Parlays are the golden goose of sports betting. They make up ~ 30% of bets but account for 70%+ of sportsbook revenue. the hold on a parlay is 20-30% vs 5% on straight bets, its insane margins But on chain? parlays dont exist in a meaningful way . The problem is liquidity. You need someone to take the other side of every bet and the combinatorics explode fast. chiefs ML + mahomes 300 yards + over 48.5 is a completely different position than chiefs ML + kelce TD. you cant spin up a market for every combination So how do you solve it? You dont need a market for every parlay. You need a vault thats willing to be the house. Think about how hyperliquid works. LPs deposit USDC into HLP, the vault market makes against traders, and depositors share in the pnl. Now apply that to parlays. users deposit into a vault, the vault takes the other side of parlay bets, and LPs earn yield from the house edge. when bettors lose (which is most of the time with parlays) the vault profits. When they win the vault pays out, over thousands of bets the math works in the vaults favor because of the vig built into odds Why this works for parlays specifically: The hold is massive. 20-30% expected profit on handle vs 5% on straight bets. LPs get way better unit economics than being a perp counterparty outcomes are uncorrelated. chiefs losing doesnt affect the lakers game. risk spreads across hundreds of events which smooths variance. You dont need to model every parlay combination. just pull odds from underlying markets, multiply the probabilities, add your vig. pricing is derived not constructed. Lockup period solves the "flee before settlement" problem. LPs cant withdraw right before a big game settles and leave others holding the bag The real question is can you get users placing bets. without volume the vault just sits there, but thats exactly the part im not worried about. Ive built consumer products to millions of users before and distribution is what i know how to do. The team behind @OverHerdXYZ is building this and embedding it in something new soon...
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