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u/lies_are_comforting 15 hours ago Company Discussion

As a Nike shareholder I am worried about the Jordan brand

It’s kinda scary to me that Jordan accounted for 13 % of Nike’s total revenue in Q1. It’s a huge chunk. It’s the part of their business that I have the least confidence in. The Nike brand I consider immortal and while Converse has been on a downward spiral for years, I’m convinced it’s also an immortal brand. Jordan however I fear is only going to be trending for as long as people remember Michael Jordan. Like, imagine if there was a Maradona or a Pelé brand - would it still be popular today? Maybe but not enough to account for 13 % of a market leading giant’s total revenue. And the Jordan brand is starting to crumble. Sales fell 13-16 % year over year. I guess Nike’s strategy to reduce volume and make the Jordan brand more scarce like a treasure hunt makes sense but I don’t think you can do that and manage to keep it 13 % of total sales at the same time. In time, I suspect Jordan brand will only be like 3-5 % of Nike total sales. So what is Nike going to do to make up for that loss in revenue in the meantime? I feel like right now in Nike’s history as a company it is at a pivotal moment (stock price at 13 year lows) where it needs to discover the next big thing. And Caitlin Clark isn’t it, with all due respect. Nike CEO Elliott Hill is very pleased with how performance running is going. Running has been up for six quarters and going and in Q1 it delivered double digit growth. People on Reddit discuss Nike running shoes and how that makes them feel confident about Nike’s future. The thing is though, Jordan brand sales are 1.5 - 2 times higher than all of Nike Running sales. So with Jordan sales down 13-16 % in Q1 the double digit growth in Nike Running isn’t nearly enough to offset the decline. What do you think? Will the Jordan brand survive or will it keep declining? Will Nike performance eventually grow enough to offset the decline in Sportswear and Jordan? I can see them fixing Sportswear eventually. The P-6000 and the V5 RNR sneakers grew by double digits in Q1. Revenue from Dunks were deliberately reduced by nearly 50 %. But Jordan.. I’m not sure Nike can grow fast enough in other categories to make up for the decline that Jordan sales are seeing. But maybe they can fix the Jordan brand and keep it going. I’m long 6,000 shares at $41 and was surprised to see the stock go below $40. Now, market leaders and analysts have sell rating and price targets of $24. I’m not worried about the stock. I expect it to touch $50 sometime next year and if things are looking good I will hold onto it after that point. As for the remaining 2-3 months of 2026 I think there are a few things that could cause a relief rally. I believe it’s highly likely Nike becomes a dividend aristocrat next month. I also think Investor Day will be quite bullish and while it won’t change the disappointing guide of $1.25 eps next year, it could restore shareholder confidence that things will be better in 2030 and that might be enough to get a recovery starting now. Finally, December earnings I’m not sure about but the bar is low I know that.
55 comments held Reddit says 0 on reddit ↗
  1. u/slickback9001 1 15 hours ago
    The future is now old man. (Only joking) Nike doesn’t have the same appeal the used to to the younger generation, quality has been dropping for years and the willingly gave up their retail presence. Jordan is at least contributing to the youth presence and if you’ve never been a part of the community then you wouldn’t understand why it is such a massive brand in of itself.
  2. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    Young people buy P-6000 sneakers like crazy. They just don’t buy Nike Dunks.
  3. u/ReblWithoutApplause 1 14 hours ago
    I’ve bought more Nike Dunk Lows than any other kind of shoe, by far. I’m also an old guy in his 40s and have flat feet, though.
  4. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    Dunk revenue down 50 % in Q1
  5. u/Expensive-Notice-509 1 15 hours ago
    Under Armour 2.0
  6. u/Immediate-Run-7085 1 15 hours ago
    lol investing in Nike for the dividends
  7. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    Oh that’s not why I’m investing in Nike at all but right now I think there’s some worry going on that they might cut the dividend or not raise it and if what I think is going to happen and they do indeed raise it I could see the stock getting a little bounce from that.
  8. u/Bondrip 1 15 hours ago
    your title says you’re a shareholder? And now you’re saying you’re not invested in them??
  9. u/Fr0HiKE 1 15 hours ago
    "that's not why im invested in nike"
  10. u/gronz5 1 15 hours ago
    That's not what he said
  11. u/[deleted] 1 15 hours ago

    [removed] — already gone when the archive first saw it

  12. u/Hefty_Scallion7076 1 14 hours ago
    Strategy your grandpa thinks will allow you to retire at 30
  13. u/vladutzmihai 1 15 hours ago
    To be honest, in Romania I see a lot of jordans on young people, top 30 maybe
  14. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    Numbers don’t lie though and in Q1 (the recently reported quarter) Jordan sales fell 13-16 percent year over year.
  15. u/cokecantab 1 14 hours ago
    But isn’t this parallel to the overall trend in sneaker culture decline? We had this massive cycle of hype. driven by streetwear in fashion which Jordan is a leading legacy brand. Right now that just isn’t where fashion is.  At some point fashion may cycle back to sneakers in which Jordan will always be culturally relevant I think. We also may not revisit that in fashion for a while… but that period of hype post Virgil Abloh etc was just not sustainable. I don’t know a lot about business but it feels like Jordan rode the peak of a cultural wave that’s subsiding to a more normal baseline
  16. u/Jako_Spade 1 15 hours ago
    Lots of fakes
  17. u/TigerWooded 1 15 hours ago
    Need to revamp to a scarcity model, only way to save the dying sneaker market
  18. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    That’s what they are going to do, they said that during the earnings call two weeks ago. But can Jordan remain 2x sales of the total sales of Nike Running if they do that? Can it remain 13 % of total Nike sales?
  19. u/WiseDan85 1 15 hours ago
    I wouldn’t worry about the Jordan brand. It will be around a while. Idk if Nike would be something I would invest heavily in. Idk do people need Nike athletic apparel? Nope. Think you would be better off investing heavily in something that people need. Healthcare, consumer staples, maybe AI for future, energy, tech etc. Nike just seems like a mature company that seeks slightly overpriced athletic apparel that really isn’t “hot” if you ask me. Sure their stuff is cool but the market is so oversaturated. It would be a cool investment in the 90s. Now- idk I would rather buy Apple stock (probably mature also), semiconductors, biotech, consumer staples (if wanna lower risk).
  20. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    Right now consumer discretionary spending is low because people are spending money on rent, food, gas etc instead of footwear and sportswear. It’s a contrarian play for sure.
  21. u/Kantmzk 1 15 hours ago
    It would be better to drop the Nike branding entirely and rename it after Michael Jordan.
  22. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 15 hours ago
    Would a 17-year-old in 2040 want to buy Air Jordans at today's premium prices?
  23. u/rusty0004 1 15 hours ago
    jordan & airmax was what made nike "cool"...both are "old school" & so are the nike "fans"
  24. u/FewUnderstanding2214 1 15 hours ago
    As a Nike shareholder you should be worried about losing more money
  25. u/Not-reddit-yet 1 14 hours ago
    Why is that? Generational wealth rn isn't it? 👀
  26. u/FewUnderstanding2214 1 14 hours ago
    It’s the best opportunity in the market - nobody can create shoes like Nike
  27. u/cfbgamethread 1 15 hours ago
    Again another reason Jordan is better than LeBron . No one buys LeBron shoes
  28. u/Past-Option2702 1 15 hours ago
    That was a lot of words.
  29. u/mincedmutton 1 14 hours ago
    No brand is immortal. Bad management decisions can destroy any brand.
  30. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    Coca Cola?
  31. u/mincedmutton 1 14 hours ago
    Nintendo? Volkswagen? Heineken? There are plenty of established brands you can name. None of which are immortal. Some, like Coca-Cola, may be seen as less at risk of shitting the bed, but that risk is never zero.
  32. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    Nintendo, Volkswagen and Heineken are tiny compared to Coca Cola when it comes to brand recognition.
  33. u/mincedmutton 1 14 hours ago
    Brand recognition does not make the brand immortal. It makes it less at risk of ruining the brand, that is all.
  34. u/releasetheshutter 1 14 hours ago
    New Coke.
  35. u/cosmic_backlash 1 14 hours ago
    I'm not sure why anyone would consider any brand immortal
  36. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    Timeless identity
  37. u/releasetheshutter 1 14 hours ago
    But does that translate to sales...?
  38. u/waitses 1 14 hours ago
    It was a good run, but too many better options now Nike will fade away.
  39. u/No_Cherry_1423 1 14 hours ago
    The Jordan brand has in all likelihood transcended Michael Jordan long ago. He stopped playing in 2003 and frankly has very little to do with most of the shoes under the brand. Despite this, people still are highly interested in the brand. It is not 13% of Nike’s revenue because everyone still thinks about Michael Jordan very much. They’re just great shoes. I don’t know why its revenue dropped and what the future holds, but its not because of declining cultural memory of Michael Jordan, Jordans are a fairly immortal and iconic brand. As a matter of comparison, think about iconic auto brands; Ford, Chevrolet, Ferrari, McLaren, Porsche, Dodge, etc are all named after racers or industrialists but their continued popularity (or lack thereof for Dodge and arguably McLaren) have nothing to do with the memory of their namesake. They’ve taken on meaning and heritage beyond their namesakes. Nobody knows who the fuck Louis Chevrolet is, and people mostly remember Henry Ford, Enzo Ferrari, and Ferdinand Porsche because their respective brands perpetuate the memory of them.
  40. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    You make a good point. Still, don’t you think a considerable amount of Jordan sales are from people aged 35-45 who want to buy the sneakers because they grew up watching Michael Jordan?
  41. u/Aleyla 1 14 hours ago
    No.
  42. u/No_Cherry_1423 1 14 hours ago
    No. Those people buy Jordans, but they would probably be buying them even if they never watched him like the people ages 15 to 35.
  43. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    Fair point
  44. u/mightymouse1906 1 14 hours ago
    You should be. The problem really isn't as much Jordan is over 20 years from his playing days as much as it is there hasn't been a significant new Jordan release in almost as many years. Will the Jordan brand survive? Yes. Will it continue to be relevant? Maybe. But Nike has a ton of other issues. Hate to make this a referendum on you as an investor but if you truly have been paying attention to this company and the market why on earth are you surprised to see this stock below $40? What are you seeing that makes you want to hold this stock longer? Why magic have you cooked up in your mind that Nike coul pull out of its cap this investor day that would turn the sentiment to bullish?
  45. u/CallMeTrouble-TS 1 14 hours ago
    We were shopping for athletic shirts and what not for my son who is big into soccer. He doesn’t watch basketball at all. He definitely doesn’t know who Jordan is (okay he does). But everything Nike wanted to sell us was Jordan this and Jordan that.
  46. u/Friendly-Profit-8590 1 14 hours ago
    Jordan made Nike
  47. u/xampf2 1 14 hours ago
    I mean the stock trading at $24 would be like 17 times forward earnings. That's not particulary cheap.
  48. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    $1.15 - $1.35 is a trough rather than the new normal. The key is to distinguish Nike's earnings today from its potential earnings once its turnaround takes hold.
  49. u/Azurebbit 1 14 hours ago
    What turnaround? That's the problem. It might a loooong time before NKE is above 41. Just look at their chart, what are they going to do to change that? Bad management can ruin any company.
  50. u/AltruisticAnalyst 1 14 hours ago
    "I’m long 6,000 shares at $41". How long? How deep in the red are you?
  51. u/lies_are_comforting OP 1 14 hours ago
    I bought 6,000 shares for $41 per share. The stock is now $34.7.
  52. u/soapbark 1 14 hours ago
    I used to be a Nike guy, but Skechers is quite innovative and I’m a fan of their pickleball lineup and general creativity. Haven’t bought Nikes in years.
  53. u/skcus_um 1 14 hours ago
    Not a Nike fanboy but growing up, I've always had one or two Nike products at all times even though I never went out of my way to acquire them - the brand was so ubiquitous that it'd end up in my possession anyway; be it a gift or an on-sale item that I came across. But I haven't had any Nike stuff in a while. It's like this brand has vanished from the ether. Even in shoe stores now I don't see Nike. I see Nike being talked about more often on investing forum than on fashion/sports forum. Lol. That's not a good sign. Nike is just another brand. Once a company lost the crown, it's near impossible to get it back. Nike was a giant, it was the king of an era that consisted of MJ, Kobe, Ronaldo (the original one). That era is in the past. Nowadays when you mention Ronaldo, fans thinks of the Portuguese player. Lol. Imo, it will continue to fade away as the newer fresher brands fight for the crown. The Gen Alpha and the Gen Beta will look at this brand as their grandpa's brand.
  54. u/Primary_Ads 1 14 hours ago
    why cant Nike just make another Jordan brand with a new athele?
  55. u/SocratesDaSophist 1 14 hours ago
    Jordan as a brand is not strictly about MJ. I think the consumer will be averse to spend on discretionary items, unless there is a compelling reason. That's what Nike needs to offer consumers.