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u/lies_are_comforting
15 hours ago
Company Discussion
As a Nike shareholder I am worried about the Jordan brand
It’s kinda scary to me that Jordan accounted for 13 % of Nike’s total revenue in Q1. It’s a huge chunk. It’s the part of their business that I have the least confidence in. The Nike brand I consider immortal and while Converse has been on a downward spiral for years, I’m convinced it’s also an immortal brand. Jordan however I fear is only going to be trending for as long as people remember Michael Jordan. Like, imagine if there was a Maradona or a Pelé brand - would it still be popular today? Maybe but not enough to account for 13 % of a market leading giant’s total revenue. And the Jordan brand is starting to crumble. Sales fell 13-16 % year over year. I guess Nike’s strategy to reduce volume and make the Jordan brand more scarce like a treasure hunt makes sense but I don’t think you can do that and manage to keep it 13 % of total sales at the same time. In time, I suspect Jordan brand will only be like 3-5 % of Nike total sales. So what is Nike going to do to make up for that loss in revenue in the meantime? I feel like right now in Nike’s history as a company it is at a pivotal moment (stock price at 13 year lows) where it needs to discover the next big thing. And Caitlin Clark isn’t it, with all due respect.
Nike CEO Elliott Hill is very pleased with how performance running is going. Running has been up for six quarters and going and in Q1 it delivered double digit growth. People on Reddit discuss Nike running shoes and how that makes them feel confident about Nike’s future. The thing is though, Jordan brand sales are 1.5 - 2 times higher than all of Nike Running sales. So with Jordan sales down 13-16 % in Q1 the double digit growth in Nike Running isn’t nearly enough to offset the decline.
What do you think? Will the Jordan brand survive or will it keep declining? Will Nike performance eventually grow enough to offset the decline in Sportswear and Jordan? I can see them fixing Sportswear eventually. The P-6000 and the V5 RNR sneakers grew by double digits in Q1. Revenue from
Dunks were deliberately reduced by nearly 50 %.
But Jordan.. I’m not sure Nike can grow fast enough in other categories to make up for the decline that Jordan sales are seeing. But maybe they can fix the Jordan brand and keep it going.
I’m long 6,000 shares at $41 and was surprised to see the stock go below $40. Now, market leaders and analysts have sell rating and price targets of $24. I’m not worried about the stock. I expect it to touch $50 sometime next year and if things are looking good I will hold onto it after that point. As for the remaining 2-3 months of 2026 I think there are a few things that could cause a relief rally. I believe it’s highly likely Nike becomes a dividend aristocrat next
month. I also think Investor Day will be quite bullish and while it won’t change the disappointing guide of $1.25 eps next year, it could restore shareholder confidence that things will be better in 2030 and that might be enough to get a recovery starting now. Finally, December earnings I’m not sure about but the bar is low I know that.