teach me how to make graphics

original · zh

@ada0211dada 教教我作图

1 1
苏颖|Nini🐈 @SCY_BTC · 14K

@0xchubai You should take me with you.

original · zh

@0xchubai 你还是带带我吧

@0xchubai The goal is to open 1 account.

original · zh

@0xchubai 目标是1开啊

Ada哒哒哒🐬/买美股上币安 @ada0211dada ·

@0xchubai Didn't I tell you to use bean buns?

original · zh

@0xchubai 大哥不是跟你说了用豆包吗?

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