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C cobie
Cobie
@cobie

gg

@

I am not going to motivate you because if you need motivation from a stranger on a plane the answer is stay but I will give you the game theory your corporate M&A gig is a repeated game with diminishing marginal returns. year 1 you learn everything. year 2 you refine it. year 3 you are executing pattern recognition. year 4+ you are being paid more to do the same thing with slightly larger numbers. the learning curve flattens but the golden handcuffs tighten because every year the comp goes up and the opportunity cost of leaving gets more painful on paper this is a classic status quo bias trap. the payoff of staying is known and comfortable. the payoff of leaving is uncertain and scary. so you stay not because staying is optimal but because the asymmetry of regret is lopsided. you can imagine regretting the leap. you cannot as easily imagine regretting the years you stayed too long because that regret builds slowly and never hits you in one moment here is where game theory actually helps: in your M&A seat you are playing someone else's game. the firm sets the rules, the deal flow, the comp structure, the promotion timeline. you optimize within their framework. you are a very well-compensated player in a game you did not design. your upside is capped by whatever the partnership or MD economics look like. your downside is protected by a salary. that is the trade owning a local business flips the entire payoff matrix. you design the game. you set the rules. the downside is real and unprotected but the upside is uncapped and compounds in ways a salary never does because you own the equity. a $2M EBITDA business bought at 4x and grown to $3M EBITDA over 3 years is worth $12-15M on exit. no M&A salary trajectory produces that kind of wealth creation in that timeframe unless you are a founding partner the Nash equilibrium of your current situation: you and every other M&A professional are competing for the same promotions, same deal credit, same bonus pool. the competition is fierce because the players are identical. same schools, same skills, same hours. you are in a crowded equilibrium where everyone works 80 hours to stay in the same relative position local business ownership is a different game with different players. the competition is a 62-year-old owner who stopped innovating in 2014 and a 35-year-old who inherited the business and does not want to be there. you walk in with financial sophistication, deal structuring experience, and the ability to read a balance sheet faster than anyone in the room. you are overqualified for the game which is exactly where you want to be. the best strategy in game theory is to play games where your existing skill set gives you an asymmetric advantage over the other players the timing question is about optionality. every year you stay in M&A your financial optionality goes up slightly because you save more. but your operational optionality goes down because you get further from the reality of running anything. the M&A guy who leaves at 28 adapts to operations in 6 months. the one who leaves at 38 has a decade of habits built around delegating to analysts and reviewing decks, and managing a P&L feels foreign in a way it would not have 10 years earlier but again. if you need me to motivate you, stay. the people who actually do this do not need motivation. they need a spreadsheet that shows the math works and then they cannot NOT do it. if you have the spreadsheet and you are still asking strangers for motivation the spreadsheet is not the problem

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40 Reposts 1 Quotes 1.4K Likes 452 Bookmarks
replies reposts likes
71 replies collected of 92 X reports
Suggs @Suggrnaut ·
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twotymes ( ゚д゚) @eyecookmemes ·

@cobie A1zvkas7XaGYaV9ztokfN11VwaiNGHkhqGCi4AYwpump x.com/eyecookmemes/status/2039…

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Aris 🐂🀄️ @ACallsit ·

@cobie All this to bro not even reading it

Aria🫐 @Jeyyderh · 11K

@cobie did you even read the post cobie? x.com/Jeyyderh/status/20398575…

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benjii @benjii ·

gg Unc but the real meta is realizing M&A was never the game, it was just bootcamp for the actual one you spend 5-10 years learning to price risk, structure deals, and read cap tables… then voluntarily hand the controller back to someone else for a 7% bonus and a nicer title. Local biz ownership is the boss level: same skillset, but now YOU own the equity, YOU set the rules, and the competition is still using QuickBooks from 2009. the spreadsheet says it works. the only variable left is whether you actually pull the trigger before the golden handcuffs turn into a golden cage. most wont. thats why the upside stays so uncapped for the ones who do.

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hammi @hammi_ip ·

@cobie haaaaaa)?

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HED @little_HED · 19K

@cobie gg wp

cove @covetrade ·

@cobie thats just ur lane bro u know it

rené @spiritualgamblr ·

@cobie he coulda saved all that time and said just quit nigga

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shamrock @shamrock_gif ·

@cobie whats the ca lol

CapoBurner @CancelledPapi ·

@cobie best post in a while

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jpegs @jpegsjo ·

@cobie TL;DR - Build a fucking business or you’re gay

heat check @gambearler ·

@cobie Banger. Sounds like ai

Degentraland @Degentraland · 79K

@cobie You should sell a course on how to sell a business for $400m, making an additional $400m. Turns out that was the lesson of the course all along.

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basedpotato @bas3dp0tat6 ·

@cobie this guy was great when undiscovered now he’s gonna turn into another slop account

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Eve Fong @Ballsdeepeth ·

@cobie Asked for advice, get money twice.

DeAir @oxdeair ·

@cobie Every real information is hidden like a puzzle inside a silly comment. It only takes a real reader to figure/merge out those words out of that information.

Ddiggs @Diggs4Memes ·

@cobie THE RATIO IS HARD AF

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poor trader @poortrader69574 ·

@cobie Dont need your motivation... just a nice little advice from your long journey @cobie

Echo @BuiltByEcho ·

@cobie gg.

Uncle Jim @losingshekels ·

@cobie WHERE THE FK IS BTC GONNA BOTTOM OUT

Halloween 2008 🦔⛓️ @HalloweenIn2008 ·

@cobie Come on Cobie, don’t fall for this 2010 called, the era of innovating in the “small business game” is over. There are no more places to “add software” to

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Gin @ginboi_ ·

@cobie Can you dm me in regards to a Coinbase acc issue asap plz 😭

foowool @foowool ·

@cobie No re

mercur147 @mercur147 ·

@cobie yall know this is ai right

rxk | crypto satire @rxk581 ·

@cobie the corporate M&A to crypto pipeline is just trading one set of imaginary valuations for another except now the spreadsheets have fewer rows and more zeroes

Boubani @BoubaniOfficial ·

@cobie Facts

主任 |上Gate玩事件合约 @zhuren1992 · 16K

@cobie Game theory applied to real life decisions is brilliant.

gg.xyz @ggdotxyz ·

@cobie gg cobie

Elfa AI @elfa_ai · 11K

@cobie explain like I'm a purple cat @grok

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⚡️ Apex (👹,🐝) @ApexOnChain ·

@cobie literally

Alloy S. - #Biblical @AlloySatsonacci ·

@cobie "Sup, G? I think someone is trying to kill me!" 😎

bronze5 @rulerofbronze5 ·

@cobie I dig it

? @W00_am_1 ·

@cobie year 4 is when you realize you're optimizing someone else's exit, not yours

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SAVSOSA @SAVS0SA ·

@cobie $easter is tomorrow did you see the grok shit they did?

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie interesting perspective

Nina Ivankova @NinaIvanko7emk ·

@cobie That’s interesting 🤨

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie facts. market's been signaling this

dulce ruiz sanchez @candydat ·

@cobie gg wp

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie watching this closely 👀

Crypto Worm @CryptoWorm72 ·

@cobie @cobie gg indeed, ser. Bitcoin just mooned past while tradfi suits are still busy shorting their retirement funds—what’s the play here, ser?

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie interesting take. market structure still looks shaky tho

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie watching this closely 👀

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie the data backs this up. on-chain showing similar signals

colondam @colondam5 ·

@cobie have you considered the macro implications?