Daily Market Report #782 It is Wednesday, the first day of the new quarter, and the split between crypto and everything else has never been wider. Q2 was one of the best quarters for US stocks since the 2008 recovery. The S&P 500 finished up 14%, its best quarter since Q2 2020. The Nasdaq 100 ripped 25%, its strongest quarter in 5 years. The global index was up 13%. So while I spent 3 months writing about crypto bleeding out, the AI trade drove stocks to a historic quarter. This is the whole story of 2026 in one comparison. Money did not leave the market. It left us, and it went straight into AI equities. Crypto had its worst quarter of the cycle in the same 3 months that stocks had one of their best. That gap is the thing to sit with. US M2 money supply hit a record $23.1T in May, jumping $247.8B in the biggest monthly surge since 2021. The liquidity is there, it is flooding back in, it is just not touching crypto yet. Gold $3,973. Silver $57.59, still down half from its peak. Oil $70.27. VIX at 17.6, calm. The macro backdrop is risk-on for everything except the thing I hold. Bitcoin $59,240, down 0.3%. Dominance 55.4%. Tagged $57,945 overnight, a fresh low for this move. Fear & Greed at 11, the deepest fear reading in months. $139M of the $171M in BTC liquidations were longs, the same one-way bleed into the new quarter. BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP ETFs all saw outflows again, and the average IBIT holder is still down 40%. And Strategy did the thing. It authorized up to $1.25B in Bitcoin sales for reserves. This is exactly the STRC-driven forced-selling scenario I have tracked all month, now formalized. mNAV below 1, MSTR at $82, and the dividend machine now has explicit permission to eat the stack. Novogratz already said Strategy fear is what is driving the selloff, and Strategy just handed the market the confirmation. Solana is green again, $75.49, up 2.1%, the only major holding up. But the tokenized-equity crown slipped. BNB Chain topped $5.2B in tokenized stock volume and passed Solana. So the metric I praised Solana for leading a week ago just flipped to BNB, and the SOL green right now is the memecoin theme, not the institutional one. TRON also hit a record 3.93M active addresses, beating both Ethereum and Solana, with the stablecoin-rails chains quietly winning on usage. ETH $1,597, up 0.7%. BitMine pushed its treasury to 5.7M ETH, still marching toward 5% of all supply, while dormant wallets sold another $52.5M into it. The standoff continues, with treasury buyers absorbing everything the old holders throw at them. XRP $1.05, holding $1, and Ripple proposed an XRPL Lending Protocol letting institutions borrow against tokenized assets on-chain, a real utility add while the token grinds. HYPE $65.76, holding the highs of my universe, though 21Shares sold $1.8M of it, the first-ever reduction in a Hyperliquid ETF. Small, but the first crack in the ETF-accumulation story I have watched build. ZEC $408, up 2.2%, privacy still bidding back. Monero $308. BORG $0.1610, down 2.9%, giving a little back the day after MiCA went live, but SwissBorg is licensed and on the right side of the line that just locked Binance out. And the UK lawsuit landed: crypto investors are suing Binance and CZ for £150M over unauthorized derivatives sold to 1,700 retail traders, the legal bill for the compliance shortcuts coming due right as the EU door shuts. The stablecoin wave is turning into a flood. MetaMask launched a Money Account paying up to 4% on stablecoin balances from a self-custodial wallet. Open Standard announced OUSD, a stablecoin backed by 140+ partners, including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google, and Coinbase. That is basically the entire payments and asset-management establishment behind one stablecoin. LINK $7.30, the 47-bank settlement live in the background. DeFi has now lost $942M across 121 hacks in 2026, with Q2 alone at $775M, the worst quarter for exploits. The security layer never stopped bleeding all quarter. Trump’s disclosures also dropped, showing over $100M in crypto held, including $50M+ each in BTC and ETH cold wallets, and over $1.4B earned from crypto ventures, with $635M from the TRUMP memecoin alone. The president made more from one memecoin than most funds made all cycle. That is the top signal I have pointed at all year, in his own filing. Now the AI story, and it is the big one. The Fable 5 and Mythos 5 export controls are lifted. Commerce notified Anthropic that it removed the restrictions, ending an 18-day standoff, and access starts being restored today. The pressure that lifted them was partly the fear that China’s open-source models were catching up while the US handcuffed its own frontier, and Z.ai matching Mythos on cyber tasks was the proof. The whole episode proved how fragile centralized AI access is when one government directive can shut it off globally overnight. That fragility is the entire case for TAO, and it does not go away just because this specific wall came down. Anthropic also shipped Claude Sonnet 5, its most agentic Sonnet yet. The model race is not slowing for a second. What are you watching as the new quarter gets going?
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