OnTheRice beta update: the ledger now shows 3 misses as well as 19 hits

I’m building OnTheRice at https://new.ontherice.org/ as a Beta research desk for people who want to understand market and economic changes without a finance background. My path here includes PSLE 147 and the Normal Technical stream. The vision is “Bloomberg for ordinary people,” with no Bloomberg affiliation. The motto is “See the world early.” This morning’s ledger update is a useful test of the product’s transparency. As checked on 12 October 2026 at 09:02:18 SGT, the selected cohort showed 19 hits and 3 misses across 22 resolved calls: 86.36%. Compared with the prior snapshot, both the hit and miss counts increased; the miss stays visible. The ledger also lists 84 included calls, 61 pending, 1 unverifiable and 20 cancelled at market close. Accuracy here is hits divided by resolved calls for this selected cohort. It is not the whole platform’s track record or the chance that a new call succeeds. The system is meant to be easy to follow: find a change, check its sources and counter-evidence, connect related clues, publish source facts separately from interpretation and uncertainty, then lock the reference price, direction and deadline for a price call. Record the result, including misses, and learn without rewriting the original call. Three signals published on 12 October 2026 at 09:17 SGT show the range: • Bitcoin (BTC): BULLISH over 24 hours, marked research pending. The page gives a 54% subjective estimate with limited conviction. It sees a broad short-term recovery, but says the weekly decline remains and fresh institutional inflows are not established. The price reference is indicative, not an execution quote. https://new.ontherice.org/signals/PDF-32be6933b7791151e8f38f3b-01/ • Ethereum (ETH): BULLISH over 24 hours, also marked research pending, with a 54% subjective estimate and limited conviction. Trading activity is improving, but the card says order-flow evidence to establish accumulation is unavailable. BTC and ETH share the wider crypto rebound, so they are not independent confirmation. https://new.ontherice.org/signals/PDF-32be6933b7791151e8f38f3b-02/ • Singapore haze and clinic access: an OBSERVATION with a 72-hour operational hypothesis, not a healthcare-stock forecast. It connects unhealthy-air readings with a subsidy scheme starting at participating clinics. The card cautions that not every GP participates, there is no measured clinic surge, and influenza also contributes to respiratory visits. https://new.ontherice.org/signals/PDF-32be6933b7791151e8f38f3b-11/ These are early, limited hypotheses, not guarantees or personal investment advice. Feel free to verify the live Signals ledger, original sources and recorded outcomes yourself: https://new.ontherice.org/signals/#prediction-ledger For other makers: does the updated ledger make it clear that the score can move in both directions? Which limitation would you want surfaced sooner when reading a signal?