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u/the_axe_effect 10 hours ago Stock Analysis

My attempt at Google valuation

Hi All, So I tried to evaluate google using a simple DCF Model and would be grateful if someone can feedback and give their opinions. Originally I tried to use Prof Ashwath Damodarans excel template But I found it to be too complicated. In Short this is what I did A) I listed all the assumptions that I made for Discount/Growth rate calcualtions B) I looked at the Q1+Q2 2026 Consolidated 10-Q report to find the FCFE = Cash from operations - Capex + Debt Issued -Debt Paid. C) Historically Q3+Q4 for google has \~ 15% Higher FCFE than Q1+Q2 because their Ad Business get a boost during Holiday Season, I used this to estimate the total 2026 FCFE E) Assumed \~ 12 % CAGR FCFE growth which I beleive is a very conservative estimate F) The FCFE right now of course doesnt take into account the insane debt that Google is undertaking for AI buildout, I am assuming that Google will take \~ 700 Billion more debt in next 3 years and they will need to pay this down, For Years 2 through 8 I assumed that Google will pay down this Debt at the rate of 100 Billion per year and I subtracted this from the FCFE. 700 B is an Morgan stanley estimate that I saw for Google AI Spend G) Discount all cash flows and estimate terminal values and divide the total stocks to get the present value of Google stock to be \~ 492 Billion which means there is a \~ 28% upside and I think the stock is a Buy based on this I Also belive this is a very conservative estimate, The last 10 year CAGR of Google is \~18 % and with AI related margin improvements in Ads/ Cloud Growth/ Moonshots like Waymo/verily etc, it is very possible for Google to maintain same CAGR even though its a mature company. With \~ 18% CAGR Loft estimtiate, The present value would be \~ 820 B (This was my original valuation but it felt stupidly high haha so I lowered my CAGR) Here is a link to the excel sheet where I did the DCF calcualtions: https://www.mediafire.com/file/c9edyxzrjsoj7rn/Google\_DCF-V3.xls/file
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  1. u/n55209 1 9 hours ago
    How did you handle the $700B? AI spending doesn’t necessarily mean borrowing that amount, and you’ve already deducted capex in FCFE, so there might be some overlap there? I’m also not sure 12% FCFE growth is conservative just because historical growth was higher, especially if the business now needs much more capital. I’d use Graham–Dodd/Greenwald as a cross-check: what’s Google worth on sustainable earnings without growth? How much AI spending is needed just to defend Search, and how much actually earns attractive returns from expansion? My StockValuer DCF comes out around $72/$124/$198. What discount rate and terminal growth did you use?