Just want to point out a few things wrong/missing from this analysis to give a more informed take: The takes on being a bucket shop are silly so won't even respond to that. I don't believe there is some "Holy" level of leverage to offer that the CME has mastered. The key is safety and being able to properly liquidate positions. People trading on high leverage want high leverage, period. Crypto Share of Volume: Share relative to Binance is making fresh highs. Still at just 15%. Keep in mind since this is a % of Binance rather than a % of the whole, this can go above 100% in best case scenario (not saying this is likely). AQAv2: 90% of the yield from USDC is being used to buy back HYPE. This is known but the flows don't start until October. Addition of $150-200M to ARR. HyperCore Priority Fees: This was essentially 0 two months ago and a $20M ARR currently. This has a lot of room to grow potentially and is yet another signal that when this team ships, there is immediate uptake and boost to revenue. HyperEVM network fees: burning around $1M HYPE/month Ticker auctions: burning around $2.5M/year HIP-4: brand new, currently no significant contribution. Kalshi and Polymarket have demonstrated PMF for Prediction Markets. I personally am not very bullish on this sector but maybe I'm wrong. HIP-5 and beyond: the team continues to ship and most things they ship see real uptake. I could imagine them eventually launching options among other things. The Regulatory Fork: Most serious money is still not allowed to use Hyperliquid. Hedge Funds are locked out because of LP agreements, and MMers for regulatory reasons. Opening up the market to America and to serious professionals like HFs/MMers. This would be tremendously bullish on volumes and liquidity. I call it a "fork" because the downside case is they get lawfared out forever. If this is your thesis, I implore you to watch this recent interview that I will link below with the CFTC chair. Hyperliquid as a Liquidity Backend: we have already seen large uptake of builder codes as consumer-facing products such as Phantom and Fomo offer perps to users in their frontends via their builder codes. The best case scenario for Hyperliquid is that it becomes one of the liquidity backends for traditional brokers and MMers. If Hyperliquid can continue offering better pricing than CME (as they do on BTC/ETH/SOL futures), this could become a large source of future volume in the good regulatory scenarios. Staking Rewards and Community Tokens: Lazy analysis values HYPE at its fully diluted value. More careful analysis realizes 1) most emissions go directly to existing token holders 2) future community emissions (nearly 40% of fully diluted supply) may never happen, partially happen, or be redirected to stakers over N number of years. If 1 HYPE staked today = 2 HYPE staked in N years, the price is effectively halved today (ignoring tax distortions). The circulating cap is around $17B today, and this isn't backing out any supply, including that owned by Hyperliquid Strategies DAT, which is presumably off the market. Hyperliquid.
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